Oil - No Cushing Tank Top As Production Shut-In Magnifies

https://twitter.com/HFI_Research

https://www.teletrader.com/report-us-crude-inventories-up-by-7-58m-barrels/news/details/52137543?ts=1589317088882

Algos programmerade att sälja ner tank, kändes ungefär så när tank gick ner på allt.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/finance/machines-get-the-blame-for-great-tanker-stock-market-massacre/2-1-806859

Men nu börjar det närma sig roll over och jag tror contango får en comeback! Flera nätmäklare stoppar handel med juni wti kontrakt imorgon enligt rykten, vilket borde innebära att flera kommer försöka komma ut ur sina positioner idag/imorgon om nu detta stämmer.

Morgen

Har ikke selv kunnskap eller bruker ta, men de som gjør det sier:

Sett litt på olje traderes forum og syntes som de etter chart forventer litt oppgang
på brent i dag; for så igjen gå inn i Bearish territorie : ( jeg har ikke peiling ) Brent står nå i 29,60

29.45 is right in the middle, im not going to do so. I would recommend 29.20 for lp if it holds,
tp on 29.54, then reversal, if 29.20 breaks, then 28.50 is next resistance, and the channel change
to 28.50-29 with entering a bearish trend.

Vi får se om det har noe for seg .... da kan det være en god pekepinn for hvor Contango'en vil
utvikle seg på kort sikt, men, det er vel kun på kort sikt ?

Futures "All"

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1

https://investor.dn.no/#!/Oversikt/Direkte/53890

Herregud for en useriøs gjeng! ... Men, hva kan man forvente av et kartell hvor det korrumperte regimet i Saudi Arabia sitter i førersetet?

Mitt tips fremover er at kuttavtalen på 9,7 millioner fat neppe vil utgjøre mer enn 4-5 millioner fat målt mot Opec+ sin daglige marsproduksjon. Konsekvensen vil bli at contango forsterkes utover sommeren og høsten.

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/olje/2020/05/13/7527739/opec-landene-trappet-opp-produksjonen-etter-kuttavtalen

Nu är det huvudkrakk hos dagtrejdarna som köper olja borta i USA 😂

EIA visar att lager minskat samtidigt som de säger att man är osäker på vart 900 000 fat per dag tog vägen under uken som gick, el 6,3 miljoner fat...😂

Nu börjar nog folk bli lite osäkra på det mesta vilket kan betyda sell off, så vi kanske får lite contango action snart!

Absolutt...

Saudi Crude Flotilla står overfor forsinkelser foran USAs ankomst

IMO Jeg tviler på at disse tankskipene når ferdig losset Saudi ønsker et charter. Formoder Saudi vil la skipene ligge etter
lossing, for å ta evt. WTI olje i retur, dersom de finner det da ?

De kan ikke ta med produkter, så en tur til Midt-Østen eller lignende med raffinerte produkter fra USG.
Jeg tror heller ikke Saudi ønsker å fikse dem til lagring ...

Så klart Saudi har festet dem til å handle med saudisk olje, og betale mye for deres nåværende charter, for handel.
 
Jeg er litt overrasket over at Saudi ikke charterte LR2 (1), siden de kunne ha handlet med raffinerte produkter et
sted i stedet for ballasting ...

Vi vet at det tar 14 dager å rydde opp '' tanker / rør / -pumper '', for å bytte en LR til å bære ren. Som vi ser, vil
LR sannsynligvis få en køyeplass langs en brygge, og ikke trenger å bli losset ved se, USG.

Lagtiden for havnene er nå ganske lang, og overbelastning gir færre skip WW alt fortalt for VLCC-er.

Godt sagt,

Cramer, the Self admitted FELON, a lakey of hedge funds buddies have targeted
the total of tanker owners doing their thing . Just look at NAT, after the Stupid
Norwegian CEO went on his show 

Kinas Shandong-provins for å utvide rålagringskapasitet innen utgangen av 2020: kilder

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051320-chinas-shandong-province-to-expand-crude-storage-capacity-by-end-2020-sources?mkt_tok=eyjpijoitxpfd09xwmtzekjsturjmiisinqioijvcmw0thbjc0e1amhqze90zexttzy3n1wvnxh6d2pzamncl01yvm1azmldr2pvylvedfprcky1dxfivvj3chl4awhqzstxryt6s2xxvmdpohv1cxvjnxbtdfbvohk0qmtud1oyvwzhvfo5m3neuldjdhdxqjvhoxvqsxrrwejkk3y3in0%3d

Ja, når disse små kineserne først setter i gang å bygge så går det fort. En norsk rundkjøring tar 6 mnd å bli ferdig hvis alle tre er på jobb og ingen er syke eller har pappa perm. I kina smeller de opp et sykehus på 10 dager.

Crude Oil
26.52
+1.23(+4.86%)

Fant denne, ser vi Oljen in minus igjen ?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-Oil-Prices-Go-Negative-Again-This-Month.html

Trump hotar med sanktioner mot sjöfart om de gör affärer med Iran,Syrien och Nord Korea....kanske blir lite fart på raterna av detta. Inte contaaango men vem bryr sig om raterna blir lite högre haha

ADVARSEL FRA KOMMISJONEN SOM OVERSER FUTURES PÅ EXCHANGE, I en nesten aldri gitt advarsel noensinne -

U.S. commodities watchdog issues blunt warning over oil volatility

The Commission reminded futures exchanges they are legally responsible for preventing “manipulation, price distortion, and disruptions of the delivery or cash-settlement process”.,

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-cftc-letter-kemp/column-us-commodities-watchdog-issues-blunt-warning-over-oil-volatility-kemp-idUSL8N2CW5C0

Både WTI og Brent er grønne nå

RT - WTI
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart

Brent
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Hei Tjenare

Sanksjoner mot de nevnte land har vel allerede vært i virkning i minst 9 måneder.

Legg til sanksjoner mot Venezuela, et al.

Dette har sikkert din interesse, fra i dag

Polembros Shipping suffers brush with US law enforcement

The US Department of Justice has provided the company a letter affirming it was not part of the conspiracy to help Iran grow its tanker fleet

Polembros Shipping might be out $10m, but it was cleared of wrongdoing by the US government in a ship sale that went awry.

In the latest incursion by US law enforcement into the global shipping industry, the Greek shipowner was investigated last year when it was selling the 150,812-dwt Gulf Sky (ex-Nautic, built 1998).

According to managing director George Vakirtzis, the probe created a few headaches for Polembros.

"They went to our bank, they went to our P&I [protection and indemnity] club to get information, etc, etc."

“We’re mainly a tanker company. Our clients are oil majors," Vakirtzis told TradeWinds this week. "We wouldn't compromise the relationships we have by breaking sanctions or doing something illegal.

Buyers sanctioned
Polembros faced no legal consequences for the transaction. The alleged buyers, Amir Dianat and Kamran Lajmiri, both Iranian nationals, were charged on 1 May with fraudulently using the US financial system. Dianat was sanctioned, along with his company Taif Mining Services.

The US alleges Dianat and Lajmiri set up a web of shell companies registered across the globe to buy the Gulf Sky for the benefit of Iran's oil industry, which the US has maintained is used to fund its military, a terrorist organisation.

However, Vakirtzis said all the due diligence done by Polembros showed his counterparty was controlled by a "wealthy Omani family", and that the company had signed documents stipulating it had nothing to do with Iran.

He said he had never heard of either Dianat or Lajmiri until the charges were filed.

Further, Polembros is out of pocket by $10m that it was supposed to be paid to complete the sale of the ship.

London arbitration
The company has had the ship arrested in the United Arab Emirates after suing in Khor Fakkan and has started arbitration in London to try to recover the funds. The case is expected to be heard by the UAE's Supreme Court at the end of the month.

At the same time, the US government is looking to seize the $10m, held in a US bank Vakirtzis identified as Wells Fargo, along with the $2.3m deposit that was paid to Polembros.

He said the loss of money has not damaged Polembros, but would threaten the ability of a smaller company to stay in business.

"You can imagine, if we were a company with one or two vessels, we'd be under," he said. "If you have $10m to come to you and it hasn't come for six months [it could be a problem]."

Vakirtzis added that Polembros is working with the US authorities, and the Department of Justice has provided a letter exonerating it of wrongdoing.

"The banks liked it, the P&I club liked it," Vakirtzis said of the letter.

"We're on good terms with the [Department of Justice], I have to admit.

"It was, and still is, an uncomfortable experience."

U.S. forum - Really ? - IEA Sees Oil Market Improving

https://www.rigzone.com/news/iea_sees_oil_market_improving-14-may-2020-162088-article/?utm_campaign=DAILY_2020_05_14&utm_source=GLOBAL_ENG&utm_medium=EM_NW_F1

Uansetty, Rah rah, og kutt produskjon, hvem tror at dette får NOEN SOM HELST innvirknning de nærmeste 6 til 12 måneder.

Månedlig tilbud og etterspørsel, md etter md, viser klart et veldig stort behov for lagring, enkelt og greit.

Olje på flytende lagring svever rekord høyde og toppen fortsatt et stykke unna.

London - Olje på flytende lagring er nå på sitt høyeste nivå i oljemarkedets historie,
og til tross for beskjedne tegn på en bedring i etterspørselen, sier bransjekilder og
analytikere at toppen for disse volumene fortsatt er et stykke unna.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051420-oil-on-floating-storage-soars-to-record-highs-but-peak-still-some-way-off

Hei og hå. Kjøpte på $ 7.30 i Uniten i kveld; så har jeg aksjer på begge sider av atlanteren.

Crude Oil
27.82
+2.53(+10.00%)

Vi får se om noen brenner inne med de kontraktene...

Har sagt det i flere uker nå, det kommer til å smelle en gang til...

flere og flere artikler... Nå er det russland som kommer med unnskyldninger om at de ikke klarer å stenge av. (...) de kan kutte totalt et sted mellom 200k-300k fat umiddelbart, og stenge av brønnene en liten periode slik de gjør i vedlikehold. Noe helt annet er total nedstegning i 2 år. Kompleksiteten og faren for ødeleggelse er for stor og russiske produsenter som har fått påslag om stenging vegrer seg å stenge totalt og strekker strikken så langt som mulig (mao. de gir f og fortsetter som før..).

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Russia-Will-Struggle-To-Meet-Its-Production-Cut-Quota.html

http://shortvolumes.com/?t=FRO


edit: sammenlign med NAT f.eks...

Mye historie i dette Keneid

Napoleon, så Hitler, Russiske tundra er ikke noe å spøke med .... Og fra den Polske grense mot '' Mokva ''
er de lange viddene Varme i forhold til Sibir... like kaldt og kjævelig som Alaska etc.

Vedlikehold har aldri vært noe Russland har hatt særlig god erfaring med. Det var jo derfor den Herlige
Dealen som Seadrill hadde inngått, med ørten rigger, og SDRL skulle investere og vedlikeholde NYE
drillere, pumper etc. Men det gikk i vasken pga. US sanctions.

Blir spille vindt i Russisk olje sektor fremover, dersom de virkelig stenger for lengre tid da.

Hvis det en hører er riktig, at det ligger mange tankere og venter på å få losse både her og der, og så rapporteres det at lagrene på land er noe ned uten å ta hensyn til dette. Da synes jeg det er pussig at den situasjonen fører til at oljeprisen går opp og at man tror at behovet for tankere er ned.

Bra innlegg i Uniten, vedr. kutt i Russland. Permafrost og vanskelig å la felt ligge brakk over lengre
tid.... et par 3 måneder ok, men snakker man mer enn det er man i trøbbel. Denne personen har
egenopplevelse ved å ha arbeidet der selv......

Why Russia Will Struggle To Meet Its Production Cut Quota

"Not everyone agrees on the challenges caused by the weather, however. The New York Times’ Andrew E. Kramer, for example, earlier this month wrote Russia was bluffing when it said shutting in wells in Siberia could take longer and be trickier than shutting in production in warmer climates. Kramer citedenergy experts as saying there was no marked difference between shutting in a well in Texas and one in Western Siberia."

Not true. From actual experience working in Siberia - there are some fields that have deep permafrost layers. Wells will freeze if left in non-producing conditions.

However, depending upon the pump type used, it may be possible to slow the production rate down. Western Siberia primarily uses electric submersible pumps (ESPs) on the big wells and rod pumps on the lower producers. Texas has ESPs, rod pumps and gas lift depending upon the company and production rate.

Rod pumps and gas lift can be adjustable for a large range of rates. ESPs need to run in a "window" and can only be slowed down or sped up so much before they lose efficiency or damage the pumps.

More production coming from ESPs means that the variability is lower.

Also, most of the pipelines in Siberia are on or close to the surface and will freeze solid if there is no fluid moving through them in the cold months.

It might be more of a challenge for Russia to meet it's commitment, but it can still be done.

Enig PSI- Investor

Det motsatte er hva ren logikk tilsier.

Nå ligger det opp i mot 30 skip på reden i California, like mange mener jeg i Singpore og Saudi sendte en Armada
22 skip til USG. California og USG har begge grunne havner og begge steder må man bruke Jetty's eller lekter på
reden ...

Desutten som jeg ser det, er risikoen på tank skip i dag liten. Selv om vi ikke ser Straosferiske rater, går ikke redere
men inntjening på selv WS rundturer 50k som i dag,, eller TC $ 60k >t; konk; FRO har OPEX $ 19.000; blir masse
fortjenese selv på det....

Som sagt tidligere følger jeg et forum i Uniten som er konsentrer om
shale produksjon i US. - EIA ikke mye å stole på ... kommentar herunder

One sentence for yesterday EIA report - very bad, but.....

Lets not forget it was only a few months ago that every tanker tracker outfit was screaming that the EIA would have an export number of 5.2 million new record...the tankers were easily spotted leaving...and then the data came in at high 2s or low 3s I cant remember...we were all screaming where did 10 vlcc tankers get missed...impossible that number even if give or take cut off dates...EIA said have to use 4 week average..blah blah blah...the following weeks the exports never showed up...well maybe theyre just 4 months behind in catching up.

...well the data can work both ways...and now we are witnessing it..just as well as eia data was garbage then now it can be garbage to the benefit of oil longs....what happens with the slowdown of US production and pipeline shipping and days in transit...the reverse taylor effect...that is goin happen at breakneck speed.....

....bottom line is EIA data is garbage..we all know it...but its what traders trade off of...so its what we got to play ball with...whether we like it or not.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-refining/global-refining-activity-slump-extends-into-may-as-glut-builds-iea-idUSKBN22Q2A5?il=0

Heading

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global oil refining production could start rebounding in June, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, but refiners’ margins may be squeezed due to rising crude prices as producers slashed output much faster than expected.

* - *

Graphic: Global refinery crude throughput - here https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/rlgpdwebyvo/IEA%20Ref%20Throughput.png

FRO

Short squeeze ?

Etter info om 9 dager mindre til tall .... vi vil se, men 4,5 Mill aksjer omsatt i US på 11 minutter ?

Head fake eller ikke ?

Det er Fredag i dag, god helg, ser bra ut foreløpig

China’s Splurge on Dirt-Cheap Crude Revealed in Tanker Movements

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-splurge-on-dirt-cheap-crude-revealed-in-tanker-movements-1.1436868

Rosneft's crude awkening Q1 report

"Rosneft PJSC reported its first quarterly net loss since 2012 as oil prices collapsed and demand slumped due to the coronavirus.

The net loss was 156 billion rubles ($2 billion) in the first quarter, worse than every analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

The result may undermine potential 2020 dividends, which are typically paid out in proportion to net income. Payouts for last year may reach a record 354.1 billion rubles, or 33.41 rubles a share, according to the statement.
Key Insights

Russia’s biggest oil producer reported a foreign-exchange loss of 177 billion rubles after the nation’s currency depreciated almost 22% against the U.S. dollar and almost 20% against the euro over the first quarter.

At the same time, ruble’s average exchange rate remained almost flat compared with a year earlier, not allowing Rosneft any cost savings. In previous oil price slumps, Russian producers, which earn part of their revenues in dollars and spend almost exclusively in rubles, were shielded by a flexible exchange rate.
First-quarter oil and gas production fell 2.5% from a year earlier to 5.75 million barrels of oil equivalent a day.

The company, one of the most fervent opponents of Russia’s cooperation with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will have to implement about 40% of the country’s output cuts in the new OPEC+ agreement, which will last until April 2022.
Market Reaction

Rosneft shares in Moscow rose as much as 1.9%, and were 1.5% higher at 352.40 rubles as of 10:24 a.m. local time.
Know More

First-quarter revenue fell 15% from a year ago to 1.765 trillion rubles. That was above the average analyst estimate of 1.741 trillion rubles.

Operating expenditure fell 3.3% from a year ago to $2.9 a barrel of oil equivalent.

Free cash flow was steady at $3.5 billion.

Capex fell 14% to 185 billion rubles.

Net debt-to-Ebitda ratio was 1.5 in dollar terms as of March 31.

The company will reduce its investment program by about 20% from a year earlier to about 750 billion rubles given “the dramatic state of the global oil market in general and in connection with the decision on output reductions,” Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said earlier this week."

Fra venn i Uniten

There is no daily short interest reported by a required reply by the brokerage and funds,
other than the 2x/month report that they are required by the SEC to file.

Other reports are estimates.

FRO actual short interest on the NYSE only:

April 30, 2020 4,780,000 shares 4.9% of the float (float percentage excludes shares held by Fredriksen).
April 15, 2020 4,320,000 shs
Mar 31, 2020 3,860,000 shs
Mat 13, 2020 2,770,000 shs
Feb 28, 2020 3,870,000 shs
Feb 14, 2020 3,550,000 shs
Jan 31, 2020 3,900,000 shs
Jan 15, 2020 4,100,000 shs

Finanstilsynet

OSE

https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG3682E1921

Goldman sacks sier det verste er over i olje, da skal det nok ned snart, De prøver å rekruttere bagholders

I 2014 april spådde de olja i 200 us, da olja var litt over 100, fra sommeren vet vi hvasom skjedde raste nedover og endte i 27 us jan 2015

Alle banker og analytikere har sine agendar. Selv bruker jeg Sundt Bondevett og holder meg oppdatert ....

Kjøpe meg inn på $ 7.3 i Uniten, høyere på OSE, men kommer til å selge der jeg ser en god gevinst
på FRO; men aldri ute.....

Bare å kose seg, går ikke under 70 ....