Jeg blir helt matt. At friske øker tar du med i oversikten, men ikke at døde også øker? Man ser gjerne det man vil se. Stå på

Er det ikke temmelig skremmende at antall tilfrisknet kun er drøyt 50% fler enn antall døde?

For noen dager siden var antall friske mye mindre enn antall døde.
Den positive trenden der spår jeg vil fortsette fremover:)

Nå lades det - FRO skal over 90 kr i rekyl innen fredag. Sterk dollar hjelper også på. Hannisdal mener det er soleklar kjøpsanledning og mener markedet vil normalieres oløpet av kort tid. Utbytte på 12 -14 kr om et par uker...

Range 9,60-9.70 dollar indikerer rekyl til - dette er et tidligere støttenivå. Kan det komme allerede i US i kveld?

This flu season alone has sickened at least 19 million across the U.S. and led to 10,000 deaths and 180,000 hospitalizations.

Det er vanlig influensa! Kun i USA. Hva faen er det folk stresser etter...

De må kanskje ha noe å gjøre på. Så hvorfor ikke dette?

Stresser ikke, men utnytter sjansen mens den er her og handler inn nye aksjer ved salg av andre. Er klart den aksjen jeg har mest av i porteføljen pr i dag.

Spot on! Jeg har for første gang på lenge syntes Frontline ser meget attraktiv ut. Har lastet opp i går og idag. Sitter stille og skal ha med meg utbytte om kort tid. Statistisk sett - vil aksjen gå frem mot q4 og utbytte.

Sitt hele året og hev store utbytter + en kurs på 140- 160 det smaker.

Hørt mye forskjellig om utbytte nå ved Q4. Varierer fra 0.80 til 1.5 dollar. Du noe formening Falco 1?

Dersom det blir 0,8 i utbytte, så er jo dette fantastisk. Det blir å såfall ca 7 kr. Og det på et kvartal. Det høres mye ut. 5 kr i utbytte er bra.

Ser at FRO er opp 19 cent i premarked us

Kan det tenkes at kineserne,har iscenesatt dette,for å drive børsene nedover?Det er presidentvalg i år,og Trump har fått aksjemarkedene til å gå i taket.Om markedene skulle "tryne",så vil han med stor sannsylighet få "æren"for det,og tape valget.Kineserne er ikke spes glade i Tump,og vil nok heller ha en nikkedukke.Slik at de kan fortsette som før.

Tja, rundt 0,80 til 1 dollar vil jeg tro. Kan overraske med enda høyere.

Kina er gale, men ikke så gale. Dette er ett hendig uhell for Trump. Kina kollapser.

Diskusjonsforum Uniten MED linker

What do we know , what are the facts surrounding this Wuhan Coronarvirus outbreak

Here are the facts - 21,000 infected, up from 220 about 13 days ago, 427 deaths, 25 countries now reporting cases

1) multiple incidents of Chinese researchers caught smuggling viruses and biological substances out of the U.S. and Canada , all connected to the high level bio lab in Wuhan within the last year. Wuhan is the epicenter of this virus.

2) Senator Tom Cotton (who sits on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees) in the U.S. on the weekend tweeted that the Chinese are lying , that studies show that patient zero had no contact with the Wuhan markets where the Chinese media claims the infection started.

3) Researchers in India last weekend came out publicly in a research paper saying that they found similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV in it's genetic makeup. That suggests this was a man modified virus. Then those researchers were forced to withdraw that paper and it was renounced publicly. But now we know that China claims to be successfully treating patients with anti-virals specifically used for HIV patients.

4) Both the U.S. and Canada have set up large quarantine facilities at military bases to handle incoming nationals , have we ever seen that before, not even with Ebola - the last time the CDC did this was with smallpox in the 1960's

5) U.S. has declared a national health emergency, all foreign nationals from China are banned , only traffic thru 7 airports will accept Chinese flights , all incoming must be screened and may be sent to mandatory quarantine for two weeks - if you travel from Hubei province you will face a mandatory quarantine at a military base for two weeks

6) All Cdn and U.S. airlines have suspended flights to China , this did not happen with Ebola or Sars - Air Canada early last week said the last flights would continue until Feb 3rd, suddenly on Jan 28th they said no more flights abandoning all booked passengers beyond Jan 30th

7) China has gone to extraordinary lengths to suppress information about this virus , particularly during the first few weeks - then once it was out in the public their efforts became even more extraordinary such as building a 674k sq ft hospital in two weeks. Note all windows are barred and it is staffed by Chinese military.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/coronavirus-doctor-whistle-blower-intl-hnk/index.html

8) Yesterday 3 cruise lines banned all passengers from China

We also know from the Cdn CBC news that two Chinese researchers have been caught illegally sending two highly dangerous viruses (Ebola and Henipah) from Canada to China just last March 31st on a Air Canada flight from the high security Winnipeg lab, that is an established fact.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-china-1.5232674

Both of those Chinese researchers work at the Wuhan lab and it is an established fact (by CBC news) they traveled back and forth from the Cdn lab to the Wuhan lab various times over the last two years. As well Chinese students working at the lab were also stripped of their security status and returned to China after the RCMP stepped in over a "breach of security". The Winnipeg lab is known for it's work on Ebola, Sars and various Coronaviruses, that is a fact well documented in the media.

From that article regarding those two viruses shipped:

Several sources, who have asked to remain anonymous because they fear for their jobs, say the pathogens may have been shipped to the Chinese Academy of Sciences in a way that circumvented the lab's operating procedures, and without a document protecting Canada's intellectual property rights.

Then it is a fact that on Jan 28th the head of Harvard’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department Charles Lieber was arrested by the FBI for working surreptitiously with Chinese Academy of Science in Wuhan.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/harvard-chemistry-chairman-under-investigation-is-giant-of-field-11580345484

He also works in this same area of study for the Dept of Defense and the National Institute of Health.

As part of that investigation Zaosong Zheng, 30, was arrested on December 10, 2019 at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged with attempting to smuggle vials of biological research into China. The vials were in his checked luggage pushed in a sock. On January 21, 2020, Zheng was also indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the US and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements. He has been held in jail since December 30, 2019.

Liebers contract was with the Wuhan University of Technology. Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.”

The FBI in their charge says Lieber lied repeatedly about these connections to the Wuhan research labs.

Vel,det som vakte min mistanke,var at jeg hørte på nyhetene,at kineserene nektet å ta i mot hjelp til å utvikle en vaksine mot viruset.Husker dessverre ikke hvor jeg hørte dette,så jeg kan ikke legge ved en link.

Update Corona,

Alle, som er blitt friske, minus 2 ( 1 Japan og 1 Filippinene )

er kurert i Kina. Se link

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Oil traders and sellers are making more inquiries for supertankers to hoard crude at sea in the latest indication of the crushing impact the coronavirus is having on demand in the world’s biggest importer.

Kjøp olje for $ 50, selg på 50 = minus kost av leie en VLCC som storage :;)

A growing interest in short-term time charters for use as floating storage has emerged in the past week, said traders, shipowners, and a shipbroker in Asia who asked not to be identified due to company policy. Sellers have been scrambling to secure alternative buyers for their oil this week as Chinese consumption plummeted due to the virus, prompting refiners to seek to defer cargoes as they cut runs and even shut down.
Supplies of crude for prompt delivery into Asia are ample, leaving traders with few other options to place their cargoes. A key global oil benchmark also flipped into contango, a market structure that allows traders to profit by hoarding oil to take advantage of higher prices in the future. Floating storage wasn’t an attractive proposition for most of 2019 as output curbs by OPEC and its partners tightened near-term supplies and kept London’s Brent crude in backwardation, when prompt prices are higher.

Floating storage isn’t profitable on its own yet, as the relatively small contango in Brent’s one- and two- month timespreads isn’t sufficient to cover chartering costs, traders said. However, the loss from booking an older vessel for floating storage is smaller than the loss for paying demurrage on a new supertanker while waiting to deliver a delayed cargo.

Two operators of supertankers, whose vessels can transport hundreds of millions of barrels of crude, also reported increased interest in storing cargoes since the virus-driven crude-price slump. Senior officials from both asked not to be identified discussing their customers’ business.

Very-large crude carriers used for floating storage tend to be older, less sea-worthy and therefore cheaper to charter, currently costing about $25,000 or less a day, said two shipbrokers in Asia. Demurrage for a newer VLCC is about double that.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/virus-has-oil-traders-seeking-ships-to-hoard-unsold-crude-at-sea

Couldn't happed to better people LOL

FRO avslutter på 75 i USA

Dødstallet fra det nye coronaviruset er nå oppe i 630, melder kinesiske myndigheter ifølge AFP. Hubei-provinsen, hvor virusutbruddet startet, melder om 2447 nye smittetilfeller det siste døgnet, og 69 dødsfall. 618 av dødsfallene kommer herfra.

Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded
"A closure of the world's manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. "This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport," Sand told CNN Business.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/

Coronavirus - 1) 24 day incubation period is debunked and 2) death rate a LOT lower than 2%...

Find below a link to a new 12 minute video by MedCram from today that looks at the coronavirus outbreak in China in detail. It is Update #15 and I also recommend the update from yesterday #14 but I will paraphrase the key points below. Please DYODD and watch the video what follows below is FWIW.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o804wu5h_ms

1) Regarding the supposed 24 day incubation period the reference is a JAMA article that just got published pre pier review in China studying 1099 patients admitted to 500 hospitals in China with coronavirus through Jan 29 2020. They measured a median incubation of 3 days and a maximum of 24 days. So we see that 24 days is an outlier and the likely explanation given that the median is 3.0 is that they actually got exposed to the virus at one point which did not hold and then much later they were exposed again and it did take hold. This is important particularly for thinking about R naught which I discussed in a previous post around the japanese cruise ship.

2) Of all these patients studied the death rate has been 1.36% so far. Note more will probably die - or succumb as they say - but these 1099 patients are being admitted to hospitals so they are probably NOT in the group of 82% of infected that have mild or no symptoms as they do not even go to a hospital. So - very rough and dirty math - if 18% wind up in a hospital and of these 18% 1.5% die what is the total death rate? It is 0.0136 * ( 0.18 ) = 0.24% instead of 1.36%.

3) Another point I found interesting is that 60% admitted to hospitals in this case were men - is this related to smoking as 50% of Chinese men smoke vs 2% women?

4) At the end of the video he talks about "compassionate use" of medicines that are not proven in double blind studies with placebos to work on coronavirus - this is what happened in Thailand. The implication in my thinking here is that with the testing going on now just by trial and error they will probably come up with some effective cocktails of drugs probably already being leaked out because new SP highs are not possible if market smells armageddon is coming. If death rate is just 0.24% and drops further this is a another flu just that the herd resistance is zero...China drastic action is buying time and once they get the cocktail down possibly in a week or two the entire country fires up again...smog back to normal levels...with a vengeance as Xi and the commies need to survive politically...

Feil, her er en ny rapport fra Los Alamos National Labratory. R0 på mellom 4.7 og 6.6!
Altså hver smittede person smitter mellom 4 og 7 personer!
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

Denne medrxiv.org - kilden ser jo troverdig ut...

Hvis smittetallet R0 er så høyt som 4,7 - 6,6, så ligner det en virussykdom som det blir veldig vanskelig å få kontroll med på kort tid. Her er det nok i aller beste fall snakk om få måneder.

Hvor mange som er smittet i Kina får vi nok aldri vite, men jeg leste i går at ca. 500 millioner kinesere nå er underlagt en form for karantene . Men også at myndighetene har vært tvunget til å redusere karantenen i mange storbyer for at samfunnet ikke skulle gå helt i stå, og befolkningen ikke mister livsnødvendige forsyninger av mat m.m.

Dessverre ser dette ut til å bli en nokså langvarig krise med store omkostninger for både mennesker og verdensøkonomien. Jeg blir overrasket hvis dette ikke også vil sende aksjemarkedet markant lavere i løpet av få måneder.

Time will tell.

PS.: Ellers forundrer det at Indonesia med ca. 270 mill. innbyggere ikke er med på verdenskartet over smitteofre-steder, og at Filippinene bare har registrert 3 ofre, 2 land med nær kontakt med Kina, både geografisk og økonomisk.

Coronavirus fallout for ocean shipping intensifies.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/coronavirus-fallout-for-ocean-shipping-intensifies

Ja det er skremmende om det stemmer. Indonesia har sikkert mange tilfeller, bare elending helsesystem så vil ta tid før det oppdages. Du må huske at utbruddet i Wuhan startet en gang i månedskiftet oktober/november. Det tar tid før det blir utbrudd. Hvis ikke vi ser noe ordentlige utrbudd i Asia i løpet av 14 dager, kan vi prise oss lykkelige.

Jeg visste ikke at utbruddet i Wuhan skjedde allerede i månedskiftet oktober/november, har lest at det først var en gang i desember...

men ellers: En Corona-nyhet fra Singapore i dag viser jo hvor sårbart samfunnet er for denslags sykdommer. Mon tro hvor mange andre mennesker denne bankmannen har smittet før han selv fant ut han var smittet?

Coronavirus: Singapore bank evacuated after worker falls ill

Around 300 employees have been evacuated from Singapore's biggest bank, DBS, after one person fell ill with the new coronavirus.
All 300 had been working on the same floor, the 43rd, and were sent home on Wednesday.

Singapore had previously reported 47 cases of the new virus, one of the highest tallies outside China.

Mye mer her:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51470363

En person var innom en butikk i Singapore. Tror det var ett medisinutsalg e.l.
Flere ansatte smittet og flere andre personer er i ettertid blitt knyttet til denne butikken.
Var en turgruppe som var innom hvor turguiden også ble smittet. Usikker på om smitten kom fra denne gruppen.

Det at det dukker opp tilfeller her og der i Singapore uten noen tilknytning til andre tilfeller viser at noen "går løs" og smitter andre.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/10950656/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-london-as-officials-worst-fears-come-true/

Muligens i Trondheim og..
https://www.tv2.no/nyheter/11209508/

FRO var veldig sterk på OSE i dag men så fort OSE stengte falt kursen 3% i USA intradag. Kom det noen nyheter om rater eller andre ting?

Ikke som jeg har fått med meg.. Men contangoen er godt i gang.. 20 VLCCer brukes visstnok som lager pr.nå, noe som kan hjelpe litt på ratene.

Ja det kommer nok til å aksellerere fort neste 14 dagene. Singapore er jo en stor internasjonal flyhub.

"“You can’t get up to that level of cases if the epidemic started in December even if you pushed the reproduction really high,” says David Fisman, a professor in the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and one of the model’s creators.

“If you have a reproduction number of three, the epidemic could not have stated in mid-December because, according to the graph, it is undershooting the cases that were found in December.”

In epidemiology, reproduction refers to the number of secondary cases a single case can infect in a susceptible population.

“It had to be earlier, which raises some interesting questions about how this emerged,” Fisman says. “The plausible start date seems to be mid-November.” "
https://www.utoronto.ca/news/model-built-u-t-researchers-suggests-coronavirus-outbreak-began-november-has-yet-be-controlled

Capital: er det typisk gamle båter som blir brukt til contangolagring?

Fradrag elsker å hausse opp stemninga rundt viruset mest mulig, Han har hausset det opp fra dag en .Slik at kan tjene mest mulig på shorting. 30 januar påstod han hardnakket at 900 personer døde daglig av viruset. pr i dag har ca 1.100 dødd av viruset.

Det er ingen som tror at kun 1100 har dødd av virsuet per dags dato.
"Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new coronavirus.

But her death on January 21 will not show up in official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed her cause of death only as “heavy pneumonia”.

Her nephew Jerry Shang said she had not been tested for the disease, but the doctor said her symptoms – including a lung infection, fever and increasing weakness – closely matched those of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

By the end she was unable to walk, and the last the family saw of her was when she was being wheeled into the emergency room. The doctor told the family: “It’s the pneumonia that everybody around the country knows about.”

Local doctors have heard of many such cases and many Wuhan residents have complained that family members cannot get a proper diagnosis because frontline hospitals are overwhelmed in the face of high patient numbers and a shortage of supplies and testing kits.

Wei Peng, a community hospital doctor in the city, said medical staff were not allowed to list coronavirus as a cause of death when cases had not been confirmed and said later instructions had even banned them from listing pneumonia. Instead they can only write the immediate cause of a patient’s death, such as diabetes or organ failure.

He also said the problem was compounded by the difficulty in getting some patients to hospital in time. "
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never