Den siste klimarapporten fra FN gir klar beskjed: det må handles nå! Det må bygges vindkraft, solparker, batterilagringskapasitet
etc, alt hva remmer og tøy kan holde. Det kreves bl.a oppstart av gigantiske solparker HVER DAG, skal målene for maks
temparaturstigning nås. REC sitter altså med ledig kapasitet og kompetanse i et marked som står foran en etterspørseleksplosjon
etter nettopp deres produksjon. Dersom Røkke ikke får igang lønnsom produksjon med de utsiktene som er nå, skal jeg spise
hatten jeg ikke har. Jeg er overrasket over at markedet ikke allerede priser inn mer av disse utsiktene i aksjen, men det kommer nok -
kanskje AKH skal øke sitt eierskap først?

U.S. Senate narrowly approves $3.5 trillion spending plan

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-debate-35-trillion-spending-plan-enters-second-day-2021-08-11/

Veldig godt at den pakken endelig har kommet igjennom! Gode nyheter for REC og fornybart generelt.

PolySilicon Weekly Spot Price
Item High Low Avg AChg AChg%
PolySilicon 29.000 19.500 27.340 0.39 1.45%
Unit: USD Last Update: 2021-08-11

Kilde: http://pvinsights.com/indexWap.php

Tak Flyers (:

SK Innovation og Ford snakker fortsatt sammen om batteriplaner. Mye kapasitet i USA noen år frem i tid, men her kan sikkert mye av G14 sin planlagte kapasitet gå tenker jeg.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-battery-venture-sk-innovation-132154926.html

Följ den här tjejen på LinkedIn. Hon följer och skriver om vårt intresse på nära håll

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2021/08/senate-3-5-billion-budget-plan-includes-ban-on-solar-projects-using-materials-sourced-from-china/

NEO Battery Materials Files Fifth Patent for its Proprietary Process of Manufacturing Silicon Anode Active Materials - Batteries News
https://batteriesnews.com/neo-battery-materials-patent-process-manufacturing-silicon-anode-active-materials/

The Company will focus on exploring and producing silicon and providing improvements in capacity and efficiency over lithium-ion batteries using silicon and graphite in their anode materials. The Company intends to become a silicon anode material supplier and producer to the electric vehicle industry.
-----
Blir vel en konkurrent men retningen de tar er underbygger REC sin posisjon, de holder forøvrig til i Canada

Flott at de ser bærekraft i dette . Å bygge en fabrikk tar ca 3 år ..
ML kan være oppe ila kortere tid .
Dette taler bare for at REC sitter på gull :-)

Tar ikke bare 3 år. Koster 1,5 mrd USD også. De kan få hele REC inkl. Butte for 600MUSD.
Vet hva jeg ville ha gjort hvis jeg ville ha silan gas eller polysilicon kapasitet.

I tillegg er rec i USA .. landet som nettopp har vedtatt en trillion-dollar-pakke for å støtte og utvikle bærekraftig energi ..,

… ikke minst

https://www.linkedin.com/comm/jobs/view/2677660045?alertAction=markasviewed&savedSearchAuthToken=1%26AQFwFAJJLIAm_QAAAXs-QYJjFntUjztmR1aMGO0HK1e5-uRBXSdzNndJ2piDy5Fg_aK91gWUAt57sAdDsWW54mugKjr-57fhmyr86M9p7yTZwcZ4tir4NYw5OimvCmFgEkI3TBX2Ei91KMgyTkUFLP44FtZuEEmZMiwBxUazkFCpzCaiPAAF4RT3a-ttAdM57IMQAHnpOY17nnD6nDj0a_UN_v_zu4-JpeWsoQ7bR_I2yUtvEnDAKazTx9WwTMn_luU1zRdL-wOevDgOrXPRKBrFImjvNA5pG93wMdgatxYU7fPO7eFxdtjOer7L_4US7w%26AUoqSZw6JLEL4E0j-Q5sciOHXuMw&savedSearchId=1551266096&trk=eml-email_guest_job_alert_single_01-job_alert-10-guest_details_mercado&trkEmail=eml-email_guest_job_alert_single_01-job_alert-10-guest_details_mercado-null-%7E67dtne%7Eks9zjmz2%7Eu8-null-jobs%7Eview&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_guest_job_alert_single_01%3BqW%2FoqEEfTNCrr%2BDbzXuiBg%3D%3D

Ansetter operatører nå. Da skjer det ting🙂

Group 14🙂

Jeg lurer på hvor langt i prosessen REC har kommet. Da tenker jeg på endelig avgjørelse og oppstart av ML, ansatte, forhandlinger og avtaler.

👀👀👀👀

Tak for at dele Culibre! (:

The United States Needs a Solar Manufacturing Strategy
https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-needs-solar-manufacturing-strategy
AUGUST 12, 2021
“
…

Another tool for affecting supply chains is to look at how much carbon is emitted during the production process and to favor manufacturers with a low-carbon footprint. Chinese manufacturers rely heavily on coal, and one study found that the carbon intensity of Chinese cells was twice as high as that of other producers. Given how much solar the world will make in the next two decades, there is a tremendous opportunity to lower emissions. The Ultra Low-Carbon Solar Alliance, for example, is promoting standards for production and is encouraging businesses and the government to commit to low-carbon solar. Such initiatives should be encouraged and coordinated across borders. The Biden administration could also include embedded emissions in its “Buy America” provisions to create further demand for low-carbon solar at home.

The United States should also devote resources to technological substitutes for the crystalline silicon panels that make up about 95 percent of today’s global market. This would not only reduce its dependence on China but build a domestic solar industry that is internationally competitive and one day, a significant source of export revenue. Thin-film solar, concentrated solar power, and, one day, perovskites could help diversify supply chains and offer fresh opportunities for U.S. manufacturers to compete.
…
“

Hvem vet, kan jo være en som har sluttet...

ANALYSIS: Could a US budget bill amendment end up stymying utility-scale solar growth?
https://www.pv-tech.org/analysis-could-a-us-budget-bill-amendment-end-up-stymying-utility-scale-solar-growth/
AUGUST 13, 2021
“

With the bipartisan infrastructure investment bill now on its way to the House of Representatives, the attention of the US Senate moved swiftly to the budget resolution bill this week. The budget bill, which will pave the way for up to US$3.5 trillion of spending, includes vast swathes of US president Joe Biden’s agenda and, of particular pertinence to the US solar industry, an extension of the investment tax credit (ITC).

A top line summary of the FY2022 budget resolution published by senate Democrats this week details the immediate priorities of the budget bill, with a significant section establishing the Biden Administration’s aims for climate action. Within that area Democrats intend to:

Create a new clean electricity payment programme;
Establish clean energy and manufacturing tax incentives and grants;
Impose new polluter fees, and;
Create new consumer rebates for home electrification measures, amongst other measures.
It’s the leading two items in that list which will be of most interest to the solar community, both from a developer/installer perspective and manufacturers with at least one eye on Senator Jon Ossoff’s proposals earlier this year to create a solar manufacturing tax credit.

A ten-year extension of both the investment and production tax credits at a 30% rate has long been towards the top of President Biden’s agenda. A standalone ITC for energy storage – rather than the status quo which supports energy storage, but only if it is co-located with solar and installed simultaneously – as well as a direct pay option have also been supported at the top level.

But while Biden can indeed claim a majority in the senate – with 50 senators each, vice president Kamala Harris casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie – the president falls far short of the 60 votes needed to gain an absolute majority and the power to pass through bills containing such measures unimpeded. As a result, the budget resolution framework is Biden’s only real political route to passing his agenda.

It does, however, come with limitations.

Firstly, the budget resolution mechanism prohibits the passage of bills which would create a deficit on the US budget after a decade. This would somewhat restrict the direct pay option given how it is structured, meaning that it’s likely developers would only be able to claim up to 80% of credits available via direct pay.

Of far greater significance however is the way in which amendments to the bill, from both sides of the aisle, are entertained and voted on, as was seen in the late hours of Tuesday evening and early hours of Wednesday morning.

Shortly after the US Senate passed the bipartisan infrastructure investment bill on Tuesday a vote was held to begin the budget reconciliation process. Democrats won the vote 50-49, triggering the start of an hours-long session, dubbed ‘vote-o-rama’, wherein senators from across the aisle lodged amendments to the bill to be voted on an individual basis. The session went long into the night of 10 August, only concluding shortly before 06:00 on 11 August.

One of the amendments lodged by Alaskan senator Dan Sullivan – amendment 3627 – could prove particularly troublesome, seeking to establish “a deficit-neutral reserve fund relating to prohibiting renewable energy projects receiving Federal funds and subsidies from purchasing materials, technology, and critical minerals produced in China”. In short, the amendment intends to stop any renewable project built in the US that uses technology from, or indeed technology made using materials from, China from claiming federal funds and subsidies, including tax credits.

The amendment was passed with an overwhelming majority, securing 90 votes for to nine votes against.

Speaking before the vote, Senator Sullivan said the US was “dangerously reliant” on China for around 80% of the materials and minerals vital to the country’s renewables sector. “We have these resources right here in the US, and by developing our national supply chains we can create thousands of good paying jobs, protect our national interests and deny support to the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.

The amendment was supported by Democrat senator for Oregon Ron Wyden, who added that once the amendment had passed he would be seeking a “more targeted approach” to restrict the purchase of products with federal funds of any product bearing connections to forced labour.

The amendment’s passing follows heightened tensions between the US and China and the introduction of trade sanctions over alleged forced labour practices within polysilicon supply chains. A withhold release order (WRO) implemented in late June essentially blocked the import of silicon metal products from Hoshine and its subsidiaries.

The move could cause disruption to the US utility-scale solar sector, effectively limiting the number of large-scale solar projects capable of receiving federal supports or subsidies to those only using components, or components using materials, made outside of China. While the amendment would seemingly not apply to modules made in other manufacturing hotspots such as Malaysia or Taiwan, the inclusion of materials in the amendment’s text could feasibly include Chinese-made polysilicon used in wafers and cells that are then incorporated into modules elsewhere.

With little polysilicon manufacturing and next to no solar ingoting and wafering capacity outside of China, the bill could place an indirect cap on the number of renewables projects coming forward to claim ITCs. The below graph, produced by US-based polysilicon provider REC Silicon, highlights how little domestic solar manufacturing takes place in the US and perhaps highlights the issue at hand.


As the graph illustrates, while roughly 72GW of solar module manufacturing/assembly capacity exists outside of China, Just 33GW of cell manufacturing takes place outside of the country. Extrapolated further, the market size shrinks to just 10GW if discussing polysilicon production, but the real bottleneck would occur in the ingoting and wafering requirement, with just 1GW of ingot and wafer production taking place outside of China.

First Solar’s manufacturing capacity must, of course, also be factored in here – indeed, First Solar’s share price is up more than 4% this week, and up nearly 40% since the US government began its clampdown on Chinese imports. But with US module demand set to soar in the coming years, it is without doubt that the amendment could prove to be severely limiting if included within the budget resolution bill with its current language intact.

While the amendment was indeed passed by the floor, it is not yet guaranteed to feature in the final text of the bill. It could still be omitted or even amended further through secondary amendments. More discussions – and amendments – are expected to be made before the bill proceeds to a vote, which is in turn expected in the coming weeks. The timetable for it to pass through the House of Representatives and onto the desk of President Biden is longer still, perhaps reaching into November.

All eyes will therefore be on future hearings within the senate which will shape the bill as it progresses.
“

Nettopp , REC nevnes bestandig i kombinasjon med å skape en bærekraftig verdikjede i USA . Dette viser at REC har en plan :

With little polysilicon manufacturing and next to no solar ingoting and wafering capacity outside of China, the bill could place an indirect cap on the number of renewables projects coming forward to claim ITCs. The below graph, produced by US-based polysilicon provider REC Silicon, highlights how little domestic solar manufacturing takes place in the US and perhaps highlights the issue at hand.


https://www.pv-tech.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/REC-Silcion-Q2-2021-presentation-slide-REC-Silicon.png

De leverer jo vareprøver i dag til bl.a G14, kanskje han som hadde jobben sluttet?

Ser du har nevnt dette to ganger i dag. Dersom han som hadde jobben sluttet - og det er stor usikkerhet rundt om ML skal åpnes i det hele tatt - hvorfor skulle Rec søke en erstatter? Pilotprosjektet har pågått en stund og har åpenbart vært interessant nok til at G14 har inngått en joint venture med SK Materials. Hvorfor ikke bare si at pilotprosjektet var en suksess og legge det ned om nøkkelpersoner skulle forsvinne?

Jeg forstår godt ønsket om å ikke trekke for raske sluttninger her. Dette bekrefter på ingen måte noe som helst, men det enkle er tross alt ofte det beste. Det kan godt hende at man trenger en fabrikksjef for å håndtere nødvendig vedlikehold og ombyningen det har vært snakket om, men det er vel større sannsynlighet at Rec ønsker å ansette en ny fabrikksjef rett og slett fordi de kommer til å trenge en?

Ingen av oss sitter på fasitten. Jeg investerer dog på bakgrunn av hva jeg selv anser som mest sannsynlig. Dersom jeg faktisk hadde hatt større tvil rundt hvorvidt ML kommer til å åpne igjen noensinne, så ville i hvert fall jeg bare solgt meg ut og investert i noe jeg faktisk hadde troen på. Dersom jeg var helt bombesikker på at Recsi er en gullgruve i 2025, så ville jeg også ha investert langt større summer enn det jeg har gjort til nå. Til syvende og sist handler det om risk-reward.

Så. Nå har jeg forklart bakgrunnen til hvorfor jeg har satt penger i Recsi og hvorfor jeg fortsatt har troen på selskapet. Hva er ditt syn på fremtiden, omac? Jeg er genuint interessert og ønsker din subjektive vurdering uten tilsvar om vi så skulle være uenige. Jeg opplever at flere ønsker en større grad av realisme rundt oppstart mtp alle månedene ML har vært "rett rundt hjørnet". Jeg verdsetter dine bidrag her inne og ønsker derfor å høre fra deg.

Jeg tror det går bra, jeg bare tror veldig mange sliter med kognitiv bias og det sløver den kritiske tanke. Det kan være utvidelse med en stilling, men vi vet ikke.

Clean Energy’s Messy Problem II: The Solar Industry, Its Suppliers, and the Complex Task of Combatting Forced Labor
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=efc4bae9-a9c9-4bfc-91fe-46c93c21405f
AUGUST 13, 2021
"
...
2. The Current State of Supply
Four of the five largest suppliers of solar panels are headquartered in China and the fifth is heavily invested there. Many of the large Chinese solar module producers are vertically integrated so that they control their production from the polysilicon ingot right up to the module. It is very likely those suppliers have some visibility into the materials used in their production. However, to this point, they have not shown tremendous initiative in certifying their supply chains.

The suppliers have economic incentives to keep their input costs low, and not look too closely at why those inputs are so inexpensive. Additionally, the party line from the Chinese Government is that forced labor at Uighur camps does not exist. Further China has recently passed anti-sanctions measures worded so broadly that investigating forced labor in the supply chain may be considered prohibited support for U.S. extraterritorial measures.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the suppliers are aware that forced labor is an issue and that the problem is not going away. Many of them are pushing for new “change in law” and “change in costs” provisions in their contracts with solar module consumers to account for shocks to their logistics chains that they know are coming. We also understand that some suppliers are looking into whether there is a viable source of polysilicon, which could be substituted or at least developed, outside of the XUAR.
...
"

Jeg skal svare litt lengre i dag siden jeg satt på tlf i går og orket ikke skrive på den.

Om vi snakker om samme stilling er det ikke en fabrikksjef men "Senior Lab Specialist / Spectroscopist" altså en teknisk stilling. Hvorfor de trenger en person til den stillingen aner jeg ikke, kanskje for R&D, kanskje fordi hen som hadde den sluttet eller ble gravid? Hvem vet? Jeg er bare veldig forsiktig å trekke konklusjon basert på lite informasjon.

Slik det ser ut nå ser ting bra ut for REC på makronivå og jeg tror Røkke er rette mannen for å utnytte mulighetene om de oppstår. "Markedet" er uenig med oss, Voleon og JP Morgan er uenig med oss men vi på Trygves Tivoli er skråsikker. Rekk opp hånden alle her inne som harn bakgrunn fra økonomi eller handel med instrumenter, tipper det er svært få.

Markedet er og klar over mulighetene i REC, derav artikkel i januar om at REC kan få monsterkunde i FA. Men i motsetning til Trygves Tivoli avventer de utfallet. Jeg håper vi får rett, men å sitte i ett ekkokammer og hause hverandre opp er ikke bra, folk må være klar over at det er en risiko forbundet med alt av investeringer.

Det kommer frem mye bra info her inne, men fremdeles er ikke noe kommet som ruller i vår favør.

Jeg håper på ett blue sky scenario, jeg er inne med ett betydelig beløp hvor jeg kjøpte første gang på ca 3 kroner. Jeg har og kjøpt på 22,- når jeg trodde vi skulle rake veien opp. Jeg kjøpte og på 19 for 1 måned siden rett før den falt da jeg trodde at nå gikk den.

Jeg skulle jo gjerne timet de kjøpene bedre, men der og da virket det fornuftig. Det er kun i etterkant du ser hva som var fornuftig. Hvis du ikke tror meg prøv å daytrade REC, det er lettere når du gjør det i bakspeilet enn når du skal forutse neste svingning.

Uansett så har jeg innfunnet meg med at jeg kan miste halvparten i verste fall scenario, jeg tror ikke det kan skje, men jeg utelukker det ikke.

Moderate demokrater truer med å stemme mot langtidsbudsjett
Etter at demokratene greide å få både infrastrukturpakke og langtidsbudsjett gjennom i Senatet, er demokratene i strid med seg selv om den videre prosessen.
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/politikk/2021/08/14/7719437/moderate-demokrater-truer-med-a-stemme-mot-langtidsbudsjett

Beskrivelse av utfordringer for Kina med tanke på det tragiske utviklingen i Afghanistan:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/16/china/china-afghanistan-taliban-mic-intl-hnk/index.html

“ With no ingot, wafer or solar cell manufacturing present in the United States right now, it is highly likely that all solar panels coming into the country have some Chinese-sourced material. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has already issued full bans on completed solar panels that use polysilicon from certain companies located in Xinjiang”
https://twitter.com/solarkellyp/status/1427374420742524934?s=21

Dette ser jeg som et ypperlig forhandlingskort for REC i de dialoger de har med potensielle kunder.

Väldigt bra nyheter att wafer produktion flyttar utanför Kina.
Jinko kommer nog inte köpa polysilicon av REC men i teorin kan de köpa direkt av REC på spotmaknaden om de vill.
Nyheten i sig är inte direkt påverkande på REC men signalerna om att kapacitet sätts upp utanför Kina är väldigt bra.
Snart kommer det att byggas ingot och wafer kapacitet i Indien, Malaysia, Europa och USA :)

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/17/jinkosolar-builds-7-gw-wafer-factory-in-vietnam/

Ja. For litt siden var det G14 og SK som starter JV fabrikk i Korea. Nå starter Jinko litt Ingot og Wafer utenfor Kina, i Vietnam.

De er flinke i Asia. Må si jeg er litt skuffet over fremgangen her i vesten. Ikke rart vi blir akterutseilt med dette tempoet og tafattheten.

7Gw er 1,4 ganger hele kapasiteten i Moses Lake, lovende utvikling.

Jag har för mig att TT vid något tillfälle nämnt att granulat från Moses Lake med fördel kan blandas med chunks i ingot processen och att det skapar fördelar på något sätt.

Just nu finns det ingen ledig kapacitet och polysilicon att köpa så REC skulle mycket väl kunna bli leverantör men bara om de hinner uppgradera till FBR-B och mono grade.

Enig! Otroligt trött på hur långsamma vi är i Europa och USA.

En etter en inngår recs «partnere» partnerskap med andre , rec har ikke presentert en eneste børsmeldt nyhet på måneder .

Er REC for trege og for lite aggressive ? Jeg etterlyser nyheter fra REC ,

Solar Industry Comment on White House Call for Solar Investments
https://www.seia.org/news/solar-industry-comment-white-house-call-solar-investments
AUGUST 17, 2021
“
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today President Biden and the U.S. Department of Energy released an Issue Brief on solar energy research, deployment and workforce priorities. The report details a number of priorities that are important to the solar industry.

Following is a statement from Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association on President Biden’s call today for faster deployment of solar energy and on the U.S. Department of Energy’s issue brief:

“The Biden administration’s report today on solar energy shows that with the right policies in place, solar will help tackle the climate crisis, build a strong U.S. manufacturing sector and create hundreds of thousands of jobs. The Issue Brief clearly demonstrates the massive growth in solar over the last decade and charts a course for solar to grow market share and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

“The report also makes it clear that meeting the Biden administration’s goal for a zero-emissions electricity grid will require billions of dollars of investment and market opportunities through 2050 across all clean energy generation, including energy storage, electricity delivery, operations and maintenance, as well as community solar and solar for low- and moderate-income communities.

“President Biden also plans to extend the solar Investment Tax Credit, build U.S. manufacturing, accelerate transmission and storage expansion and build diversity, equity, inclusion and justice goals into this transition to a clean energy economy. Good trade policy also will be critical to the president’s climate goals. We look forward to working with the administration and bipartisan members of Congress on these critical policy issues, including by advancing infrastructure legislation and the president’s Build Back Better plan. This report shows that the vision can become a reality, and we can’t wait to see that happen.”
“

Tipper rec kommer med børsmelding når pakken har gått igjennom ..

Liker særlig: «build a strong U.S. manufacturing sector and create hundreds of thousands of jobs»

Altså/ det er ikke mye igjen til pessimistene her. Det er helt sinnsykt hvilken posisjon RECsi besitter. Denne høsten blir rå↗️