Det har kommet et par oppdateringer etter REC sin fremleggelse av 4Q19-tallene i dag. ARC er den mest positive med en "Hold" anbefaling og kursmål 3,00, mens SB1M sier de med all sannsynlighet vil gjenta sin "Selg" anbefaling og kursmål 1,00. I tillegg er det sluppet en morgenrapport hvor det påpekes at en mulig positiv bevegelse i dag er en salgsmulighet. Her er detaljene for de som er interessert:

ARC:

"REC Silicon ASA
Recommendation: Hold · Target Price: NOK 3.0 · Current Share Price: NOK 3.96

Butte still up for sale - no price indication yet
Butte EBITDA of USD 5.3m somewhat weaker than expected
No news relating to the divestment process or the indemnity loan claim
The battery option remains a key topic – alluding to possible pilot testing
More upbeat Moses Lake comments should offset weaker Butte results

Butte performance somewhat weaker than expected
REC reported Q4 revenues of USD 31.8m, primarily driven by Butte, but also with some contribution from Moses Lake (sale of inventory). The EBITDA on company level amounted to USD -3,0m, and perhaps more importantly, the standalone Butte EBITDA stood at USD 5.3m, weaker than expected on higher costs and lower ASP. This is a key number as it is likely to have an impact on the potential bids REC will receive for its Butte plant. The cash balance of USD 29m was somewhat below our estimate (USD 35m), where the miss largely owes to a weaker Butte contribution and unfavourable working capital movements.

No news relating to the indemnity loan claim
20 December last year, the company announced that it had received a claim of USD ~17m from Nordea under the indemnification loan. At that point, the company commented that it would consider the claim and its basis, and revert with further information once it has reached its conclusions. So far, it seems that no conclusions are drawn, but our understanding is that it is not unlikely that payment must be made this year, which would put pressure on the company’s liquidity and increase the urgency of a successful Butte sale.

The investment case remains open
Given a successful Butte sale at a decent price (>USD 200m), REC can focus entirely on maximizing the value of Moses Lake. In our view, this is best done through exploring the battery option (providing silane gas to battery anodes). All technical and commercial risks/challenges associated with pursuing that option is however hard to predict at this point. Link to webcast: https://channel.royalcast.com/webcast/hegnarmedia/20200214_5/

Arctic Securities AS
Daniel Stenslet"

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SB1M:

"Q4 2019 first look: EBITDA of USD-3.0m below our estimated of USD2.0m and unfavorable revenue mix

SpareBank1 Markets acted as Sole Bookrunner in connection with the Private Placement in REC Silicon.

Conclusion
REC reported weaker than expected Q4 2019 figures, with an EBITDA of USD-3.0m versus our estimate of NOK2.0m. The revenue mix is also unfavorable, as Butte is delivering very disappointing results with an EBITDA of USD5.3m versus our estimate of USD12.3m, due to an 8.2% and 13.0% price reduction in silane gas and semiconductor polysilicon respectively. We have previously highlighted the risk of the silane gas market becoming oversupplied, and the results today are not good for the sales process of Butte, which we believe will be difficult to achieve at a value accretive level for shareholders. Bondholders should also start to focus as the USD110m outstanding is >5x annualized Q4 2019 EBITDA (not adjusting for seasonal effects). On the positive note, REC has some slides on opportunities within the battery industry, which shareholders usually like to focus on. In general, we are very positive towards the battery industry over the next decade, but it is very difficult the determine the winning technology as there are many different solutions with and without silicon.

In sum, we believe the current fundamentals should outweigh long-term speculations and expect to reiterate our Sell recommendation and target of NOK1.0 after today’s report. The markets are weak, the cash position of USD29m is getting low, and as opposed to the battery technology which are years away from mass production, we believe the company could need external financing within the coming months.

Best regards,

Jonas Meyer
Equity Analyst"

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Morgenrapport SB1M:

"(-) REC SILICON: Q4 2019 figures, EBITDA of USD-3.0m versus our estimate of NOK2.0m.EBIT -14.2m exp -8.7m. Very disappointing from Butte with an EBITDA of $5.4m exp $12.3m. The markets are weak, the cash position of USD29m is getting low, and as opposed to the battery technology which are years away from mass production, we believe the company could need external financing within the coming months. Share could react positively to the battery related slides in the presentation initially, in such case sell the bounce. Should trade down 5-10%. We expect to re-iterate sell tp 1."

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Det er mange som spekulerer i fantasipriser på Butte dersom dette anlegget selges. ARC, som var tilrettelegger for obligasjonen (og som "annonserte" hva det indikative budet var da), er noe mer edruelig i sin antagelse. De skriver (som det fremkommer ovenfor) følgende: "Given a successful Butte sale at a decent price (>USD 200m), REC can focus entirely on maximizing the value of Moses Lake."

Så folkens, da er det bare å "ta" den som deler slik dere har for vane å gjøre.

Ønsker alle en fin dag i solen :-)