Scatec - Hva Skjer’a?

Simply Wall Street om Scatec :

👎 skal nok bare videre ned.....245kr - minus 5% på første halvtimen ....JADDA !

(lavest idag 232,20kr !!!)

Ned fra 400kr på få uker.... Market Cap barbert med 25 Milliarder Kroner ! JADDA ....

JADDA - Trangt i døra når alle skal ut samtidig - snart begynner short selgerne å komme på banen - da blir det enda trangere i «boble-døra» ....

Vi har sett det komme...
Scatec virker jo mer og mer som et PONZI Scheme...?
Hvor mye gjeld ?
Hvor mye ordinære drifts inntekter utenom prosjekt bygging ?
Hvor mye tap på valuta ....

Is Scatec undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Analysis Checks 0/6
Price to Book (PB) ratio
Share Price vs. Fair Value

Current Price
Fair Value
20% Undervalued
About Right
20% Overvalued
View Data
Below Fair Value: SCATC (NOK257.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NOK56.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SCATC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

JADDA ... Kursfall på 155kr fra toppen viser jo bare at dette er en boble-aksje....
Redigert 23.02.2021 kl 22:23 Du må logge inn for å svare

Takk for tips. Da anslår jeg at tiden er inne for å laste opp!
23.02.2021 kl 09:21 1551

Scatec’s utfordringer med markedsdesign og inngåtte PPA avtaler i Phillippines og Sør Afrika (SA)

The State of Play

By Richard Cluver October 2020

Faced with one of the world’s highest unemployment rates, investors must be aware that the resultant growing social unrest in South Africa could lead to total economic collapse if it cannot be addressed soon. The crime wave engulfing our major cities is, in this respect, probably the portend of far worse to come.

Because, as an international borrower, our bonds are now listed as “Junk” by all the major ratings agencies, coupled with the fact that the Covid lock-down has decimated tax revenue, the Government now faces a stark probability that it will soon not be able to maintain both the public service wage bill and the now doubled unemployment and old-age benefits. The consequences of that in the light of our already existing social pressures, does not bear thinking about.
Never in our history has the imperative to unlock job-creating economic growth been greater but without a reliable electricity grid, growth must remain a pipe dream. Our key imperative, if we are to have any hope of a brighter future in our lifetimes, is to decisively deal with Eskom before it takes us all down with it.

In short, decades of ANC neglect have brought us to the end of the road and unless our power supply can be made reliable in the shortest possible time, disaster is probably inevitable. It is as stark as that!
Writing in the Financial Mail this month, Features Editor Shirley de Villiers quoted researcher Nic Spaull who neatly summarised the issue facing Government: “Now that the [grants] genie is out the bottle, it may be political suicide to try to put it back … Every month that someone does not go hungry because they receive R350 from the government is another month they move towards becoming single-issue voters: ‘Keep the grants’.” With elections looming next year, the ANC will be keenly aware of this.
But where is the money going to come from?
Economic growth is the only effective solution, in part because our ability to borrow is entirely governed by the extent of our national debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. If we can increase our GDP growth rate our ability to comfortably borrow naturally increases. Simultaneously, of course, growth implies both increased tax income and fewer people on the dole and so it is the sole ‘win win’ factor that can get us out of the economic mess we are in.
It is clear that President Ramaphosa knows what needs to be done. What is not clear is how much support he enjoys within his executive to get things moving or, indeed, whether the majority understand the gravity of the problem we face. What is urgent is that the country get on and remove the imposts to growth. But what the public observes is a singular lack of momentum within Government circles.
Government has been very well briefed over some considerable time by acknowledged world experts and there is a broad consensus about most of what needs to be done. From Government the singular most important issue is the need to remove red tape which is making it difficult to achieve growth.
However, while periodic statements from official sources suggest that progress of a sort is being made towards resolving Government’s highly constrained political logjam, from the viewpoint of the ordinary investors, progress is painfully slow…if indeed there is progress at all. What is abundantly clear, even to the untutored view, however, is that the pace of reform has been grossly inadequate to date and it is equally clear to everyone that we no longer have the luxury of time on our side.
Should there be any doubt about the red tape hindering investment in this country one need only refer to the comment made by Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani at the 2020 Joburg Indaba mining conference this month at which he noted that Anglo would like to explore for base metals across SA but the Mining Charter prevents that.“That’s something we’re interested in. We’re already in Zambia and other places. We want to do more in SA, so we are looking for some adjustments in the legislation, which we’ve made pretty clear to the SA minister,” Cutifani said as speakers at the conference bemoaned the lack of a regulatory environment and tax regime to encourage exploration.
Minerals Council SA CEO Roger Baxter pointed out SA attracted just 1% of global exploration expenditure of $10-bn a year. That foreign investors have run out of patience is made abundantly clear by the outflow of foreign capital. According to JSE data, foreigners have sold a net R54-billion of SA bonds this year taking the extent of foreign participation in our bond market at, 30.1 percent, to its lowest level in eight years. The steady decline of the JSE All Share Index at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent since January 2018, in my graph, is further clear proof.

Redigert 23.02.2021 kl 11:02 Du må logge inn for å svare
23.02.2021 kl 11:03 1447

The red tape constraints to growth are well known to most readers, but to refresh your memory the most important are arguably the monster of the Bargaining Councils which lay down sector minimum wages and make it impossible for small business to compete with established big business because the small employer cannot achieve the required economies of scale. Ramaphosa talks of a new dawn of import substitution but if our labour costs are not competitive this initiative is dead before we start down that road.
BEE is another because it adds another layer of costs which make it impossible for local businesses to compete with the sweat shops of the Far East.
Freeing up the broadcast spectrum and revising the Mining Charter are other well-known imposts that Government is well aware of.
Overwhelmingly, however, it is the unreliability of our electricity supply and its high cost which poses the major constraint. The graph below courtesy of the Mail and Guardian, neatly illustrates why energy cost has become such a big problem. From an average of 14.98 cents per kilowatt hour in 2002 to 90.01 cents in 2019 and still rising rapidly, it is killing our economy.

Our electricity costs more than twice that of most of the producer nations with which we compete. Standardised to the US Dollar, the average household cost of electricity in this country currently is 0.119 cents a unit compared with 0.08 cents in China, India, Vietnam, Argentina, Mexico and the UAR. Most African countries are far cheaper than SA ranging from Ethiopia’s, Zimbabwe and Libya at 0.01 cents, Angola at 0.02 cents, Zambia’s 0.03 cents, while at 0.06 cents there are Ghana, Malasia, Pakistan, Russia, Laos, Paraguay and Congo.
Worse, our system which allows municipalities to buy electricity as a wholesaler and then add on a varying profit margin is making it increasingly difficult for businesses to remain competitive within different regions of the country. Durban, for instance, at R1.8209 a unit which together with Vat represents a charge of R2.094 to the consumer is one of the highest electricity costs in the world. By contrast, Johannesburg has winter and summer power charges and applies a sliding scale which means that the lowest energy users can pay as little as R1.3545 per unit though it does rise to maximum of R2.1342 for heavy users who effectively subsidise the poor.
Just in passing then, it is worth noting that Portugal has just claimed the world record for lowest-cost solar generation in its latest solar auction which will deliver power at 1.31 US cents/kWh. That works out at just 22 South African cents a unit/kWh…..a tenth of what Durban consumers are paying!
On its own such costs are catastrophic if cities like Durban, which has the dubious distinction of also having the country’s highest rate of unemployment, wish to attract industrial development. Worse, however, has been the crippling rate of energy cost escalation which could almost single-handedly explain South Africa’s rapid rate of de-industrialisation and its escalation of unemployment.
Thanks to statistics by energy expert Sean Moolman, between 1988 and 2007, electricity tariffs increased by 223%, whilst inflation over this period was 335%. But, that was the good phase in our economic history, when our power utility was held up as a world leader. From the 2008 electricity crisis onwards, there is a clear and sharp inflection point for electricity tariffs in South Africa. From 2007 to 2019, electricity tariffs increased by 446%, whilst inflation over this period was 98%….a four-fold increase in 12 years.
Far worse, based on the currently approved increases for 2020 and 2021, the total increase in electricity tariffs from 2007 to 2021 will be 520%. By then, electricity tariffs would have increased more than 5-fold in 14 years. Moolman’s graph on the right tells the whole sorry story:
Investors hoping to see a long-term turnaround of the JSE downward trajectory need first of all to come to terms with this data and to use whatever leverage they might possess to impress upon the ANC that if it has any hope of returning to power in the 2021 municipal elections (some time before next November) it has only a few months left to demonstrate its intention to put action where its collective mouth is.
But it is not just about the cost of electricity. The key fundamental for economic growth is a reliable electricity supply. It follows that while load shedding remains a threat, we cannot hope to see any real prospect of attracting new industrial and mining development which, along with removing the Government red tape that has long strangled growth, are the most promising avenues of stimulating job-creation.
Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has repeatedly told Government that unless we can urgently build new generation capacity, load shedding will become an increasingly frequent fact of everyday South African life. A according to a CSIR report our energy availability factor ( that is the percentage of total generation capacity that is available at any given time from coal plants are that are old and creaky, and therefore increasingly unreliable) has fallen from 80% to 67% in just the past three years!
We need to get cracking to achieve the cheapest and most reliable sources of energy. The CSIR report makes it clear that if we do not act quickly we can expect load shedding by 2022 that is two to three times worse than we’re seeing today, and permanent load shedding by 2025 with as much as 20% of electricity cut off at any one time.
Coal, nuclear and gas plants take at least ten years to create, so that route is impossible. However, a number of commercial entities which currently have supply capacity could plug the gap if only Minerals and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe would sign the necessary document! Thereafter wind and solar installations are the only solution because they can easily be can be built within the next two years when, the CSIR study suggests, our grid will go into terminal decline. It just requires the political will which, on currently available evidence, Ramaphosa’s executive seemingly lacks.
The best-reasoned report I have recently seen came from the Daily Maverick which argued that: “There is, however, a solution. But it will mean creating policy certainty for the first time and bringing to an end the political bickering about renewables. All this could be done at no cost to the state. The easiest way to avoid plunging South Africa into an energy-driven economic crisis that exacerbates the current “pancession” (and also potentially triggers a sovereign debt crisis) is to ensure that a handful of key decision-makers make the right decisions within the next three months. Millions will benefit.
“For the sake of the argument, let’s assume a stretch target of 25GW of new, reliable, fast-deployment generation over the next two to five years – that means solar, wind, storage and gas backup, because no other technology mix can be brought online this fast. This notional stretch target of 25GW is derived from the Meridian/CSIR report that envisages a ramp-up to a build rate of 5GW pa for the next 20 years, hence 25GW for the first five is not unreasonable.
23.02.2021 kl 11:13 1422

Scatec taperne er bl.a:
Forvalter i fondet DNB Grønt Norden, Øyvind Fjell, starter med å trekke frem et av de norske selskapene som har størst posisjon i det bærekraftige fondet, nemlig Scatec.

– Selskapet er en viktig spiller innenfor ren solenergi, i tillegg til at de har satsinger innenfor vann- og vindenergi, sier Fjell.

– Samtidig har de en fordel med en solid valuta til å kjøpe andre selskaper, i tillegg til at de er billigere en de fleste grønne aksjer på børsen. Jeg er positiv til en langsiktig investering i dette selskapet.

Investor Total Shares
EQUINOR ASA 13.08% 20,776,200
SCATEC INNOVATION AS 12.26% 19,482,339
FOLKETRYGDFONDET 8.68% 13,793,965
ARGENTOS AS 1.92% 3,045,616
CACEIS BANK 1.31% 2,073,562
J.P. MORGAN BANK LUXEMBOURG S.A. 1.03% 1,640,409
CLEARSTREAM BANKING S.A. 0.98% 1,553,328
UBS SECURITIES LLC 0.94% 1,491,547
CACEIS BANK 0.71% 1,122,014
SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE 0.68% 1,082,260
GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC 0.65% 1,036,002
TOTAL: 61.50% 97,700,326
Redigert 23.02.2021 kl 11:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
23.02.2021 kl 22:20 1262

Blir nok nye Short posisjonene en av de nærmeste dagene...

SUM 0 0,00%
Historical Positions
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT - < 0,5% 17.06.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 807 351 0,58% 29.05.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 874 178 0,69% 22.05.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP - < 0,5% 19.05.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 994 549 0,79% 08.05.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 1 074 268 0,85% 04.05.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 005 056 0,79% 29.04.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 1 238 780 0,98% 14.04.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 117 320 0,88% 01.04.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 132 218 0,90% 18.03.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 1 263 770 1,00% 10.03.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 124 170 0,89% 06.03.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 1 137 308 0,90% 03.03.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 234 059 0,98% 30.01.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 1 036 675 0,82% 29.01.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 957 927 0,76% 28.01.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 254 267 1,00% 28.01.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 799 396 0,63% 24.01.2020
MARSHALL WACE LLP 651 774 0,52% 23.01.2020
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 134 963 0,90% 13.12.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 1 006 959 0,80% 27.11.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 881 718 0,70% 14.11.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 755 646 0,60% 28.10.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 629 855 0,50% 01.10.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT - < 0,5% 25.09.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 577 425 0,50% 03.09.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT - < 0,5% 02.09.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 574 591 0,50% 29.08.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT - < 0,5% 28.08.2019
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT 569 566 0,50% 27.08.2019
CITADEL ADVISORS II LLC - < 0,5% 02.11.2018
CITADEL ADVISORS II LLC 589 376 0,51% 24.10.2018
GSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLP - < 0,5% 24.10.2018
GSA CAPITAL PARTNERS LLP 568 892 0,50% 25.06.2018
23.02.2021 kl 22:57 1181

Anbefales Scatec , Aker Horizons, Aker Carbon Capture, Aker Offshore Wind, Rec Silicon og Pexip
26.02.2021 kl 06:46 861

Lucky Luke..... neppe

Sissener :
Selg Alt som lukter Grønt...

Verden er full av fattige folk som aldri tok gevinst. Selg aksjene, sier aksjenestor Jan Petter Sissener.
På Oslo Børs stormer investorene mot utgangsdøren.

Grønne aksjer selges over en lav sko til stadig lavere aksjekurser. Aksjer som Scatec, Aker Offshore Wind og Saga Pure er ned over 40 prosent fra toppen. Men den som har falt mest er Everfuel, som er ned mer enn 50 prosent fra toppnoteringen 8. januar.
Ørsted og Plug Power leder an

Den eksplosive oppgangen i de grønne aksjene stoppet litt opp fra slutten av januar og inn i februar. Siden har flere aksjer falt. Snøballen har rullet fortere etter kursfall internasjonalt.

Danske Ørsted er ned 30 prosent siden toppen tidlig i januar. Amerikanske Plug Power har ikke falt like mye, men mandag kveld dundret aksjen ned 10 prosent på Nasdaq-børsen. Det ga smitteeffekt til Oslo Børs.
Aksjer vil falle til naturlig nivå. Det er et stykke for mange aksjer

Jan Petter Sissener ( bilde )

De 15-20 grønne aksjene på Oslo Børs er ned mellom 10 og 50 prosent siden toppen.
– Generelt må aksjer kunne generere cashflow. Jeg tror på stigende renter. Nå er rentene i null, men jeg tror ikke det vi vil vare. 10 års swaprenter har tikket opp og, og nærmer seg 1,70 for norske kroner, sier Jan Petter Sissener.
– Mitt råd er «take profits and run».
– Nedadgående spiral
– Mange Euronext Growth-aksjer har vært priset langt over fornuften. Det har det ikke vært tvil om. Det gjelder også såkalte grønne aksjer som har vært preget av ekstrem likviditetstilgang. Når tilgangen tørker inn, og noen vil selge, så vil aksjer falle til naturlig nivå. Det er et stykke for mange aksjer, og ikke like langt for andre.
– Fortsatt er det en nedside. Alle pengene som jaget grønne aksjer, i forhold til hvor mye som var tilbudt, har dratt prisingen ut fra våre kalkulatorer, sier Sissener.
– Hvorfor skjer det nå?
– Markedet er mettet, og det begynner en nedadgående spiral. Mange privatpersoner er med med til dels lånte penger som har dratt grønne aksjer opp. Når det faller er det ingen som naturlig tar imot.
26.02.2021 kl 06:48 856

My Safe Haven : BGBIO

Hilsen BioBull
26.02.2021 kl 08:06 751

Den grønne boblen er et monster skapt av sentralbanker og myndigheter, med Tesla som Midgardsormen. Nå stiger de lange rentene og investorer ser enden på den ekstreme pengetrykkingen. Bensinen til ESG er i ferd med å ta slutt. Da kan det bare gå en vei...
Redigert 26.02.2021 kl 08:07 Du må logge inn for å svare

Du glemmer at EU kommer med direktiv nå som vil øke interessen igjen for ESG. Selskaper vil bli klassifisert etter hvor miljøvennlig forretningen er. Vil tro Scatec ligger godt an selv om SN Power muligens ikke er like grønn.
26.02.2021 kl 08:21 703

ESG er fremtiden, akkurat som dotcom var det for 20år siden. Jeg vil likevel påstå at så og si alle ESG aksjer pr idag er overpriset, og sannsynligvis vil kanskje bare 10-20% av dagens bedrifter overleve. Kan godt hende Scatec er en av dem, det er definitivt en av de bedre grønne aksjene på Oslo Børs, men er nok kanskje ikke det neste Amazon eller Google...
Redigert 26.02.2021 kl 08:23 Du må logge inn for å svare
26.02.2021 kl 18:08 531

Jeg mener Norge sitter på en helt annen kunnskap og kompetanse,og ikke minst konkurransedyktighet idag innen fremtidig grønn energi , enn vi gjorde innen IT og 20 år siden.
Mye av dette har blitt drevet frem av suksessfull olje og gassvirksomhet, og kommer til å vise seg å bli verdifullt, når vi fremover går tyngre inn i grønne virksomheter.
Redigert 26.02.2021 kl 18:08 Du må logge inn for å svare

Blir bare mer overbevist at Scatec hører hjemme i porteføljen. Dette blir veldig bra.