NAT going nuts!


Kort oppdatering på NAT fra Hannisdahl i går:

"Quick Comment: NAT going nuts!

Since we downgraded Nordic American Tankers to SELL on 13 April and reduced our Target Price from $4.1/sh to $2.6, the share price has rallied 78%. Obviously not good timing with the benefit of hindsight, but our target prices are reflecting our fair value assessment with a one year horizon, not trying to capture short term fluctuations in the share prices.

So, what kind of expectations are now implicitly priced into NAT? We calculate an implicit timecharter equivalent (TCE) of $77,320/d over the next year for NAT’s fleet (disregarding some timecharter rates at lower levels). This is similar to current spot rates. So, is it fair? Our base case is for Suezmax spot rates to average $31k/d over the same period, with a high case of $56k/d as outlined in our recently published Shipping Quarterly. We also highlighted the extraordinary uncertainties in today’s market and the unusual wide range of potential outcomes vs our base case.

So, if we assume investors are right in their pricing of NAT and that Suezmax spot rates will average $77k/d over the next year, what does that entail for other Oil Tanker companies? Using the implied spot rates from NAT, estimating spot rates for other vessel classes in similar market and applying same calculations to our Oil Tanker coverage reveals an average 105% upside vs current pricing. Please see overview below:

In sum, we think NAT is priced too high as the current strong cash flow generation is offset by an expected 20% fall in asset prices on a one-year horizon. But, regardless of whether investors agree or disagree with our base case, the current pricing of NAT is completely disconnected from peers and nevertheless be interesting as a neutral Oil Tanker peer trade. NAT is +10% in pre-trade at the time of writing"

Det er noen interessante tabeller i form av bilder som ikke er mulig å kopiere inn, men dere som har registrert dere gratis hos Cleaves kan lese det her:
https://www.cleaves.no/post/quick-comment-nat-going-nuts

Interessant for norske aksjer er at oppsiden for disse aksjene hvis de prises etter samme rateforventninger som NAT er:
ADS: +157%
FRO: +55%
Hafnia: +119%
Hunt: +120%
OET: +178%

Etter at Hannisdahl laget denne beregningen har NAT steget fra 7,2 til 7,8 i førhandel nå, mens de fleste norske aksjene har falt, så differansen er enda større.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 22:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
bravi
03.06.2022 kl 22:48 520

I dag gikk kursen opp 6.86%. Stor sannsynlighet for at den fortsetter å stige resten av året, sammens med saftige utbytter blir dette caset veldig bra.
bravi
18.07.2022 kl 14:53 248

Biden har fått Saudi med på å øke produksjon til max. Da blir det mere behov for tonnasje til å frakte den oljen. Merk at meldingen fra Nat om 6 nye kontrakter kom 12 Juli, altså før Biden diskuterte produksjønsøkning med Saudi.

Riktig det, men, ikke rare prod økningen
Ser du på oljen forøvrig, ingen quick fix her

Saudi Arabia currently has a 12 million bpd nameplate oil production capacity, which it plans to expand by 1 million bpd by 2027 through a series of offshore incremental projects.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/no-capacity-saudi-arabia-cannot-expand-oil-production-beyond-13-million-bpd/2-1-1262005
Redigert 18.07.2022 kl 14:58 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mr. U
19.07.2022 kl 12:10 176

de produserer vel rett over 10.5m bblsd, når sant skal sies.
snittet siste 25 år er vel under 10.