#VLCC -6% to $8k/d
#Suezmax -4% to $8k/d
#Aframax -6% to $5k/d
#LR2 +5% to $19k/d
#LR1 +0% to $14k/d
#MR +99% to $17k/d

Innlegg på et forum i USA

Crude Demand Makes Surprise Recovery

I was going to highlight some key sentences, but the whole article is worth the 2-minute read:


Crude Demand Surprise Recovery

Despite projections that the coronavirus pandemic would hasten peak oil demand, global consumption for the commodity has rebounded by an astounding 13 million barrels per day in the past four months, according to a new study.

Global oil demand has now recovered to 89 per cent of what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic crushed oil markets and oil prices as commuters stayed home and air traffic ground to a near halt, IHS Markit analysts said in a report Tuesday. The energy research firm is now estimating that oil demand growth would recover to between 92 per cent and 95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels even without a vaccine by the first quarter of 2021.

Oil demand will likely stay at that level, between 92 million and 95 million barrels per day, until the virus is contained or effective vaccines are developed. Pre-pandemic oil demand had climbed to around 100 million bpd.

“We were surprised (oil demand) has gone up even with the surge in U.S. cases in June and July,” Jim Burkhard, vice-president and head of crude oil research at IHS Markit, told the Financial Post.

Burkhard said his firm had previously expected crude oil demand to rebound but also expected the coronavirus pandemic would be better contained by this point. He said global oil demand has rebounded primarily on the back of European and Asian economies reopening.

In the U.S., where there have been close to 5.8 million cumulative cases and 177,773 deaths according to Johns Hopkins University data, demand for crude has also rebounded sharply.

Burkhard said the move by U.S. governments to loosen COVID -19 restrictions before the virus was constrained combined with “fatigue with social distancing” has driven the oil demand rebound in the country.

Mobility data from Apple Inc. shows that car trips in California, the most populous U.S. state, declined by over 60 per cent in March when the coronavirus pandemic forced lockdown orders, but trips by car have fully recovered. Car trips are up six per cent more now in the state than at the start of the year.

“There’s been record oil demand growth. It’s only a record because of how low demand sank in April,” Burkhard said, warning that he expects global oil demand is now approaching a “plateau” because many commuters are still working from home and air travel hasn’t recovered.

It would take an effective vaccine or better containment of the coronavirus pandemic before oil demand fully recovered because air travel hasn’t recovered and many would-be commuters are still working from home, Burkhard said.

A full recovery would be contingent on how quickly a vaccine could be developed, he said.

“The reason oil demand collapsed was behavioural change,” he said. “Those behavioural changes would strengthen the trend of working from home.”

If an effective vaccine is developed in the near term, and people return to their work commutes, air travel plans and pre-virus activities, a full rebound in oil demand is likely.

“The longer it goes on, the more permanent behavioural changes we’ll see,” Burkhard said.

On the supply side of the equation, both Burkhard and Kevin Birn, IHS Markit’s vice-president for crude oil markets, note that production from the U.S. is set to decline sharply — by three million barrels per day this year. By contrast, oil supply in Canada is rebounding and could potentially gain some market share in U.S. refining centres.

“From everything we can glean at this point, we see oilsands production largely in recovery and in different states of recovery,” Birn said. “By and large, we believe that the oilsands assets are largely in tact and will be able to ramp up.”

Oilsands investment has fallen sharply in recent years, even before the pandemic, and is expected to decline again this year. However, an Aug. 19 report from the Canadian Energy Research Institute expects oilsands production to grow despite recent challenges and turmoil in crude oil markets this year.

“Even before the pandemic, the decline in global oil prices, surging crude inventories and geopolitics have had an impact on the crude oil industry and slowed the pace of upstream investment around the world — including oilsands development in Canada,” the CERI report noted.

The CERI study forecasts that oilsands production will fall this year but continue to grow over the next 19 years. Under its most aggressive growth scenario, CERI projects oilsands supply will grow from 3.1 million bpd to reach 4.7 million bpd in 2039. Under its slowest growth scenario, the think-tank expects oilsands supply will peak at 4.3 million bpd by 2039.

Enig i at vi ikke ønsker Contango, men når det gjelder Cleaves så har han vel bommet på omtrent alt som er :p
For å nevte fem ting;
1) Dommedagsscenarioet hvor markedet var råttent også i 2022, basert på vedvarende katastrofale TCE uten særlig skraping.
2) Høy CBE for HUNT i 2021 selv om selskapet hadde annonsert reduksjon ifbm finansiering og refinansiering.
3) Dommedagsprofeti for hvor lav TC skulle bli i Q3 (derav hans glede over at enkelte ruter nå ser ut til å ha slutninger der han mente at snittet ville ligge)
4) Target prices endret nesten fra uke til uke, over hele fjøla. Langt større endringer enn hva aksjekursene har funnet på av sprell
5) Q2/20 forecast for VLCC dumpet fra ca 105k til 80k (i dommedagsutgivelsen)

Jeg liker gjerne å vise til Cleaves selv jeg, men da fordi at han p.t fremstår som pessimisten blant analytikerne (og så har han mye godsaker i bunn som man kan benytte selv om man er uenig i konklusjonen). Skjønt nå har han jo korrigert seg saftig inn (bullmarket H2/2021 i stedet for 2022, CBE for HUNT redusert osv) så nå kan jeg kanskje ikke bruke han som worst case scenario lenger

Ja, vanskelig å forstå? Contago ødelegger hele markedet. Man får skyhøye rater i spikes når det pågår, men er bare flaks når man treffer en slutning på ratetopp. ADS er perfekt eksempel på det. Jeg ønsker et sterkt marked som drar nytte av lavt antall nybestillinger fremover og mangel på tonnasje. Vil ha jevnt høye rater over lengre tid som det lå an til å bli før corona kom.
JH og Clieves mener at dette er ødelagt grunnet corona og contango, og man får først en ny supersyklus i 2022-2023. Forhåpentligvis før. Kommer det en ny contangorunde med noen sky høye ratespikes så blir aksjekrusen litt høyere og markedet forblir ødelagt en god del lengre frem enn 2022. Akkurat nå har vel Clieves truffet på omtrent alt som er ?

Templeton Emerging Markets
NYSE: EMF
Følg
15,50 USD +0,22

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=quote+ticker+EMF&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Hurricane Laura poses biggest threat to U.S. oil in 15 years

Hele artikkel Reuters

An Exxon spokesman did not have immediate comment. If its Baytown plant fully halts processing, total shutdowns would hit more than 2.3 million bpd."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-laura-energy/hurricane-laura-poses-biggest-threat-to-us-oil-in-15-years-idUSKBN25L1VL

Har du snakket med din Amerikanske venn nå igjen?

Old and Grumpy '' dessverre '' mot contango ????

Dutch, Belgian patients re-infected with coronavirus - NOS report

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - A patient in the Netherlands and another in Belgium have been confirmed as having been re-infected with the coronavirus, Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported on Tuesday, citing virologists.

The news follows a report this week by researchers in Hong Kong about a man there who had been re-infected four and a half months after being declared recovered.

The NOS cited virologist Marion Koopmans as saying the Dutch patient was an older person with a weakened immune system.

She said that cases where people have been sick with the virus a long time and it then flares up are better known.

But a true re-infection, as in the Dutch, Belgian and Hong Kong cases, requires genetic testing of the virus in both the first and second infection to see whether the two instances of the virus differ slightly.

The Belgian patient had mild symptoms, the NOS cited virologist Marc Van Ranst as saying. But “it’s not good news,” he added.

***** He said the case shows antibodies the patient developed during the first exposure were not enough to prevent a second case with the slightly different variant of the virus. *****

He said it is not clear whether such cases are rare or whether there are “many more people who could have a re-infection after six or seven months”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-netherlands-reinfe/dutch-belgian-patients-re-infected-with-coronavirus-nos-report-idUKKBN25L0JO?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018 Template: UK MORNING DIGEST 2020-08-25&utm_term=NEW: UK Morning Digest

Dessverre?

Handler vel ikke om mutasjon? Men om forventede antistoffer etter 1.gangssmitte ikke fungerer som forventet. Noen personer som var smittet i mars hadde fremdeles antistoffer i juli, andre smittede som har blitt friske har man ikke sett noen antydning på historisk corona-smitte. At viruset er uforutsigbart er vel ikke noe nytt?
Ja, kan dessverre se ut som en ny contango er i ferd med å komme på trappene.

Ifølge Platt, begynner '' marginene '' å nærme seg Contango nivåer.

Tyskland, på grisen og mesteparten av Europa er KoronaRØDT igjen.

Foruroligene med 2-gans smitte, det har vi hørt fra Kina tidligere, man
blir tilsynelatende ikke immun etter smitte 1 gang. Vi vet fra før at
Korona ville mutere flere ganger..

Og i dag sier man at det er fler i Belgia og Nederland som er smittet for 2ndre gang

Vurderer å investere hardt nå, men synes aksjekursene holder seg forholdsvis høyt gjennom hele tankfjøla, uavhengig tce-kontrakter eller ei.

#VLCC +1% to $9k/d
#Suezmax -3% to $8k/d
#Aframax -1% to $5k/d
#LR2 +3% to $17k/d
#LR1 +1% to $14k/d
#MR +17% to $7k/d

Klager ikke. Har vært litt ute og inne. Men nå har jeg snittet meg ned 3 ganger i FRO

Kjøpte Golden Ocean, tørrlast kommer til å fosse frem om ikke lenge, Tonnmil, Brasil nå
verdig konkurrent med Australia igjen, iron ore, hvete, solsikke etc.

Blir en fin høst i shipping, mener JEG, men, det er MIN konklusjon, basert på de tall og
fakta jeg sitter med.

Enhver sin egen tue, eller slott !

Går bra med tank aksjene dine Flipper?

Flotte greier. Nå har Collier noen som vil billigere inn. At noen faller for dette, gang efter gang er
meg en gåte .....

Vi ser ut til ''' kanskje '' å se en ny runde med Contango, ifølge Platts ( som kjenner markedet for
alt av Comodity Market ), alt fra korn, kull, epler bananer etc.; sier at utviklingen går mot dette, når
de ser det nåværende bilde, samt vet ALT om hvilke commodities og volum med forward kontrakter
ER, i Penger..

Mye selvfølgelig avhengig av utviklingen på Korona '' den nærmeste fremtid ''; og vi ser at etter litt
åpninger land til land, nå viser sitt '' sanne ansikt ''; med en Vesentlig, Allerede økning i Korona smitte;
så heller jeg til at det blir nye nedstengninger; med dets resultat.

Husk. Italia, Spania, Hellas, Portugal etc. utgjør turismen en veldig stor andel av Brutto Nasjonal Budskjett.
DERFOR tror jeg de '' måtte ta sjansen '' på og åpne for tidlig. Vel det kan vise seg å straffe seg, det
ser vi allerede. Selv Sverige, som ikke stengte ned noe, øker selv der smitten, og det er FARETRUENDE
at smittede nå i stor grad er yngre, enn de eldste, for å det sånn. 40 og 50 åringer. Får håpe det KUN
smitte, og ikke dødsfall av yngre, at de har mye sterkere immunforsvar og mye bedre helse.

Å høre på ANALytikere har jeg sluttet med for 25 år siden. Er pensjonert skipsmegler, og vi kjente vårt markedet,
så jeg vet, analytikerne bruker tall på det til enhver tid gjeldende market; for så å bruke AKADEMEDISKE
utregingerr med, likning matematikk, med 100 Ukjente. Så langt kom jeg ikke på skolen i matte, kun 2 ukjente,
og det var vanskelig nok for meg.

Bruk sunn fornuft. Forumet er KUN for å få Linker og Informasjon; for så å gjøre seg opp en EGEN MENING,
MAGE FØLGELSE, og ikke minst:

Bruk ditt eget hue ...... og, for all del, IKKE invester på grunnlag av hva en forståsegpåer Mener å vite.

DET ER SPEKULASJONER, rene synsinger, og meninger ....

Good luck all

Deprimerende: halverer kursmål på fro. https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/aksjeanalyse/2020/08/24/7558842/meglerhus-vraker-kjopsanbefaling-halverer-kursmalet

Om USA har nok Gull håper jeg de går over til Gold Standart for Greenbacken; i stedet for FIAT basert valuta.

ks1977, du har rett i det. generellt vil nok alle slite ved en dollar kollaps. Men mitt poeng var at de selskap som kjører i dollar vil få større utfordringer. Mhp globale ringvirkninger, så må jeg nok melde pass. Det blir for komplisert for meg. Men vi får håpe USA finner en løsning på betjening av gjelden sin,ellers kan det bli....skal vi si volatilt i det minste.

Husker ikke om jeg ga denne ?

OPEC Continues Optimistic View

https://www.rigzone.com/news/opec_continues_optimistic_view-21-aug-2020-163080-article/?utm_campaign=DAILY_2020_08_21&utm_source=GLOBAL_ENG&utm_medium=EM_NW_F1

Snakker du om ekstreme tilfeller som hyperinflasjon så vil jo gjelda forsvinne av seg selv, samtidig som at rederne antageligvis vil gå over til rater i andre valuta/former enn USD (de som er på TC vil jo rammes, men kan kanskje på berope seg Force Majeure).

En tilbakegang av USDNOK til 6 vil være uheldig for oss norske investorer (men det gjelder jo ikke bare shipping)

Flipper

Hvis du leser litt om hva som skjer ved en dollar kollaps, vil du fort finne ut at man få høyere renteutgifter og f.eks hyperinflasjon pga importkostnadene stiger. Så hvis ikke den vedlikeholdsdelen produseres i dollarkurs, vil vedlikeholdskost stige voldsomt.... osv.. Men kort fortalt, Dollar kollaps VIL påvirke selskap som kjører i dollar ekstra negativt som f.eks shipping.

Grunnpilar

Du sier: << svakere dollar gir lavere utgifter,men også mindre inntekter/omsetning. >>

ALLE UTGIFTER OG LÅN ER I USD.

Det er intet rederi som handler i annen valuta, med unntak av noen få, men de er basert
på langtidskontrakter, f.ex. LNG skip bygget i Japan, og Bare Boat rate i samkjør med
gjeld i Yen. Charter er typisk hva jeg kaller, Industry shipping, med gitt avkastning. Det
samme gjelder Car Carrier vessels.

Din tankegang blir helt feil. Det er IKKE OSE som er toneavgivende, men US Exchanges,
dog følger NYSE askjer stort sett, NOK ved handler derover.....

Kan ikke forklare hva jeg hevder, i shorthand ....

Eurozone : PMI Composite Flash

https://fidelity-fcm.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=513115&cust=fidelity-global&year=2020&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Flipper

Ja, du har rett i at svakere dollar gir lavere utgifter,men også mindre inntekter/omsetning. Men aksjekursen er i NOK,- så tenker at det har noe og si, og hva en dollar kollaps gjør med USA sin økonomi og evt deretter resten av verden. Så tenker vel kort og godt, at det ikke er bra for økonomien generellt og spesiellt ikke akjsekursen til den som driver selskap i dollar.

Euronav fortsetter ned i Brussel, så tok et lodd der. Virker for meg som det safeste bettet innen sektoren.

Grunnpilar

Forstår ikke ditt resonnement

ALLE utgifter, mannskap, amortisering, bunker, havnekostnadexr etc. etc. er

ALT i $.

U.S.A. gjeld også i $, så valutakurs spillerer jo ikke noen rolle da kostnader og inntekter er
i $.

Det har vært snakk om å slutte skip i Euro eller Kina valuta, endog i Sveitser Franc. Disse
kan man se langt etter. Ingen valuta dekker hele verden, Green Back er hva som gjelder,
okke som, short of WWIII.

Vel, så fall spiller ALT ingen rolle, $ ¢ eller edle metaller.

Guldbholdningen som Norge har i UK, etter flyttet når Nazi
forpurte oss, er ikke mer hvert '' kostnaden '' Ved å flytte
guld etc. tilbake til Norge.

Guld, i Harde Gold bricks i Sveits, i TRANSITT, på Zurich air port.

Hvordan kan '' noen '', spesielt private, benytte seg av disse verdier ?

unikum

Du BEHØVER ikke Å lese info du finner Vanskelig å akseptere.

Kan du Engelsk, forøvrig, Bruk Google translator, gir bra oversettelse fra Engelsk til Norsk og vice versa.

Link:
https://translate.google.no/#view=home&op=translate&sl=no&tl=en&text=Northern%20Drilling%20Ltd.%20(the%20%22Company%22)%20advises%20that%20its%202020%20Annual%20General%0AMeeting%20will%20be%20held%20on%20August%2031%2C%202020.%20A%20copy%20of%20the%20Notice%20of%20Annual%20General%0AMeeting%20and%20associated%20information%20including%20the%20Company's%20Consolidated%0AFinancial%20Statements%20for%202019%20can%20be%20found%20at%20the%20website%2C%0Awww.northerndrillingltd.com%2C%20and%20in%20the%20links%20below.%0AHamilton%2C%20Bermuda%0AAugust%2013%2C%202020

Slik, '' slick '' propaganda er det nesten bare en Trump '' lookalike '' som klarer å skrive.

At Saudi, Kuwait, UAE etc. ikke har likvider nok til sine innbyggere er rett og slett SLUDDER-

Kuwait Can’t Pay Salaries Beyond October, Minister Tells Parliament
Fiona MacDonald and Abeer Abu Omar, Bloomberg•August 19, 2020

“Kuwait has 2 billion dinars ($6.6 billion) worth of liquidity in its Treasury and not enough cash to cover state salaries beyond October, Finance Minister Barak Al-Sheetan warned parliament, as political wrangling again delayed efforts to return to international bond markets.

The government is withdrawing from its General Reserve Fund at a rate of 1.7 billion dinars a month, meaning liquidity will soon be depleted if oil prices don’t improve and if Kuwait can’t borrow from local and international markets, he said.”

Full article at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kuwait-t-pay-salaries-beyond-102826611.html

My comment: Life is getting tough for the 'poor little rich kids' of the Middle East.

Ganske kraftig fall for Euronav i dag. De har jo kjøpt tilbake mye egne aksjer i det siste. Kan nedgangen skyldes at de er ferdig med å kjøpe? Uansett uforklarlig at den skal falle så mye mer enn andre tankaksjer i dag med tanke på den begrensede oppgangen i forbindelse med tilbakekjøpet.

Dollaren er på vei ned, og USA klarer snart ikke å betjene sine lånebetignelser. Og et evt dollar ras som følge av dette,vil påvirke shipping som kjører i dollar.

Positivt :-D
https://www.rigzone.com/news/shut_in_oil_production_is_coming_back-17-aug-2020-163032-article/

Tøff

Alle ratene er flate i siste uker... '' around breakeven for FRO ''

Dette var interessante nyheter. Jeg merker meg at tankaksjer på NY-børsen først fallt, tok igjen hele fallet, og de fleste ender dagen i pluss, også vår egen FRO. Kan vel ha noe med dette å gjøre? Har ikke fått ferske spotrater i dag. Noen kommentarer?

NEW YORK/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil shipments to China will rise sharply in coming weeks, U.S. traders and shipbrokers and Chinese importers said, as the world’s top economies gear up to review a January deal after a prolonged trade war.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-oil-exclusive-idUSKCN25A2F4

2020-08-14 07:54:05 CET

TANK: TRUMP-ADMINISTRASJON BESLAGLAGT SKIPSLASTER LASTET MED IRANSK RÅOLJE -WSJ

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Trump-administrasjonen har for første gang beslaglagt skipslaster på fartøy som angivelig har vært lastet med iransk råolje som har vært i strid mot sanksjoner.

Det skriver Wall Street Journal fredag, som viser til offisielle tjenestemenn.

Avisen skriver videre at Trump-administrasjonen forventer at konfiskeringen vil avskrekke shippingselskaper fra å drive forretninger med Iran og Venezuela.

Begynner å bli ganske lei alle disse inn limte inf om båter og div...

Venezuela oil production close to zero

"Venezuela—one of the world’s earliest and (at one time) largest oil producers, as well as a founding member of OPEC—could soon be producing close to zero barrels of oil, according to a new analysis by IHS Markit.

Venezuelan crude oil production is currently 100,000-200,000 b/d and falling. Production was around 650,000 b/d just a year ago and had been as high as 2 million b/d as recently as 2017. It is now conceivable that the country could soon be producing zero barrels, or very close to it.

“Never before has a former major oil producing country seen output fall so low for so long. In Venezuela’s case, if there is any surprise it is that the disintegration did not happen faster,” said Jim Burkhard, vice-president and head of oil markets, IHS Markit.

The country is now the third smallest producer among OPEC’s 13 members, just ahead of Equatorial Guinea and war-torn Libya.

Venezuela’s production fall—the product of decades of decline and decay—has been exacerbated more recently by the COVID-induced oil price collapse of 2020, US sanctions, and limited domestic oil storage."

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14181643/venezuela-oil-production-close-to-zero

WOW - Israel, UAE agree to normalise relations, with help from Trump

DUBAI/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Israel and the United Arab Emirates announced an agreement on Thursday that will lead to a full normalization of diplomatic relations between the two states, a move that reshapes the order of Middle East politics from the Palestinian issue to Iran.

Under the accord, which U.S. President Donald Trump helped broker, Israel has agreed to suspend annexing areas of the occupied West Bank as it had been planning to do, White House officials said.

It also firms up opposition to regional power Iran, which the UAE, Israel and the United States view as the main threat in the conflict-riven region.

Israel had signed peace agreements with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. But the UAE, along with most other Arab nations, did not recognise Israel and had no formal diplomatic or economic relations with it until now.

The agreement was the product of lengthy discussions between Israel, the UAE and the United States that accelerated recently, White House officials said.

Saudi Aramco to boost output regardless of huge profit drop

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

August 11, 2020, by Bojan Lepic

Chief executive officer (CEO) of Saudi Arabian oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco has stated that the company would be pressing ahead with its plan to boost output capacity regardless of massive profit drop in 2Q 2020.

According to an article by Reuters, Saudi Aramco is moving ahead with plans to boost crude output capacity by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 13 million bpd despite cuts in capital expenditure this year and next year.

Aramco’s capital spending plan for 2021 will be “significantly lower than previous guidance”, CEO Amin Nasser stated in a call with analysts and investors after the company’s second-quarter results.

Saudi Aramco’s previous capital spending guidance was $40 billion to $45 billion.

“We are proceeding with increasing our maximum sustainable capacity from 12 to 13 million barrels”, Nasser said. According to the Saudi Aramco CEO, it should not have a major impact on capital in 2021.

It is worth noting that Saudi Aramco reported a 73 per cent fall in its second-quarter profit, as lockdowns to contain the coronavirus reduced oil consumption and sent prices crashing to levels not seen in nearly two decades and WTI to negative prices.

In the second-quarter report, the company said that it expected capital expenditure for 2020 to be at the lower end of a $25 billion to $30 billion range.

The company reported a profit of $6.5 billion in the second quarter of 2020 which is a massive drop from the $24.68 billion in the same quarter last year.

As previously mentioned, the profit fell due to the price of oil during the quarter. Namely, the average realized crude oil price for the quarter was $23.4 per barrel while last years quarter had an average realized crude oil price of $68.4 per barrel.

“[…] we delivered solid earnings because of our low production costs, unique scale, agile workforce, and unrivalled financial and operational strength. This helped us deliver on our plan to maintain a second-quarter dividend of $18.75 billion to be paid in the third quarter.

“We are seeing a partial recovery in the energy market as countries around the world take steps to ease restrictions and reboot their economies. Meanwhile, we continue to place people’s safety first and have adapted to the new normal, implementing wide-ranging precautions to limit the spread of COVID-19 wherever we operate.

“We are determined to emerge from the pandemic stronger and will continue making progress on our long-term strategic journey, through ongoing investments in our business – which has one of the lowest upstream carbon footprints in the world”, Nasser stated in the financial report.

Summer is always the slow season, and so many factors are involed
@ the moment.

Congestion in Chinese port will Increase, the flood having a devastating
affect on crop in China; and the Iron ore, import; the largest Dry Bulk tonnage;
now, again competing Australia vis Brazil.

[Vale was closed for months due to several things, domestic, incl..
damger for workers.] This is now resolved, and again competing with
Australia.

Ton-Miles of Dry will make the port congestion in Chinese much larger, as Iron Ore dry
cargo ships requires Large dry bulk carriers.

The few Deep Sea Harbors in China, which are few; with due also due
to flood, the infrastructure inland is damaged; and, note, the River Yangtze
( which I didn't know before ), is the 3rd longest river in the world, and consists
of 150 rivers.

Also of not, re; destroyed infrastructure, the Yangtze has been
used as The Main transport of goods of any goods. At the moment
the rivers ( 150 ) cannot be utilized, at least anywhere close to what
is normal.

A remedy using offloading to smaller ships or barges open Ocean further out,
would be a pizz in the Ocean.

Iron Ore ships, 300.000 Tdw the largest !

Food for thought..

Kinas infrastruktur og oversvømmelser, samt en haug av skipninger med Iron Ore, so far; + import av en haug
med jordbruks produkter.

Havne fasiliteter en Stor Flaskehals,......

WEEKLY: Aust., Brazilian iron ore shipments recover 1.4%

The total volume of iron ore dispatched to global destinations from the 19 ports and 16 mining companies in Australia and Brazil rebounded after one week of decline, up 1.4% or 322,000 tonnes on week to 24.1 million tonnes over August 3-9 with all the added volume from Brazil, according to Mysteel’s weekly survey.

Over the period, Australian iron ore shipments from its ten ports bound for global destinations decreased for the third week by another 1.5% or 246,000 tonnes on week to 16.4 million tonnes, while the volume from Brazil’s nine ports to global destinations rebounded by 8.1% or 568,000 tonnes on week to 7.6 million tonnes, ..... trenger login med Firma mail, og pensjonist har jeg ikke det. Andre ?

https://www.mysteel.net/article/5017702-0601/WEEKLY--Aust--Brazilian-iron-ore-shipments-recover-14.html

Reuter - Philippines' Duterte has 'huge trust' in Russia vaccine, volunteers for trial

MANILA (Reuters) - Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has lauded Russia’s efforts to develop a coronavirus vaccine and is willing to personally participate in trials, as he welcomed a supply offer from Moscow that he expects will be free of charge.

More on link :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-philippines-russia/philippines-duterte-has-huge-trust-in-russia-vaccine-volunteers-for-trial-idUSKCN2570HS

DHT slår forventningene og kommer med brukbar guiding. Stiger 6% i pretrade.

https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1292926739879002118

jaja, flipper. hvordan syns du dette gikk?

Hva nå, når Kina pga, oversvømmelser og må importere en haug med ris, hvete, mais etc.

Da blir ikke køen mindre for lossing, være seg vått eller tørt

Overskrifte Tradewinds

Tanker congestion remains severe in China with over 80 ships waiting
A 2019-built VLCC has been waiting off Qingdao for nearly 60 days

En kar i Clarksons Platou spår overkapasitet ut året. https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2020/08/10/7554664/spar-overkapasitet-ut-aret

Mye mulig, og flere skip som var i contango er tilbake i vanlig drift, og enda flere skip forventes tilbake neste 6 månedene. Tror likevel spådommen er overpessimistisk. Kommer helt an på corona-situasjonen. Før corona ble det spådd et press på rutene og tidenes tank-år i 20,21 og 22 da det er for få skip i markedet og for få nybestillinger. For håpe dette vil slå inn når markedet normaliseres - igjen.

Due to, same purchasers, China, both, Dry and Wheat cargo, relevant to both markets, LACK OF DEEP WATER BERTHS in China
Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers. As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 2
July 30.. 2020 - Already started then

China’s Corn-Market Pop Could Lift American Farmers

https://ussanews.com/…/chinas-corn-market-pop-could-lift-a…/

China has already stepped up purchases of American farm goods, and forecasts record corn imports overall

By Lucy Craymer

Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers.

As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 27% to about 2,306 yuan ($329) a metric ton, a level last seen in the summer of 2015.Corn PopsCorn prices in China have climbed to a five-year high, one reason the country is buyingmore grain from abroad.

Front-month futuresSource: FutureSourceNote: 1,000 yuan=$142.81.yuan a metric tonFeb. 2020July1,6001,8002,0002,2002,400
Back in 2016, the Chinese government ended a long-running price-guarantee program for corn farmers that had led to the accumulation of massive amounts of the grain. Withdrawing the supports caused Chinese corn prices to plunge. Low prices and the lingering oversupply led farmers to cut back production.

China uses corn primarily for animal feed, but low domestic prices over the past four years caused it to find other uses as well, such as for cooking starch. Still, it has taken years to significantly reduce stockpiles and allow prices to recover. But with prices now soaring, industry analysts say they expect China to step up imports of corn and other grains, such as sorghum and barley, to help meet demand.

That would benefit U.S. grain farmers, suffering from falling prices this year. The coronavirus pandemic has damped sales, and the market is further depressed by expectations of a larger corn crop later this year, thanks to farmers’ increasing the amount they planted. The U.S. harvest typically begins in September.

China has already stepped up purchases of American farm goods this year, looking to hit purchasing targets laid out in the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal signed in January.Grainy PictureChina’s gross purchases of U.S. corn havejumped this year.Source: U.S. Department of AgricultureNote: 2020 figure is through July 16.million metric tons2015’16’17’18’19’200.00.51.01.52.02.5

“China is going to have to buy more grains, and the trade deal with the U.S. shoehorns that demand toward the U.S.,” said Tobin Gorey, agri-strategy director at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. That is providing some support to U.S. prices, he added, though not enough to overcome the effect of the looming large new crop.

China bought 2.1 million metric tons of corn through July 16, up from 315 thousand metric tons in the same period last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The world’s most populous nation and No. 2 economy is also the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the U.S.

On July 10, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said it expected to import six million metric tons of corn in the 12 months ending this September. That was 50% higher than its earlier forecasts and would represent the highest total ever.

Chinese authorities said the jump partly reflects efforts to fulfill trade-deal commitments. But analysts say imports will also help relieve corn shortages emerging in parts of the country and hold down prices for users such as ethanol producers, struggling to make a profit. And demand for feed is rising as farms expand hog herds that were decimated by last year’s epidemic of African swine fever.Creamed CornU.S. corn prices have been weak this year, hitby a pandemic-driven drop in demand andexpectations of a big harvest this fall.Front-month futuresSource: FutureSource.a bushelFeb. 2020July2.803.003.203.403.603.80$4.00

China’s own corn production is expected to rise slightly but isn’t enough to meet the country’s needs. Planting was hampered partly by a rise in costs—notably labor, pesticides and fertilizers—as Covid-19 broke out earlier in the year.

Another reason China is buying more corn from abroad, said Michael Underhill, chief investment officer at Wisconsin-based asset manager Capital Innovations, whose investments include agricultural businesses: It is a bargain. Import corn prices are currently around 600 yuan ($86) a metric ton lower than domestic corn prices in China.

—Zhou Wei contributed to this article.

Write to Lucy Craymer at

The post China’s Corn-Market Pop Could Lift American Farmers appeared first on .

Visit the USSA News store!

Click this link for the original source of this article.

Author: paul@aetalkradio.com

This content is courtesy of, and owned and copyrighted by, https://www.agenda21radio.news and its author. This content is made available by use of the public RSS feed offered by the host site and is used for educational purposes only. If you are the author or represent the host site and would like this content removed now and in the future, please contact USSANews.com using the email address in the Contact page found in the website menu.

Spot, betyr bare at rederiet tar heller sjansen på å få bedre betalt, enn på Time Charter ( periode til fast dag rate )

En såkalt rundreise er basert på den nå berømmelige World Scale, men den går vi utenom.

Når et tankskip sluttes på en såkalt, Voyage Charter ( bergnet som en rundreise, fra A til B, og tilbake til A;
er det en klausul om tillatte liggedager, Max, derefter må befrakter betale en såkalt Demurrage rate, som, som
oftest er litt lavere enn hva et T/C ville gitt.

Den biten som du bekymrer deg om, er i Regnestykket, og ventetid utover, hva som er avtalt på et Voyage
charter, blir for befrakters regning.