FLNG - FLEX - RATENE STIGER


Ser nå ut som om ratene er i ferd med å stige, etter at de har ligget flate en stund. Asia opp i dag! Snakket med en i lng-shipping i går. Det er større aktivitet i Asia nå og det meldes om høyere rater. Ratene opp 2 000 siden i går

-Lykke til
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 09:13 Du må logge inn for å svare

Akurat nå går raten opp hovedsakelig pga nervøsitet hos befraktere og importører pga en mulig skvis. Dette går fort over.
Det er ca 550 LNG skip i verden. Med den spotslutningstakten vi har sett til nå i 2020, blir det ca 31 skip som vil få nyte godt av "oppblåste rater" world wide. Så vidt jeg kan se har Flex 4 skip som skal sluttes fra nå og ut Desember i kvartalet. Deler man disse gode ratene på hele flåten (10 skip) som ellers går på ganske billige rater blir ikke TCE noe å skrive hjem om. På den negative siden er innseilingen til Sabine Pass (USA's viktigste LNG eksporthavn) nå stengt for LNG skip pga en rigg som har gått på grunn der.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Else
20.10.2020 kl 13:39 4445

Awilco LNG stiger med 18% hittil i dag og snart kommer FLNG etter. Rater på over 80k$ /dag gir store inntekter fremover.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Awilco vil levere underskudd både i 3Q og 4Q............
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
21.10.2020 kl 17:01 4389

LNG Rates Spot Market (USD/Month)
East of Suez 155-165k CBM
$83,000
$9,000

West of Suez 155-165k cbm
$83,000
$13,000
Oppgang på 9 og 13K er ikke lenge før vi ser 100k
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Fikk solgt ALNG til 1.55 i dag, ferdig med den aksjen. ser den endte på 1.26. Tok et tap riktignok. Kjøpte meg derimot opp i ADSC-me for samme beløp. Der er fremtiden mer interessant for meg. Ja jeg har troen på LNG derfor beholder jeg min satsing i FLNG selvom den er i minus, les dyrt kjøpt.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

-The first LNG tanker, 160k-cbm “Golar Seal” arrived at Cameron since Hurricane Delta shut a shipping channel that connects to the plant
.”Wilpride” and “Marvel Crane” are near Lake Charles Anchorage and “LNG Saturn” under the way to Cameron

-The first LNG tanker, 160k-cbm “Palu LNG” departed Sabine Pass since a channel closure due to a rig blocking
.”Flex Resolute” also departed the facility

-Disrupted gas loadings from Norway to US show supply crunch: Bloomberg
.LNG tanker “Arctic Discoverer” failed to load in Norway, delayed in US due to supply disruptions
.Several global LNG plants have extended outages, disruptions, helping to driving up prices
.Along with outages in Norway and the US, Australia’s supply -- Prelude FLNG and Gorgon facility -- has also been reduced
.Exports from Nigeria are down about 15% so far in October, compared with last year, and Malaysia also reduced supply

-During the period from Nov 2020 to Apr 2021, temperatures throughout East Asia (excluding southeastern China and western Mongolia) are projected to warmer-than-normal: APCC
.Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), northern North Pacific, and the subtropical North Atlantic, whereas strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central equatorial Pacific for November 2020 – April 2021.

-Scheduled natural gas flows to US LNG exports plants at 7.29 bcfd on Oct 19, -2% w/w

-Europe gas storage was at 94.8% capacity on Oct 18, compared with 5-year avg for that day of 89.2%

-South Korea gas storage in July was at 4.48 mt, -1% m/m and +32% y/y: KESIS
.LNG imports in July was at 2.38 mt, -8% m/m and -21% y/y

-Chinese coal futures fell for a sixth day as the government is expected to help boost supplies to meet winter demand

-Japan spot power prices slipped amid forecasts for below-average temperatures in Tokyo region, which could spur power demand for heating.

.”BW Pavilion Aranthera” and “Stena Clear Sky” are docked at Sabine Pass

-Total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days decreased 16% over the last week: Bloomberg
.LNG on water volumes were 1.72m tons as of Oct. 18, down from 2.05m tons the prior week
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
21.10.2020 kl 21:01 4350

Løs inn shorten du før du går på en megasmell..
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
sheepman
21.10.2020 kl 21:20 4394

MEGI-båtene til Flex har nok 10-15000 mer enn dette, så da er vi nok på 100 000 om en dag, eller to..
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Men når skal dette prises inn i markedet? Blir det etter valget? Oktober har alltid vært den mest skremmende måneden å ha aksjer i, les krakk. At FLNG seiler inn dobbelt av B∕E pr dag vet nok alle. Men hvor lenge skal FLNG være så lavt priset? Det kommer nok en stigning frem mot Q3 presentasjonen og mer etter det. Snakker vi om dobling pluss utbytte?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Har ingen short, men prøver å time en perfekt short innen en måned!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Til alle her inne som tror jeg kun sprer negativitet for morro skyld, kan jeg nå formidle følgende:

1) Et steam skip er fixet til $80,000 Usd/dag.
2) Cheniere har gjort en re-let på +$100,000 Usd/dag
3) En 155,000 m3 TFDF (Gaslog?!) er i diskusjoner på $110,000 Usd/dag
4) Et Indisk oljeselskap har mottatt offer for skip i Atlanteren fra $150,000-300,000 Usd/dag.

Jeg gjentar som tidligere, denne peaken blir kortlevd. Ca max 1.5 måned.


Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
fleken
22.10.2020 kl 13:56 4377

Hvor høyt mener du Flng kan komme til å gå på denne oppturen da? Det hadde jo vært veldig bra hvis de hadde fått fikset lange kontrakter på de to som kommer i desember.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Shagwong
22.10.2020 kl 14:00 4401

Trade Winds sier nå at : « rates for modern LNG carriers brake a 100 000 $ per day. Winter market finally kicks on back of higher prices and demand pull from Asia.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Vanskelig å si. Rasjonelt burde den toppe ut på max 70 kr. Men med den irrasjonelle LNG menigheten her inne som lever i nuet (om den er representativ for resten av markedet) kan den gå høyere.

Megleranslag for 2-stroke lengre kontrakter er:

6 mnd - $64K/dag
12 mnd - $60K/dag
36 mnd - $61K/dag



Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

TW:

Fearnley LNG put its rate estimates for ME-GI and X-DF tonnage up to $105,000 per day in the Atlantic and $100,000 per day in the east, a weekly rise of $25,000. The unit of shipbroker Fearnleys base its report figures on concluded charters.
The LNG market was alive with chartering chatter Thursday.

Brokers spoke about vessels offers in $150,000 per day range being submitted for charter business floated by Indian Oil.
Chartering sources said levels for tri-fuel diesel-electric ships are now "definitely past $80,000 per day" mark with questions being asked about how high they might go.

Talk was also circulating of $80,000 per day being discussed on a steam turbine vessel. Fearnleys pegged steam ship daily rates at $60,000 across both basins.
Brokers said there are just one of two vessels currently open in the Atlantic with what one described as "a handful" in the east.
One said rates have surged $30,000 to $40,000 in a week.
LNG players TradeWinds spoke to were clearly busy and upbeat.
The market was described as "frisky" by one and "red hot" by another.

Most put the heightened action and rate uptick down to the improved LNG prices in the east which is pulling cargoes longer haul and soaking up tonnage.
The news that there will likely be no cargo cancellations from the US in December was also fuelling the positive mood. Cancellations started in May as the pandemic kicked in, climbing to 45 in both July and August before slowly tailing off.
Talk of an impending cold winter was adding to the sentiment.

But some players cautioned that the market could still prove volatile, particularly if traders optimise and sell into Europe or further Covid-19 demand shocks disrupt the demand picture.

One broker said that charterers with relet tonnage are trying to cash in on the roaring rates by offering their vessels out on multi-month deals. But with the 2021 picture unclear there are few takers at the high levels they are asking.
"Everyone is having a bit of a party at the moment," she said, "but how many ships get done is another matter."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
fleken
22.10.2020 kl 15:14 4367

Er det noen som hvet om Flng har noen båter som skal sluttes i nær fremtid?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Else
22.10.2020 kl 16:31 4332

Fortsetter kursøkningen.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Else
22.10.2020 kl 16:35 4353

Asia, Europa og Oseania trenger LNG fremover. Selv om Ratene er høye nå er de lave ift hva det blir mot jul.
Flex og andre LNG var sterke denne uken og vi kan nok forvente nye kursøkninger fremover, og kanskje allerede kommend uke.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Flex Constellation jobbes til Mitsui for 10-30 dager. Levering Australia 21-23 November med rate ca $95K/dag.

Flex Endeavor åpen Atlantern nå.
Flex Rainbow kommer åpen Far East i November.
Flex Courageous kommer åpen Far East i December.


Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
fleken
22.10.2020 kl 18:00 4500

Takk for gode svar. Da bør det jo bære mulighet å få opptil flere gode slutninger de neste månedene.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
23.10.2020 kl 12:26 4361

The World’s Largest Oil Trader Just Sent LNG Prices Soaring

By Irina Slav - Oct 22, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT
Three trades for liquefied natural gas cargoes executed by commodity trading major Vitol made the company the talk of the LNG town as it pushed the Asian regional LNG benchmark up by as much as 20 percent.\




Bloomberg reports that the deals included one purchase of an LNG cargo from PetroChina, one from Gunvor, and one from Trafigura. The prices, at which Vitol bought the commodity between Friday and Tuesday, varied from $6.62 per mmBtu for the first cargo to $6.87 per mmBtu for the third one. Following these trades, the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark surged 20 percent to $6.761 per mmBtu—the year’s high.

LNG prices have received much-needed support recently, mainly from weather forecasts expecting a cold winter in the northern hemisphere and specifically in Asia. If the forecasts materialize, they will provide a vital boost to LNG trade as producers and exporters struggle with an oversupplied market that started well before the pandemic.

An excess in the supply of LNG globally had pushed benchmark prices for the commodity lower when the coronavirus emerged. Then they fell further, following the path of oil. LNG fell as low as $2 per mmBtu earlier this year, making a lot of production unprofitable. At the same time, demand slumped, too, leading to cargo cancellations, notably of U.S. shipments.

As summer ended and autumn began, LNG prices began to improve. Earlier this month, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported the average price per million British thermal units of LNG for delivery to Northeastern Asia stood at $5.50, and cargoes for December delivery traded at a $0.20 premium to those for November delivery.

Analysts from Refinitiv expect that global LNG demand will jump by 4 billion cu m this winter, to be led, unsurprisingly, by a pickup in consumption in China, Japan, and South Asia.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Det negative er at Endeavor har gått 1-2 mnd uten hyre. Det trekker voldsomt ned på gjennomsnits TCE.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
fleken
23.10.2020 kl 14:55 4331

Hvorfor har den det?Har det vært så dårlig med oppdrag?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

De har nok vært for aggressive på ratene?!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
24.10.2020 kl 19:25 4177

Positivt for LNG ratene i Asia.
Are LNG Prices About To Head Higher?

By Irina Slav - Oct 13, 2020, 3:00 PM CDT
Join Our Community

Weather forecasters are predicting a harsh winter for Asia, and while this would hardly be good news for anyone in the region, it happens to be great news for LNG exporters.

Producers of liquefied natural gas were hammered no less mercilessly by the coronavirus pandemic than their oil-producing peers. On top of that, the LNG market was already oversupplied—just like the oil market—when the coronavirus began its global march. As a result, prices for the so-called bridge fuel slumped to about $2 per million British thermal units, making a lot of LNG non-competitive and leading to delays in several final investment decisions in the United States.

While the FIDs are unlikely to be revisited anytime soon, spot prices are improving. The Nikkei Asian Review reported last week the price for LNG had hit $5.20 per mmBtu, which was nearly triply the price of the commodity this spring when the glut and the pandemic combined to drive it down. It is still short of the average of $6 per mmBtu, at which LNG traded a year ago, the daily noted.

This week, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported that spot LNG cargos to be delivered to Northeastern Asia next month averaged $5.50 per mmBtu. This is the highest price for the commodity so far this year, supported by worries about supply disruptions along the U.S. Gulf Coast because of the heavy hurricane season. But the main factor is the weather. Forecasters in Japan have said there is an excellent chance of La Nina developing, which would bring colder temperatures, hence greater demand for heating. As a result, Russell notes, LNG cargos for December delivery in Northeastern Asia trade at a $0.20 premium to the cargos for November delivery.

LNG demand normally improves during the winter in the northern hemisphere, but mild winters have played a bad joke on producers before. For now, all looks set for a little bit of ordinary amid the whole pandemic havoc, with Japanese forecasters saying the likelihood of a La Nina was 90 percent.

“We expect LNG demand to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter and that’s led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia,” said analysts from Refinitiv, as quoted by Gasworld, earlier this month. “LNG supply is expected to grow by three billion cub meters, led by the US. And when we put together demand and supply forecast, we expect the LNG market to be slightly tighter than last winter by one billion cubic meters.”

This would be more much needed good news for LNG producers. In support of this demand and supply forecast, the latest import data from China is also positive, with LNG imports going up to 5.96 million tons in August, from 5.19 million tons a year ago, Argus Media reported in late September. Industrial activity in China is improving, and rising LNG imports are one of the indicators.

Imports are rising regionally, too, according to Refinitiv data cited by Reuters’ Russell in his commentary. The data showed that September deliveries of liquefied natural gas to the continent stood at 20.68 million tons. That’s up from 19.86 million tons in the previous month and 19.44 million tons a year earlier. China’s LNG intake fell in September, but Japan’s rose.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
26.10.2020 kl 16:04 3943

With the onset of the La Niña weather pattern and seasonal restocking of natural gas inventories in the northern hemisphere, natural gas prices have surged over the past two months at major import destinations. LNG prices in North East Asia are now at their highest since early 2019 at around $7.25/MMBtu, +250% since the mid-year lows. Comparatively, natural gas prices in the US are now around $3.0/MMBtu, +90% since the mid-year lows.



As a consequence of the significantly widening regional natural gas price differentials, US cargo cancellations have fallen from around 45 in both July and August to five in November and an expected zero in December, according to S&P Global Platts. The economics in transporting LNG from the US to the Far East and Europe have improved vastly over the past two months, and we see a strong correlation between the US/Japan price differential and LNG Carrier spot rates.



Although these developments are in-line with our expectations, both spot rates and natural gas prices at major importers have risen even faster than we had forecast. With MEGI/XDFs spot rates currently quoted at $113k/d (vs our $84k/d average forecast for 4Q20), TFDEs at $98k/d (vs our $75k/d forecast) and STs at $60k/d ($56k/d), our earnings estimates for 4Q20 are under review for upgrade. We are already 12% ahead of consensus on top-line for FLNG in 4Q20, 6% above on GLOG and 1% above on ALNG.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Vitol alene sendte LNG prisene opp over 25% i slutten av forrige uke med kun 3 laster.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
28.10.2020 kl 16:37 3736

Ratene fortsetter å stige og har nå doblet seg på en mnd. Mens kursen går ned, selskap som tener penger bør ikke være på børs.

East of Suez 155-165k CBM
$110,000
$15,000
West of Suez 155-165k cbm
$110,000
$20,000
Så pluss på 10-15-K for Flex sine skip så ser det ut som det blir et godt kvartal.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Ratene har tatt seg en pause så langt denne uken:

Fearnleys:
The LNG shipping market slowed to catch its breath at the start of this week after the frantic finish of last. Many Charterers gave pause for thought as we saw the enquiry escalate as last week moved on, and this week Owners with availability kept the pressure up knowing there is a genuine lack of available tonnage ahead to match the current requirement.

Owing to this, rates firmed into six figures in both basins. Tonnage Owners currently looking for employment continue to hold out in hope that the gains some have made are mirrored for the vessels they have opening.

However, some of these marketed cargoes cannot support such high freight levels and as such, several Charterers looked at FOB options to move their product. Those with shipping in place, and the ability to purchase FOB, will be seeing strong gains as delivered prices in North East Asia jumped as end-users seek coverage for an anticipated cold winter.

Despite the lack of activity early on this week, sentiment remains firm with Owners and backed with some robust fundamentals, especially within the Cargo market, this lull is likely to be short lived and activity is expected to ramp up again. In sale and purchase, no newbuilds have been reported this week and pressure on prices continue.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
sheepman
29.10.2020 kl 10:15 3581

Skal videre opp!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
02.11.2020 kl 14:49 3360

LNG Carriers: Another week and another rally for LNG owners as TFDE spot rates surged passed the $100k/d mark. MEGIs are quoted +11% w/w at $125k/d, TFDEs + 15% w/w at $113k/d and STs +25% w/w at 75k/d.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

Du refererer til forrige uke. Akurat nå er det fryktelig stille. Befrakterne synes å ha dekket seg inn, 1-2 udekkede laster neste 14 dager. Nok skip. Siste halvdel av November og begynnelsen av Desember kommer det mange ledige skip inn i markedet.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
03.11.2020 kl 12:51 3133

Kepler Cheuvreux oppjusterer kursmålet på Flex LNG fra 79 til 113 kroner, melder TDN Direkt. Kjøpsanbefalingen beholdes, og meglerhuset mener selskapet kommer til å bedre kapasitetsutnyttelsen med tre prosentpoeng i perioden 2021-2023.

Meglerhuset har også beregnet rater på 70.000 dollar dagen i gjennomsnitt, noe som innebærer et 70 prosent høyere resultat før skatt og avskrivninger (EBITDA) de neste tre årene.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Else
03.11.2020 kl 15:55 3060

FLNG er nå klar for videre kursøkning. Vi ser no bare begynnelsen på oppturen i dag.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Lind2
05.11.2020 kl 10:57 2865

Nede med - 4% idag ..... kursøkning på hold. Er det "shorter" holdet der leger med os
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare

LNG shipping markedet har allerede flatet ut og nedgang er like rundt hjørnet! En mengde skip kommer åpne i Desember.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Else
05.11.2020 kl 15:27 2739

Som vanlig går det i bølger med denne aksjen. Men de fleste analytikere/meglerhus anbefaler denne aksjen som langsiktig, 1-2 år, satsing. Trenden er klar: OPP.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
09.11.2020 kl 16:22 2548

Uke 45
The recent rally in LNG rates took a breather during the past week. MEGIs are unchanged w/w at $125k/d, TFDEs softened 7% w/w to $105k/d, while STs rose 4% w/w to 78k/d.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:11 Du må logge inn for å svare
sheepman
09.11.2020 kl 21:56 2442

MEGI-ratene holder seg uendret og Golar opp 16 prosent i USA i kveld. Vaksine er på veg! Olja brutalt opp og gass er opp. Det underliggende er tilstede for noen kraftige byks oppover også for Flex!!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:11 Du må logge inn for å svare