Hvor trygge vil pengene dine være på en bankkonto om worst case inntreffer? Total krakk i børsmarkedet, arbeidsmarkedet krakker, boligpriser krakker, banker velter over ende, osv
Hva vil pengeverdien forbli, eller være om du putter dem i madrassen......

Vi har jo mange ganger sett isolert, i land der økonomi krakker, arbeidsledigheten er skyhøy hvordan inflasjonen har påvirket pengeverdiene. Kilometer lange køer utenfor banker for om mulig å få tatt ut penger til dagens nødvendige innkjøp. Trillebårer med sedler påtrykket billioner for å kjøpe et brød. Skyhøy kriminalitet, død & fordervelse...

Sitter helt klart ikke på noen fasit, men these are crazy, crazy days. Tro kan flytte fjell, sies det, men har liten tro på at det er noe poeng i holde børsene oppe helt uavhengig av og løsrevet fra utviklingen innen økonomi for å bekjempe en pandemi, men så vet vi jo hvilken nasjon som leder an når det gjelder 'alt' som dreier seg om børs og der finnes det en som sterkt ønsker å bli gjenvalgt, har lagt enorm prestisje i og tatt æren for positiv børs og garantert har litt av et nettverk innen finans. Støttespillere som svært gjerne vil se ham gjenvalgt. Tusenkronersspørsmålet i en slik, lett humoristisk, liten småkonspiratorisk-helge-teori 😉 blir da om man for lengst og på skjebnesvangert vis har undervurdert den negative effekten av koronaviruspandemien på økonomi og samfunn og trodd man relativt greit skulle komme seg gjennom og tilbake til normalen. Hvis svaret er ja, er det kanskje uunngåelig at man på et eller annet tidspunkt går tom for krutt og da kommer kjempesmellen. For å dra en parallell når det gjelder amerikansk overmot: Noen husker kanskje hvordan Bush jr. på spektakulært vis inntok Bagdad og erklærte seier etter kun få dager? Jobben var gjort, men det var den jo ikke. Fortsatt god helg. 😉

Uforståelig at børsene ikke har falt mer: https://www.dn.no/magasinet/okonomi/kenneth-rogoff/imf/superokonom-kenneth-rogoff-om-koronakrisen-overgar-alt-vi-har-sett-i-over-100-ar/2-1-793598?utm_source=front&utm_campaign=lsrjgr

Det er mye preik om ragnarok blandt mang en opphøyd superguru...


Noen markedsindikatorer taler de midt i mot.

This respected market-timing model just flashed a bullish four-year outlook for stocks

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-respected-market-timing-model-just-flashed-a-bullish-four-year-outlook-for-stocks-2020-04-24

https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/1n9b9X/venter-ny-gjeldsrekord-i-usa-i-2023

https://e24.no/olje-og-energi/i/EWM00j/ny-priskollaps-paa-vei-i-oljemarkedet

https://www.dn.no/bors/oslo-bors/bank/dnb/alles-oyne-pa-dnb-og-bankene-til-uken/2-1-798012

Slik jeg ser det, har vi i hovedsak to skoler her. Trump er selvsagt ubestridt rektor i den ene hvis lære er at koronaviruspandemien snart er beseiret og at økonomien dermed ganske raskt vil være back on track. Litt mer oppsiktsvekkende er det at også Fed synes å tro på relativ quick fix og spørsmålet om Fed kan ha gamblet på dette melder seg dermed.... Fed Bullard rykket ut med dette samtidig som man kjørte renta i null og erklærte nærmest ubegrenset støtte til markedet. Børsene kjøpte dette tvert, dundret til værs og har siden bare fortsatt nordover. Sentralbanksjefen sjøl Powell har senere snakket i samme baner som Bullard.

Here’s how to think about the economy right now, says Fed’s Bullard: A car slowing in a construction zone

Published: March 25, 2020 at 12:22 p.m. ET
By Greg Robb

There’s nothing wrong with that car’s engine and once clear of the coronavirus pullback, the economy will accelerate again - Bullard

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warns that because of the coronavirus pandemic, second-quarter economic data will likely be worse than any we’ve ever seen, but he urged Americans to see this as a temporary roadblock.

In a teleconference with reporters Wednesday, Bullard used the analogy of a car speeding down the highway only to come over a hill to discover a construction zone ahead.

The car has to slow down and go half-speed to navigate the lane shifts, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the engine, he said.

Bullard said he thought the U.S. economy might recover strongly by autumn.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warns that because of the coronavirus pandemic, second-quarter economic data will likely be worse than any we’ve ever seen, but he urged Americans to see this as a temporary roadblock.

In a teleconference with reporters Wednesday, Bullard used the analogy of a car speeding down the highway only to come over a hill to discover a construction zone ahead.

The car has to slow down and go half-speed to navigate the lane shifts, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the engine, he said.

Bullard said he thought the U.S. economy might recover strongly by autumn.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-think-about-the-economy-right-now-says-feds-bullard-a-car-slowing-in-a-construction-zone-2020-03-25

Så har vi den andre skolen, i denne trådstarten representert ved Mark Cuban som tror den økonomiske gjenreisningen vil ta mye lenger tid. En annen representant for denne skolen er Bill Gates. Gates sier det eneste som kan bringe økonomien tilbake til normalen, er vaksine eller en medisin som kurerer 95%.

Bill Gates: Schools will reopen in the fall, but economy won’t magically return to the way it was

PUBLISHED THU, APR 9 20206:09 AM EDTUPDATED THU, APR 9 202012:18 PM EDT

Gates is hopeful that education can return before a coronavirus vaccine is widely available, which he expects could take 18 months.

He said the earliest the U.S. could reopen is the end of May.

But he cautioned that the pandemic has permanently changed how people act, and it will take a vaccine or effective cure to make people confident enough to go out again.
-----------------------

He also suggested the economy would not magically revert to the way it was before the pandemic, even once governments decide it’s safe to go back to work.

“The behavior of people in terms of wanting to travel or go to events or even go to a restaurant, it’s been utterly changed by the concerns about this disease,” he said. “No one should think the government can wave a wand and all of a sudden the economy is anything like it was before this happened. That awaits either a miracle therapeutic that has an over 95% cure rate, or broad usage of the vaccine.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/bill-gates-schools-will-reopen-in-the-fall-but-economy-wont-revert.html

Så der har vi det. Sokner selv til den sistnevnte skolen så det er helt uaktuelt for meg å gå inn igjen i markedet før det eventuelt har tatt seg en real tur sørover. En nedtur som reflekterer fremtidsutsiktene for økonomien som dessverre slett ikke er særlig lyse nå på ganske lang sikt, etter min og en god del andres mening.

Trump trakk seg fra sine daglige 'koronahappeninger' da ratingene plumpet. Nå legger de om strategien etter å anbefalt malariamedisin og injisering av desinfeksjonsmidler for å helbrede koronavirusinfeksjon til å hausse økonomien som så og si ligger helt brakk i et hav av arbeidsledighet...

U.S. economy to reopen in May and June and then ‘really bounce back,’ Mnuchin says, but others a thinking fall

Published: April 26, 2020 at 5:00 p.m. ET

The U.S. economy will start to recover in the third quarter after a period of reopening in May and June, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sunday.

“As we begin to reopen the economy in May and June, you’re going to see the economy really bounce back in July, August and September,” Mnuchin said in an interview on Fox News Sunday.

The trillions of dollars in government spending “will have a significant impact” to spur growth, he said. “As businesses begin to open, you’re going to see the demand side of the economy rebound.”

Mnuchin noted his forecast is based on assumptions about how the pandemic proceeds. Reopening will have to be balanced with increased testing, he said.

Many experts don’t think there will be a quick recovery, often referred to as a V-shaped rebound.

Billionaire Barry Diller, the chairman of Expedia Group, EXPE, +5.05% scoffed at suggestions the economy would recover this summer.

“Anyone who thinks this economy is going to bounce...it can’t. The damage that is being done is catastrophic,” Diller said on CBC News’ “Face the Nation.”

He said early September would be a better guess of when employees start to return to work.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-to-reopen-in-may-and-june-and-then-really-bounce-back-mnuchin-says-2020-04-26?mod=article_inline

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expert-who-called-the-2008-crisis-says-the-signal-to-sell-stocks-is-coming-soon-2020-04-27?mod=home-page

Strategiomleggingen fra å prate nonsens om koronaviruspandemien til å hausse en snarlig økonomisk rebound kommer ikke til å funke for USAs føderale admin.? Man bagatelliserte lenge koronaviruspandemien med fatale konsekvenser. Nå undervurderer man på lignende vis de enorme problemene i økonomi og sysselsetting? Helt utrolig hvis man greier å holde liv i den langvarige, kontinuerlige børsoppgangen vi nå har sett, i ukevis. Feelingen er at det nå knekker ned når som helst. Har vel hatt den lenge, det skal innrømmes, men nå er den sterk så får legge hodet blokka med et kortsiktig tips: USA børsene stenger i dag i rødt (futures roughly +1% nå).

https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-04-27-20/index.html

Big Oil Dividends Could Be Under Pressure With Brent Down 70% In 2020

Gaurav Sharma
Gaurav SharmaSenior Contributor Markets

At the start of the year, even before oil and gas companies were clobbered by the global coronavirus or Covid-19 downturn and the short-lived OPEC+ price war, energy market sentiment wasn't exactly robust. However, what has unfolded in the last eight weeks has ensured confidence in the sector is rock bottom.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2020/04/27/big-oil-dividends-could-be-under-pressure-with-brent-down-70-in-2020/#497d8f493b9c

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-boeing-ceo-says-air-travel-rebound-could-take-2-or-3-years-board-approved.html

Tippa rød close i USA for noen timer sida, men må nok bare innse allerede at det nok er sjanseløst. Dette er jo første børsdag hvor Team Trump har skiftet strategi fra fokus på håndtering av koronapandemien til at økonomien snart er back on track. I overkant dumdristig å tro på at man vil 'tillate' rød børs på en sånn dag. Så får vel kanskje bare spise litt humble pie allerede nå 😉

Fallhøyden begynner å bli enorm for amerikanske aksjesparere.Hinsides all logikk at børsen har gått så høyt.Tror ikke Trump klarer ikke holde dette trykket oppe særlig lengre......Fall kan skje på 2 minutter.Oppgang tar ofte flere dager.For tidlig å spise pie just yet.

19:19:04
William Bugge
Jeffrey Gundlach tror aksjemarkedet skal ned mot bunnivå

Direktør i investeringsselskapet DoubleLine Jeffrey Gundlach skal ifølge CNBC ha kommentert at han venter et større fall på børsene.

Gundlach blir av mange omtalt som «obligasjonskongen», ettersom han er en av verdens største investorer i gjeldspapirer. Ved slutten av 2019 skal DoubleLine forvaltet mer enn 148 milliarder dollar.

Gundlach skal ha vært klar på at han er med i gruppen som mener at vi ikke ser en slutt på krisen enda.

– Folk forstår ikke størrelsen på den sosiale uroen som vil oppstå når mer enn 26 millioner folk mister jobbene sine. Vi har mistet hver eneste jobb vi har skapt siden bunnen av 2009, skal han ha sagt til CNBC.

Gundlach sa også i intervjuet at han har shortet samleindeksen S&P 500 - med andre ord vedder han på at indeksen vil falle lavere. Gundlach sa i intervjuet at han inngikk shortposisjonen da S&P 500-indeksen var på 2863 poeng. Kl. 19.15 var indeksen på 2872 poeng.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sinking-us-economy-hasnt-hit-bottom-yet-2020-04-25?mod=mw_latestnews

Bare å gi seg ende over, for børsene i USA ser tydeligvis ingen skumle skjær i sjøen noensteds i overskuelig fremtid og bare fortsetter himmelferden...

Tyson Foods chairman warns ‘food supply chain is breaking’ as coronavirus forces plant closures

PUBLISHED MON, APR 27 20202:28 PM EDT
Amelia Lucas

KEY POINTS

Meat processors, including Tyson, Smithfield and JBS, are closing U.S. facilities after workers test positive for Covid-19

“The food supply chain is breaking,” Tyson Foods chairman John Tyson wrote in a full-page newspaper ad that ran on Sunday.

More than a dozen packing and food processing workers have died after contracting Covid-19, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/tyson-foods-chairman-warns-food-supply-chain-is-breaking-as-coronavirus-forces-plant-closures.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-king-warns-the-stock-market-could-hit-new-lows-amid-social-unease-2020-04-27?mod=home-page

“People don’t understand the magnitude of... the social unease... that’s going to happen,” Gundlach explained. “We’ve lost every single job that we created since the bottom in 2009.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-great-repression-is-here-and-it-will-make-past-downturns-look-tame-economist-says-2020-04-27?mod=home-page

In the “base case” for the U.S. economy, published by his firm, Rosenberg Research, the economy “reopens” in May, in a staggered approach across industries and regions. There are “periodic setbacks in terms of COVID-19 case counts…sufficient to make people less comfortable and confident about spending then they did prior to the crisis. A vaccine is not developed in this forecast, but treatment that alleviates the worst respiratory symptoms” is developed within the next six months, he writes.

What does that mean for the economy and financial markets?

A 30% contraction in real gross domestic product in the second quarter, negative year-over-year consumer price growth for 5 quarters, and an unemployment rate of 14.2% by the end of 2020, averaging 13% throughout 2021.

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.667% sinks lower and lower each quarter, to 31 basis points by the fourth quarter, and averages 18 basis points throughout 2021. Yields fall as bond prices rise.

Investors in high-yield debt run for the doors, leaving those bonds more than 700 basis points more expensive than Treasurys at the end of this year.

Stocks hit bottom in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 SPX, +1.47% at 2,000, then start a “slow recovery.” But it’s meager: the index averages only 2,600 throughout 2021. Put another way, Rosenberg assumes stocks sink 30% in the coming months, then spend most of the next 18 months grinding higher to valuations about 10% lower than today’s levels.

Rosenberg also lays out a “best case,” which depends on a vaccine or treatment emerging in the next six to 12 months. That outlook includes an unemployment rate averaging about 9% for the next two years, a stock-market bottom of 2,500 for the S&P 500 in Q2, and a cyclical low of 29 basis points for the 10-year note in 2021.

The “worst-case” scenario is grim. It involves no vaccine, no treatment, and a second wave coronavirus outbreak next winter that severely saps business and household confidence. In this outlook, the jobless rate hits 20% — and averages 17.5% through 2021.

Outright deflation takes hold. “Think about what years of no pricing power is going to do to those corporate cash flows in the future,” Rosenberg writes. “Even government intervention is capable of suffering from the laws of diminishing demand. Japan is a classic template.”

Even in this worst-case scenario, however, Rosenberg doesn’t assume the U.S. Federal Reserve takes interest rates negative: the 10-year touches a low of 31 basis points in the fourth quarter and averages 19 throughout 2021, essentially the same as in his base case.

But there’s a lot more damage done to the stock market. The S&P 500 bottoms at 1,800 in the second quarter and averages only 2,200 throughout 2021.

Statsautorisert børsrally er veldig ressurskrevende. Enorme støttepakker er allerede delt ut, men behovet for flere støttepakker er fortsatt stort. Delstatene trenger økonomisk støtte fra sentralt hold og politiske tautrekninger om pakker til disse pågår. Forhandlindklimaet mellom republikanere og demokrater virker ikke å være spesielt godt. Hotellene har ikke fått støtte som monner, hevder de og sier som restaurantbransjen at de må ha hjelpepakke.

Hotels asks Congress for more aid as industry’s revenue may drop by nearly 50%

Published: April 27, 2020 at 5:40 p.m. ET
By Victor Reklaitis

Hotel industry group says in letter that maximum loan amount in Paycheck Protection Program is ‘insufficient’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hotels-asks-congress-for-more-aid-as-industrys-revenue-may-drop-by-nearly-50-2020-04-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Fed må enda høyere på banen.

Fed expands municipal debt purchase plan to allow smaller counties and cities to participate

Published: April 27, 2020 at 6:00 p.m. ET
By Greg Robb

Central bank lowers population threshold that critics said severely curtailed the program

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-expands-municipal-debt-purchase-plan-to-allow-more-counties-and-cities-to-participate-2020-04-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

https://www.abcnyheter.no/penger/makrookonomi/2020/04/27/195673813/frykter-corona-depresjon-kan-bli-verre-enn-de-harde-trettiara

– Den nåværende krisen er på mange områder uten sidestykke. Finansmessig og økonomisk vil vi se at effekten av krisen for økonomien kanskje vil være like stor som, eller større enn, den store depresjonen på 1930-tallet, sier Wenzel i en artikkel på Europarådets hjemmesider.

Økonomer spår at andelen arbeidsledige i USA i april kan bli så høy som 20 prosent. Enkelte tror landets BNP kan minske dobbelt så mye som under finanskrisen på 2000-tallet, skriver NTB. Få eksperter ser for seg en nedgang i nærheten av det man så under den store depresjonen, da arbeidsledighetsraten holdt seg over 14 prosent fra 1931 og helt fram til 1940. Men høy arbeidsledighet vil trolig vare godt inn i 2021, og trolig videre.

Er det mulig. Kondolerer til alle som er short. Brent under 20, ned 5,5%. Ned 15% siste to dager.
OSEBX nær 750, opp 0,5%. Opp 1,3% siste to dager.
(Jeg er ikke short, men hadde håpet på mulighet til inngang. Det får man altså ikke).

i dag 10:51
Ingrid Bjørklund
Verste krisen på 161 år

Den amerikanske oljeutstyrsleverandøren National Oilwell Varco tror oljeindustrien går mørke tider i møte i kjølvannet av koronaepidemien. Selskapet omsatte i første kvartal for 1,9 milliarder dollar, og gikk med underskudd på to milliarder dollar, går det frem av en pressemelding. Selskapet kaller krisen den alvorligste nedgangsperioden i oljebransjens 161-årige historie. Leverandøren tror andre kvartal blir enda verre for bransjen.


https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/dOelX1/oljegiganten-bp-tapte-milliarder-i-foerste-kvartal


Det hagler inn med totalt ræva tall, og børsene stiger. Skulle tro olja låg på 70 usd.

Enn så lenge er det store avvik hvordan verden vil bli.

Utdrag fra Omdal i børoppdateringen idag vedr oljemarkedet: "– Vi går fra en overforsyning på trolig mellom 25 og 30 millioner fat pr. dag i første halvdel av april til trolig en underforsyning allerede i juni ved en V-formet innhenting av etterspørselen ved åpning av økonomier i mange land på grunn av at coronaspredningen og de coronarelaterte dødsfallene faller raskt, sier Omdal."

Markedet er enig med Omdal pr idag. Så får vi se.

The US is not even ‘remotely’ ready to re-open for business, says outbreak preparedness expert.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/the-us-is-not-even-remotely-prepared-to-re-open-for-business-expert.html

Neste bølge av Covid nærmer seg ubønnhørlig, og den kan bli verre enn den første jfr. forløpet av spanskesyken.

Dying for cute toes? I hate to say it, Georgia, but on this one, we're as dumb as we look.

Patricia Murphy Opinion contributor
Published 6:00 AM EDT Apr 28, 2020

You’re laughing at Georgia, again, aren’t you? It happens a lot. I know my uncle in Colorado got a kick out of Gov. Brian Kemp's announcement last week that the state would start to reopen businesses previously closed by COVID-19, starting with bowling alleys, gyms, tattoo parlors and salons. Give me a foot massage or give me death? Welcome to Georgia!

“Dying for cute toes” would be a hilarious state motto if the situation here weren’t also so serious. With 1,000 deaths and more than 24,000 confirmed cases as of Monday night , Georgia has not been the hardest hit state in the country. But we haven’t avoided our own tragedies, either. Dougherty County in rural Georgia has been one of the country’s most severe hot spots, with hospitals overwhelmed after two family funerals spawned hundreds more cases and deaths there.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/28/coronavirus-stress-test-georgia-reopens-businesses-column/3033238001/

ATLANTA MAYOR REBUKES GEORGIA GOV. BRIAN KEMP FOR OPENING BUSINESSES: 'WE CAN'T SIT BY…WHILE PEOPLE DIE'

BY KHALEDA RAHMAN ON 4/28/20 AT 6:15 AM EDT
Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has rebuked Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp for reopening businesses such as bowling alleys and nail salons, warning that Georgia could see a sharp rise in coronavirus deaths as a result.

"It's extremely frustrating as a mayor watching where we are as a country," Bottoms told Chris Cuomo during an appearance on CNN's Cuomo Prime Time on Monday.

"As I look at people standing in line for haircuts and to get their nails done, what we are essentially saying in Georgia is, 'Go bowling and we'll have a [hospital] bed waiting on you.' That's not what our approach should be to COVID-19."

https://www.newsweek.com/atlanta-mayor-rebukes-gov-kemp-decision-reopen-1500577

Tydelig at markedet forventer en rask V -formet oppgang men det står i sterk kontrast til forventningene til bland annet SAS som ikke forventer markedet tilbake på gammelt nivå før tidligst i 2022. Turistnæringen er også en næring som forventer at det går mange år før ting henter seg inn igjen. Store kontraster...time will show....

Antall smittede i USA doblet fra en halv million til en million bare i løpet av de 18 siste dagene! Over 56 000 døde. Hertil trolig stor underrapportering både når det gjelder antall døde og ikke minst antall smittede. Skal ikke titte mye innom US media for å skjønne at testing ikke fungerer spesielt bra, for å si det forsiktig... Smart da av føderale myndigheter å legge voldsomt press på delstatene for å åpne samfunnet og økonomien raskest mulig??? På grensen til pålegg om tvungen russisk rulett...?

SWITZERLANDAPRIL 28, 2020 / 12:49 PM / UPDATED 17 MINUTES AGO

U.S. coronavirus cases approach 1 million, one-third of global infections –Reuters tally

Lisa Shumaker


(Reuters) - U.S. cases of the novel coronavirus were approaching 1 million on Tuesday, having doubled in 18 days, and made up one-third of all infections in the world, according to a Reuters tally.

More than 56,000 Americans have died of the highly contagious respiratory illness COVID-19 caused by the virus, an average of about 2,000 a day this month, according to the tally.

The actual number of cases is thought to be higher, with state public health officials cautioning that shortages of trained workers and materials have limited testing capacity.

About 30% of the cases have occurred in New York state, the epicentre of the U.S. outbreak, followed by New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and Pennsylvania.

Globally, coronavirus cases top 3 million since the outbreak began in China late last year. The United States, with the world’s third-largest population, has five times as many cases as the next hardest-hit countries of Italy, Spain and France.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-usa-cases-idUKKCN22A1J6

Litt mer om den mangelfulle testingen i USA som jeg berørte i forrige innlegg, nå som Trump åpner opp . Må bare håpe vi ikke stirrer rett inn i katastrofen der nå... Trumps gode mann doktor Fauci som har vært fraværende på de siste briefingene, sier at et adekvat testregime er alfa og omega og helt nødvendig hvis man skal kunne åpne samfunnet gradvis og forsiktig så når man leser denne artikkelen, fremstår dessverre ikke situasjonen som veldig lovende...

Experts warn Trump plan for states to test just 2% of residents is completely inadequate — and slam his attempt to ‘shirk’ responsibility

Written by Jake Johnson / Common Dreams April 28, 2020

President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled what the White House described as a “blueprint” for nationwide Covid-19 testing that public health experts say falls far short of the robust federal strategy needed to track and contain the deadly virus before states can safely begin reopening their economies.

A senior Trump administration official told the Wall Street Journal that the White House testing plan would provide all 50 states in the U.S. with enough equipment to test at least 2% of their residents. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said that number is nowhere close to adequate.

“It’s about 6 to 7 million [tests],” said Jha, “and if that’s one-time, that doesn’t do anything.”

The blueprint (pdf) is organized into an eight-part strategy that largely leaves states responsible for carrying out a massive expansion of testing, even as governors say they lack the equipment and capacity to ramp up screenings to the level that experts say is necessary.

https://www.alternet.org/2020/04/experts-warn-trump-plan-for-states-to-test-just-2-of-residents-is-completely-inadequate-and-slam-his-attempt-to-shirk-responsibility/

dag 12:32
NTB
Virussmitten på fremmarsj i Tyskland

Spredning av koronasmitten tiltar i Tyskland, mens myndighetene oppfordrer befolkningen om å følge koronarestriksjonene.

– Vi ønsker ikke at antallet tilfeller med koronasmitte skal begynne å øke igjen, sier Lothar Wieler, leder for Tysklands offentlige smittevernsinstitutt Robert Koch Institute, tirsdag.

Landet har så langt lyktes i å holde smitten nede. Men en ny rapport fra instituttet viste mandag at reproduksjonstallet nærmer seg 1, terskelen hvor smitten vil vokse eksponentielt.

– Vi må beskytte den suksessen vi har hatt, sier Wieler.

Tyskland har hatt på plass strenge smittebegrensningstiltak, som inkluderer bruk av munnbind på offentlige steder.

Smitteøkningen følger etter at butikker forrige uke gradvis begynte å gjenåpne. Landets skoler skal etter planen starte å åpne fra og med 4. mai.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-signals-will-soon-tell-us-if-investors-are-fighting-a-losing-game-with-stocks-says-this-strategist-2020-04-28?mod=home-page

As far as stocks go, I worry you’re fighting a losing game. The greed of the market continuing up is giving way to fear the market may retest lows and make a lower low,” Bianco says in our call of the day. “What if it [the S&P 500] goes to 2000, goes down another 25% and I lose another quarter of my money?”

Bianco, who turned bearish this year and is urging investors to put money in cash and gold, thinks markets could get started in the next couple of weeks on a retest that sends the S&P 500 SPX, +1.47% back to 2,200.

The signals that tell him that retest is coming are tied to the economy. He’ll be monitoring restaurant online reservations system OpenTable to see how well restarts are taking, and Apple Mobility for indications that people are using transit again and getting back on the road.

He is also watching to see how many Americans, of the 26 million that have filed for unemployment insurance, get back to work. He’s watching for continuing claims numbers coming out in the next few weeks to see how many of those millions stay on jobless benefits. To be sure, if 20 million are still not working by mid-summer and fall, that will be a “drag on everything.”

USA-KINA- relasjonen ser ut til å få seg en skikkelig knekk:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-relations-are-bad-and-getting-worse-with-major-ramifications-for-trade-and-investment-and-the-uss-presidential-election-2020-04-27?mod=mw_latestnews

Det ender med knall og fall. Be aware:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-coming-greater-depression-of-the-2020s-2020-04-28?mod=home-page

Dette oppleves kanskje som litt paradoksalt for mange amerikanere som nå må gå tilbake til jobben, men som kanskje opplever dette som utrygt...

House cancels plan to return to work on Monday

Published: April 28, 2020 at 11:26 a.m. ET
By Greg Robb

House Democrats have called off a plan to return to Washington next week. Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told reporters on his weekly conference call that there were still concerns about the high coronavirus infection rates in the Washington area and also another coronavirus relief bill, the main reason Democrats hoped to return, was not going to be ready. "We made a judgement that we will not come back next week and that we hope to come back very soon," Hoyer said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-cancels-plan-to-return-to-work-on-monday-2020-04-28?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Nå hardner det til! Postet om kollaps hos Tyson Food m.fl. matprodusenter og gryende breakdown i matforsyningen på denne tråden i går. Nå vil eierne og Trump presse arbeidstakere i karantene tilbake på jobb. Trump som iflg. mange guvernører leverer nada til delstatene, lover selvfølgelig å stille opp med tipp topp smittevernutstyr. Lokale styresmakter går imot snarlig gjenåpning av frykt for smittespredning. Må jo bare føle med arbeiderne som ikke har følt seg beskyttet på jobben, har opplevd smitteutbruddene og som presidenten nå altså ønsker å tvinge tilbake på jobb og gjøre rettsløse ved å innføre hastelovedtak på dagen... Bruk ikke en kalori på å lure på om børsrally uten bein vil bli prøvd opprettholdt med alle midler, uansett hva som skjer. Det vil det.

Trump plans to order meat processing plants to stay open during coronavirus

David Jackson USA TODAY
Published 2:33 PM EDT Apr 28, 2020

WASHINGTON – Faced with worries of a meat shortage caused by the coronavirus, President Donald Trump plans to order meat-processing plants to remain open and will try to protect them from legal liability, , officials said Tuesday.

Trump plans to declare meat plants as critical infrastructure, and cite the Defense Production Act to justify an order to keep them open, said two officials familiar with the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because the order is not yet completed.

Trump could sign the order as early as Tuesday, officials said, and it will likely cover other types of food processing facilities.

Earlier, Trump said he did not fear any kind of food shortage.

"There's plenty of supply," Trump told reporters after meeting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. "It's distribution."

More: Tyson chairman warns of 'meat shortages' as industry faces scrutiny for worker safety during coronavirus

Trump also said he would issue an executive order to shield meat plants from legal liability if they are sued by employees who contract coronavirus while on the job. While Trump only mentioned Tyson Foods specifically, he suggested his order would protect other businesses from liability as well.

While the order would be designed to protect businesses in court if they are sued, that would likely be challenged in court. Judges would ultimately decide whether coronavirus lawsuits against businesses can go forward.

Coronavirus has struck some meat-producers, shutting down plants and threatening the food supply chain.

In a full-page newspaper ad over the weekend, Tyson Foods board Chairman John Tyson said "the food supply chain is breaking," and "there will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities that are currently closed."

Some plant employees have told reporters that Tyson did not adequately protect them from the virus, setting up the prospect of lawsuits.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/28/coronavirus-trump-plans-order-meat-processing-plants-stay-open/3038300001/

Earnings Season Will Be A Bloodbath For Oil Producers

By Josh Owens - Apr 28, 2020, 2:00 PM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Earnings-Season-Will-Be-A-Bloodbath-For-Oil-Producers.html

Hold et øye til motstanden i SP på 2875. Bryter den ned er retningen klar! Da er 2000 neste.

Husk på at det alltid er risiko å være eksponert mot aksjemarkedet. Hvis det ikke hadde vært korona hadde det vært andre farer som lurte. Det er alltid noe....

Sånn sett er ikke aksjemarkedet for alle. Det kan være mer avslappende å ha pengene i banken.

Kanskje handelskrigen blusser opp igjen for full styrke snart.... og så er det presidentvalg om noen måneder...