Oljeprisen - spås ned. Pessimisme (selv om avtale undertegnes)

Thin Lizzy
OLJE 12.04.2020 kl 13:28 993

I realiteten er det nok utviklingen når det gjelder koronaviruspandemien som bestemmer alt, også her som overalt ellers.


OPEC and G20 Meeting Outcome Increases Instability in the Oil Market

Downward Price Volatility to Continue

Cyril Widdershoven
41 minutes ago (Apr 12, 2020 10:35 AM GMT)

The outcome of the G20-OPEC+ oil production cut discussion is very disappointing. The agreed-upon 10+ million bpd production cut is based on semantics and not on facts able to hold in the market.

After a long OPEC+ meeting, including a long list of non-OPEC producers, a disputable outcome was presented, with a Mexican standoff threatening even a full agreement until now. The position taken by minor oil producer Mexico has ransomed the discussion the last days.

Media coverage of the hardline position taken by Mexico, refusing to cut production as requested, and the meddling of Washington in the matter, has increased the fog in the oil market. OPEC leader Saudi Arabia’s attempt to quell some of the fears existing in the market that the oil price war between Moscow – Riyadh and Washington is continuing has fallen flat. Even if there will be an agreement in the coming days, to present by a full fanfare of politicians worldwide as a breakthrough, fundamentals didn’t change, and downward pressure on oil prices is to continue.

The last days it has become clear that there is a real power struggle ongoing in oil markets, in which the three main oil producers are heading to a High Noon Scenario and not a Mexican standoff. By putting up a fog of semantics, promising to stabilize the market, but in reality going only back, in the most optimistic scenario, to the scenario of before the OPEC+ price war started, oil markets are in for a nasty surprise.

History has shown that OPEC+ oil production cut compliance has always been a major issue, the only ones keeping to the letter of the agreement have only been Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and some other GCC producers.

Russia, one of the two pillars under the OPEC+ agreements, has never committed 100% to the agreements. To expect OPEC+ and a long-list of non-OPEC producers to cut the set amounts of the preliminary new agreement is the same as believing in Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny. When you grow up you get disappointed as the latter has been put in place to sweeten and fool kids to comply with targets set by parents

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/opec-and-g20-meeting-outcome-increases-instability-in-the-oil-market-643578


Pessimistiske toner altså, som i denne fra i går. Fra Forbes.

Apr 11, 2020,12:51am EDT

G20 Oil Agreement Doomed To Fail As All Earlier OPEC Deals Have Failed

Tim Treadgold

Price-rigging, once a globally reviled specialty of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has been legitimized by the world’s 20 biggest countries but just as OPEC has failed to control the oil market, so will the G20.

Working against today’s agreement of the G20 to try and reduce production and hope that the oil price will rise are the same forces that have dogged oil for a decade; rising supply and slowing demand.

To argue that this time it will be different because there are more countries involved in an attempt to limit supply misses the point that all OPEC members cheated on past promises to produce less oil, and what was hard to police in the past will be impossible in the future.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2020/04/11/g20-oil-agreement-doomed-to-fail-as-all-earlier-opec-deals-have-failed/#65646d4a65a3
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 21:44 Du må logge inn for å svare
Thin Lizzy
12.04.2020 kl 15:58 815

Heller ingen optimisme å spore på heimebane når det gjelder prisene, og som man altså kan lese i trådststart tror altså ikke skribenter ute på at avtalen engang vil bli overholdt selv om den (høyst sannsynlig) inngås...


Oljeanalytiker Helge Andre Martinsen i DNB Markets tror oljeprisen vil falle når markedet åpner.

Mexicos energiminister Rocío Nahle skrev torsdag på Twitter at Mexico hadde foreslått å kutte 100.000 fat per dag av sin produksjon, tilsvarende rundt fem prosent av samlet produksjon. Opec+ ønsket at Mexico skulle kutte sin produksjon med 400.000 fat per dag, ifølge Bloomberg.

Martinsen tror ikke at Mexico kommer til velte avtalen.

– Vi forventer at dette blir løst innen kort tid, ettersom det politiske presset er intenst, og avtalen er «too big to fail».

Oljeanalytiker Bjørnar Tonhaugen i Rystad Energy deler dette synet.

– Det er et lite usikkerhetsmoment her, men mest sannsynlig har ikke Mexico så stor tyngde i samarbeidet at de vil velte avtalen, sa han til DN fredag.

For lite kutt

Flere oljeanalytikere har imidlertid pekt på at kuttet er altfor lite for å demme opp for det reelle problemet i markedet, nemlig etterspørselen. Som følge av korona, og tiltakene som er iverksatt for å begrense viruset, anslo Rystad Energy i forkant av møtet at ubalansen mellom tilbud og etterspørsel i markedet til å være på 27 millioner oljefat per dag.

Flere andre oljeanalytikere har pekt på det samme: Selv om avtalen trer i kraft vil ikke dette være nok. Dermed vil verdens oljelagre fortsette å fylle seg opp,

– Dette er fortsatte et reelt problem, skriver BCS Global Markets i en oppdatering, ifølge Reuters.

Markedet så det samme som analytikerne, og ettersom detaljene begynte å bli klare torsdag kveld falt oljeprisen 12 prosent fra toppnivåene torsdag. Ved stengetid torsdag ble nordsjøolje handlet til under 32 dollar fatet. Amerikansk WTI-olje handles til 22,76 dollar fatet.

Det har ikke blitt handlet i olje siden. Dermed kan det bli store bevegelser i prisen når markedet igjen åpner natt til mandag.

Helge Andre Martinsen tror at dersom et ikke kommer noen nyheter, annet enn tilslutning fra Mexico, vil nordsjøolje falle under 30 dollar fatet når markedet åpner. Han skriver at tiltakene som er iverksatt er «too little, too late»

https://www.dn.no/olje/saudi-arabia/mexico/usa/fortsatt-ingen-enighet-med-mexico-innkaller-til-nytt-mote-i-opec/2-1-790859



Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 21:44 Du må logge inn for å svare