ARC er ute med en oppdatering på REC i kveld, og de skriver blant annet følgende:

"Recommendation: Buy (Hold) · Target Price: NOK 6.0 (3.0) · Current Share Price: NOK 4.0

Restart appears to be more than a possibility
REC delivered Q4 results fairly in line with its guiding, but more importantly, the company was outspoken regarding its future strategy. Following the Phase 1 trade deal and an improving polysilicon market balance, there is definitely a rationale for restarting Moses Lake, also because this would enable a gradual transition into the battery market, given a commercialization of the silicon anode technology. Divesting Butte or raising equity are two funding options.

Trade war resolution and improving market balance could justify a restart
Last month, polysilicon became a part of the Phase 1 trade agreement. Though there is still some uncertainty related to how it will be implemented, it is our understanding that US-produced polysilicon now will have access to the Chinese market. REC will test its actual market access by sending smaller quantities to customers, and if accepted, this could lay the foundation for a full restart. Additionally, the ripple-effects of the massive Chinese supply expansions in the polysilicon market in 2018 are finally starting to play out – for instance Korean producer OCI just shut down production of 50,000 metric tons (~9% of global supply), while demand is steadily growing, thereby supporting rising prices.

Moses Lake could provide silane to 3 million electric vehicles in 2025
By replacing some of the graphite in a battery anode with silane, both the charging time decreases and the energy density improves. Should certain technological challenges be resolved, the silane market could increase tenfold to serve EV’s in 2025 and REC has ~70% market share (see discussion on page 3).

Target price raised to NOK 6 (3) based on probability weighted scenarios
Our probability weighted scenario approach points to a value of 6.8 NOK/sh, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x and a price of 11 USD/kg. We apply a 75% probability for a successful Moses Lake start-up (involving production execution that meets cost targets and quality requirements), and a 10% probability for a technological silicon anode breakthrough (see sensitivities on page 2).

Arctic Securities AS
Daniel Stenslet"