13,77 opp 6%.

Solgte Dorian nå, ble 1,1dollar/ aksjen på 3 dager:-))

Grattis Longsit!

Men hva med Avance - inngang på ca 32 like før utbytte, raska med deg det også og heiv deg ut igjen på 33,4 - 33,6 i dag eller er du fortsatt inne i Avance?

Selv har jeg vært overrasket over hvor godt aksjen har holdt seg tross altfor lave rater...vet ikke hva som holder den oppe i dag, men det vet kanskje du? I normale tider ville dagens rater fort sendt den 10 kr lavere.

Jeg skal ikke svare for Longsit, men jeg tipper at det er positive forventninger som holder LPG-aksjene oppe, tross lave rater for øyeblikket. Flere av selskapene rapporterte tidlig om fullbookede 1. kvartal med gode rater. Analytikerene er også positive og snakker om mulig begynnende «supersyklus» som kan gi oss flere gode år fremover.

Futtene indikerer dessuten nå at bunnen er nådd, med oppgang over hele fjøla. Hannisdahl rapportert sågar om første oppgang i dagsratene siden 11. januar.

I tillegg har vi Dorian som stadig øker sin post i AGAS. Med varmere vær i Statene, økende produksjon og stadige problemer i Panamakanalen for VLGC, så kan dette bli gøy. Hold på aksjene jenter og gutter.

Kilder:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures_quotes_settlements_futures.html?fbclid=IwAR2z1YpsX0_bsfxh0ga135Cp0Y_H3rbzdZggqvEbV1C2DqodHjrzHUjWUDc#tradeDate=11%2F22%2F2019

https://mobile.twitter.com/JHannisdahl/status/1368978430100971520

Det er nok viden akseptert at ratefallet er høyst midlertidig. Mye gjeld er nedbetalt siste året. Dvs at en eventuelt ny bunn bør være betydelig over de 16 kronene vi så i fjor. Nytt er imidlertid det faktum at nybyggprisene hos verft i Asia er kraftig stigende. Det øker den samlede flåteverdien. Gode tider skal komme.

Avance vil gå bra utover sommeren, beste shipping bett nå, rimligst på pris med en lys trend i sikte, alt av futures vil stige fremover nå.
Alltid en god hedge når det er short i aksjen, de skal jo kjøpes tilbake, de klarer ikke det på lav 30 og lite vits er det å sitte short når ratene nå bare vil gå oppover utover våren.

Voleon dekket inn 64.000 aksjer av shorten i går.
Så kan vi glede oss til resten av shorten skal dekkes.

Jeg er inne igjen også. Var litt treg på avtrekkeren men 33,9 håper jeg den holder seg over utover sommeren :)

Fremtiden er LPG fra (TradeWinds)!

Cleaves sees differing paths for LNG and LPG after 'unprecedented collapse!

Investment bank bullish on VLGCs but believes fundamentals are against LNG carriers
Cleaves Securities believes LPG and LNG carriers face starkly contrasting prospects despite both sectors suffering an "unprecedented collapse" in rates since the start of the year.

Although there has been some activity from the Middle East Gulf, VLGC rates fell another 37% to $4,000 per day on Monday, the Norwegian investment bank said.
From the the US Gulf, activity remains limited in the face of a healthy tonnage list, the company added.

The big LPG ships have seen earnings plunge 96% or $107,000 per day from January highs, while LNG vessels have lost 90% or $176,000 per day.
"These are the biggest decreases on record over such a short period of time, both relatively and absolutely," said Cleaves head of research Joakim Hannisdahl.
The driving forces behind the unprecedented moves in spot rates have been similar for both segments, he argued.

No surprises!
First, a massive surge in Far Eastern prices due to cold weather concurrent with delays at the Panama Canal pushed freight costs higher; then a thawing in Asia concurrent with unusually cold weather in the US removed the economic incentive to transport gas between export and import markets.
Cleaves said the collapse was no surprise.

Hannisdahl had also expected La Nina weather pattern to be highly supportive for LNG carriers.
"What did take us by surprise was the massive delays in the Panama Canal, spurred on by increased container traffic," he added.
But with spot rates now at operating expense (opex) levels in both sectors, what lies ahead?


Hannisdahl tips short-term support for LNG carriers from higher US export terminal utilisation, and a restocking of low inventories at major importers.
For VLGCs, he also sees positive implications from restocking at major importers.

Orderbook weighing heavy!

But in the medium to long-term, Cleaves forecasts a big LNG ship orderbook and the lack of new liquefaction capacity weighing on rates until 2024.
"The opposite can be said for VLGCs, where shipping demand is expected to significantly outpace supply, leading to potentially rising earnings, asset and share prices," Hannisdahl said.

The Baltic Exchange VLGC index stood at $27.86 per tonne, or $7,577 per day, on Friday, down 5% on the day before.
Fearnley Securities assessed 155,000 cbm to 165,000 cbm TFDE LNG carriers at $30,000 per day, down 21% from Thursday.

Clarksons Platou said: "On the positive side, brokers reported that there was a flurry of enquiries last week for at least 10 ships to load during March to May."
But on the negative side, the availability of LNG tonnage remains plentiful so competition among owners is fierce, the investment bank added.
Expectations are for continued low rates over the next few weeks, brokers have said.

Poten idag: 4968

Det er ca 32% opp fra i går. En god begynnelse......

Dnb nå USD 9.6k/day

Flg fra Eagle Maritime i dag:

LPG: VLGC rates have seemingly hit the bottom, at least from a USD/mt perspective as rising bunker costs continues to eat into TCEs. Current rates are sitting at USD 28.5m/mt, which equates to c. USD 7.6k/d (essentially opex). While the decline from the heydays in early January was a brutal one, we continue to argue the overall fundamental picture remains sound from a vessel S/D point of view.

Over the coming months we expect to see an intensification of vessels exiting the market for drydocks while some more activity and western ballasters have absorbed some of the overhang stemming from recent weeks gas market turmoil and rally in Mont Belvieu. As such, the missing link is a workable arbitrage. At current freight levels things are not too far off, but a lower Belvieu (as US exits winter demand season) and firmer CFR on higher crude and a reignition of demand from Asian petchem should push the market in the right direction sometime in the 2nd quarter.

Jeg ser nå at Dorian fyker avgårde, opp nå nesten 5%. Henger sammen?

Poten idag: 7002

Alt av futures (FFA) går opp i kveld.
Ser man futures måned for måned er det stort sett bare oppover frem til høsten.

Nå ser det bedre ut.
Kuldeproblemene i Texas er over, produksjonen tar seg kraftig opp.
Kulden gir seg i USA, hjemlig LPG-forbruk kraftig ned.
Lagrene uendret for første gang på lenge. Neste uke blir det økning eller høy eksport. Bra begge deler.

LPG: US propane and propylene stocks unchanged at 41.2mbbls
According to EIA, the average daily production of propane and propylene in the week ending 5 March came in at 2.10mbpd, up 21.2% compared to 1.73mbpd last week.

Var vel helt greit å kjøpe denne på 32kr og både få med dividende.

Asian and US LPG prices have been trending higher since mid-February on expectations of rising demand and potential supply tightness in March. Supply in the Far East is expected to be affected by weather-related delays in US exports last month and possible cancellations of March term cargoes by Saudi Aramco. Liquidity in the Far East spot market has remained thin following the Chinese New Year Holiday through early-March due to wide bid-offer spreads. More deals are expected in March with expectations that buyers would return to secure propane cargoes

But interest for mixed cargoes is likely to remain weak due to depressed demand for butane. Reduced demand for butane is mainly due to lower spot buying interest from India in recent months amid higher LPG prices and lower allocation of petroleum subsidy (LPG and kerosene) in India’s 2021-22 budget, which has been cut by more than half from last year.

Det kryper oppover jevnt og trutt her. Kurs 36 på disse ratene, gjør at oppturen kan bli artig når det løsner ratemessig utpå vårparten. Hvis ikke BWlpg eller Dorian tar et større jafs innen den tid.

Dorian opp 13% siste 3 måneder
Avance ned 16% siste 3 måneder

Rare greier

Ja, men det er det som også er skremmende.

Er 36 en for høy kurs på disse ratene? Skal man ta gevinst som Longsit i dag? Den har gått mange dager på rad. Kanskje man burde trade ut og gå inn igjen på mandag? Hva er dine tanker Long, om du gikk ut med bare halvparten betyr det at du også er i tvil, for den kan vel faktisk gå hele veien opp til 38 kanskje 40 i løpet av to dager eller hva tror du?

Tror ikke det, shipping/ stål reprises, ratene vil bare stige fremover og vi går inn i en megatrend som skal vare i mange år, senere i sommer er ratene tilbake på 40k.
Renter går opp, det vil bli dyrere å kjøpe skip fremover, prisene på skip stiger uansett sektor, se hva som skjer i stor tank, der er raten 5k.

Det er 2% short som stadig skal dekkes på høyere kurser.
Uten sammenligning forøvrig, men vekker et smil.
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/finans/2021/03/10/7640044/short-konger-gir-opp-etter-dobbelt-smell
Alle som shorter shipping nå vil tape penger, bare rørebukker som shorter på 50% av Nav

Men usikker er du om du halverte innsatsen på 36 kr...

Kjøper alle de andre argumentene. Shorten tror jeg ikke betyr noe. Føler Voleon har en kronisk short i Avance og aksjen vil jo selvfølgelig krakke på et eller annet tidspunkt og gi shorterne en fin gevinst. Ser ikke for meg noe skvis.

Gjør du ikke? Ikke noe skvis?
Syns aksjen er opp 5% jeg, fortsatt 45% under Nav, finner du andre shippimg aksjer umder Nav nå, bortsett fra Jinhui Shipping

Nei, jeg tror ikke en skvis vil drive aksjen opp og håper ikke det heller.

Men den er billig sett på NAV ja, men det har den vært tidligere også når du har solgt deg ut. Ratene er ekstremt lave og det er ikke mye negative impulser fra dem som eventuelt sørger for at kursen faller tross at den er billig basert på underliggende verdier.

Jeg var bare mest nysgjerrig på hvorfor du solgte ut halve posten din, men ser at jeg ikke får svar. ;)

Forde jeg kjøpte veldig mye på 32 før dividende
Nå fikk du svar.

Takk. ;)

Og grattis - det var et latterlig godt tidspunkt å kjøpe!

LPG – US production back above the 2 mbd mark… (ARCTIC)
Yesterday, EIA published weekly propane and propylene production, demand and imports figures for the week ending 5 March. Weekly production came in at 2.097mbd, which is up by almost 0.4mbd from the previous week and ~0.7mbd higher than two weeks ago.

As such, the numbers are reflecting that temperatures in Texas have been returning to normal, and that production flows are continuing to recover. It is worth noting that production is still ~0.3mbd lower than the level seen at the end of January, and given that things continue to normalise, production is likely to continue to approach those levels in the coming weeks.

On the back of the increasing production and slowing demand, inventories were flattish at ~41.2m barrels, marking the first week since October without shrinking inventory levels.. However, stocks are still ~33% below the level seen a year ago and ~15% below the 5yr average.

…and VLGC rates recording small improvements (ARCTIC)
In the VLGC market, the Baltic Index is picking up somewhat, and on Monday, the USD per ton index recorded its first gain in 39 sessions (since 11 January). The upticks continued on Tuesday and Wednesday, and yesterday’s level of USD 31.07 per ton is ~12% higher than the level seen on Friday.

This equates to USD ~8.6k/d on our calculations (up from USD ~4.6k/d on Friday), and although the absolute level is still very much depressed (just about covering opex), we find the recent developments encouraging. With increasing US production and an inevitable output hike in the AG (timing is of course dependent on when Opec+ decides to increase production), export volumes are likely to increase in both supply regions.

At the same time, the listed LPG stocks are valued at massive discounts to steel, with resale tonnage implicitly valued in the low USD 60s, vs historical average newbuild prices of USD ~72m. Also of note, is that last week, a vintage VLGC was reportedly fixed for 1yr to an Indian charterer at USD ~35k/d – obviously way above the current spot levels.

Poten idag: 7875

Rateoppgang og Dorian opp. Regner med vi får servert oppgang i FFA ila kvelden.
Lover godt for Avance før helgen.

Fearnleys LPG Oppdattering;

Rate assessment +$110,000 Usd/Måned til 370,000 Usd/PCM ($12,164.38 Usd/day TCE)

EAST
The sentiment on freight seems about to turn in the East on the back of more requirements in the market, and subsequently less ships being available on prompt basis like before. March fixing in the AG is pretty much done, and a handful of players have already started working freight for April loading. The Adnoc acceptances were published earlier this week, and the only pending acceptances for April, being Aramco, is expected from early next week.

WEST
A long-awaited activity increase has finally resurfaced in the West VLGC market, albeit the majority of vessels fixed this week were off first half April dates rather than that of March. Several vessels have been fixed at rates hovering OPEX and there are still some uncovered cargoes left for both end March and the first half of April, however, it seems inevitable that we will see a handful of vessel-overhang as March enquiries wipe out and all eyes turn to April.

Stille og rolig på vej op igen. Kun et spørgsmål om tid før vi er over 50 kr

Skjønner du hvorfor jeg solgte 1/2 parten i går på 36,3?

Dnb
VLGC owners believe markets are set to improve. We hosted a panel with Avance Gas, BW LPG and Dorian LPG. Rates have gone from six- to four-digits in a few weeks, but owners seemed confident we are at or close to the trough. Demand looks healthy on the back of the 2021 drydock schedule, increased switching dynamics, and stronger oil prices incentivising US production.

StoreThor
Ingen ting har endret seg, bortsett fra at aksjen er opp fra 30kr til 36,5 på en uke, det er 20% det.

Takk for svar.
Lønnsomt å ta litt gevinst med jevne mellomrom. Har fortsatt litt å gå på der selv ;)

God helg når den kommer Longsit.