Det er litt driv for oljepris til 100 nå, men den overvåkes jo av de høye herrer også.
Er krefter som ønsker at prisen ikke skal "løpe løpsk".
Oljeministere innad i OPEC land gjør det klart at deres mål er å holde prisen under 100.

“We’re very careful at OPEC+, we will look at each month as we go,” Omani Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhi said in an interview in Riyadh. “But so far, I think 400,000 is good because demand is increasing and we want to make sure that the market is not overheating. We don’t want to see $100 a barrel. The world is not ready for that.”

API er ikke pålitelig. Ikke noe å bry seg med. EIA teller

Rimelig sikker på 90 USD i februar :-)

Vil det si at disse estimatene fra EIA er mest pålitelige?
"We forecast that the price of Brent will average $75/b in 2022 and $68/b in 2023."
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50858

Olja sterk idag! Stødig over 85$!

Stakkars Biden. Hva skal han gjør for noen grep denne gangen når olja igjen bikker 86$? Verden kommer til å få seg et sjokk når oljelagrene virkelig begynner å krympe. Ligger allerde 8% under snittet. Forrige måned økte OPEC+ produksjonen med 70 000 fat dagen, hvor de egentlig hadde mulighet til 400 000. Det ryktes om at Saudi-arabia og Russland allerede er tett på maks kapasitet. USA er oppe på 89% produksjonskapasitet. Og dette når en verden enda ikke er i full drift pga covid. Hva skjer når verden åpner og alle skal ut å reise igjen. De asiatiske markedene skal hente inn det tapte i forhold til Europa og USA. Og hva skjer med tilbudssiden ved en forverring av Russlands konflikt?

Her er det fryktelig mange barometere som peker i retning av ganske ekstreme oljepriser verden ikke har har sett maken til tidligere. Det har vært underinvestert i oljebransjen i flere år. Covid satt fart på denne utslusingen, men kommer til å vise seg at verden ikke var klar. Det grønne skiftet går for sakte. Og derfor ville jeg ikke nølt med hvor jeg ville satt pengene mine fremover. Ja du gjettet riktig. Olje. Og da spesielt innen rigg og frakt. Her vil vi kunne se rater vi ikke har vært vitne til tidligere;) Dette er bare en forsmak av hva vi har i vente.....

Jepp Mikkol. Olja over 86.30, faktisk det høyeste siden 2014.EIA er jo ute kjøre på sine estimater på olja 22/23

Chinas beskjed om å slippe olje fra SPR ville normalt påvirket oljepris, men ser ut til at det ble direkte priset inn.

Hva skjer når olje blir for høy? Jo da kommer de til enighet med Iran, og så kommer det 5M fat på markedet igjen…

Olja til $200?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Really-Reach-200.html

Det sitter nok vanvittig langt inne å komme til enighet. Alt kan skje på sikt, men kort sikt så blir det neppe noen avtale. Selv med oljepris over 100usd.

Følger du rapportene/info fra samtalene Muggost.
Står langt fra hverandre, og ytringer fra øverste leder handler om drap på Trump. Skjønner jo det forsåvidt😂
Ingenting er hogd i stein, men den dialogen er ingen quick fix.
Iran fortsetter å selge olje til Kina via gråmarkedet.

Joa, jeg ser den, men nød lærer naken jomfru å spinne, right? Går olja høyt nok blir det i mange sin interesse å få ned prisen. Samfunnet har ikke godt av priser på 100+ Så jo høyere olja går jo større er sjansen for at de enten inngår noen kompromisser eller kommer til en form for enighet. Det tror hvertfall jeg :)

Det er ingen knapper eller brytere å skru på
Dette er langsiktige greier og uansett så kommer ikke "millioner av fat" ramlende ut av et rør eller tank

Makan!

De som regner godt på dette mener vi blåser 100 USD-merket og kan få en peak mot 150 dersom ting går i stå

Snittprisen kan bli som 2011-12-13-14, på langt over 100, alle mente da at snittet for 10-året skulle bli 125 USD
Det så slik ut lenge, før det glapp høsten 2014

MEN det kan tjenes ufattelig med gryn mens det pågår.........et par år

Olja lyn !!

Det kan godt hende du har rett. Men da stiller jeg spørsmålet tilbake til deg. Hva er for høyt? Verdensøkonomien tåler fint en oljepris på 150$. Spørsmålet er om de tillater det. Og som det nevnes her, så er det ikke bare å tilføre 5m fat til markedet på dagen. Og det spørs om dette uansett er nok når verden setter fart igjen;) her gjelder det å ri syklusen. For den tror jeg blir kraftigere enn mange tror.....

Jeg tenker Iran ikke kan levere 5mill fat ekstra, det tar lang tid i såfall. De levere alt de greier til Kina og nord Korea allerede på svartebørs.

Trur Iran kan levere 1 mill fat ekstra om sanksjonane hevast på kort sikt. 2 mill etter sanksjonane har vert heva et år. Alt over dette krever mykje tid, store nyinvesteringar, utanlandsk kapital og teknologi.

Iran produserer 2,4 mill bpd no, 1,7 av dette går til innenlandsk forbruk.

Produksjonen var 4,4 i 2016 før Trump braut JCPOA-avtalen og kom med sanksjonar.

Hehe, obs obs;)

https://aksjelive.e24.no/article/66dze0

Legger ved en eldre artikkel hvor IEA snuste borti problemet som vil komme til syne langt tidligere enn hva de anslo i 2020:
https://e24.no/olje-og-energi/i/Qo1Wm4/iea-coronakrisen-skaper-historiens-stoerste-investeringsfall

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/A-Watershed-Moment-That-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-To-100.html

Hvilke olje aksje er det mulig å gjøre russiske prosenter i???

Jeg holder en knapp på oljeservice. Archer er et selskap som kan få mye , de har høy giring, men kontroll på gjelden noe som virkelig kan sette fart på den når den først kommer.

Interoil (IOX)

Selskaber, der henter olien op bliver de første og største vinderne i 2022. BWE er underpriset, så hvis de får bare nogenlunde held med deres produktion, vil aktien gå bananas. Enquest er også et selskab, der har meget at gå på.

Utvilsomt BWE.

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/olje/2021/09/24/7742249/bw-skal-vaere-foretrukket-budgiver-i-brasil

Da mer enn dobles produksjonen til rundt ca. 25.000 fat. Nye 15.000-20.000 fat kan legges til sent i Q4 i år. Ref. Hibiscus/Ruche Fase 1 og first oil. .

BWE aksjen har falt alt for mye. Fra NOK 33 til rundt NOK 22. Kort vei og kjapp re-prising/dobling.

Shelf Drilling er det selskapet du kan tjene definitivt mest på! Meget underpriset. Simplywall har fear pris på 75.05kr. Koster idag 8.58;) Selv om man skal ta det med en klype salt kan vi fint nærme oss slike tall med supersyklusen som er på vei... https://simplywall.st/stocks/no/energy/ob-shlf/shelf-drilling-shares#valuation

Petronor E&P Limited, meget spennende selskap som har mange triggere som kan få kursen til å gå mye. Produserer ca 4000 bpd og med breakeven på 20dollar fatet. Og mål om betydelig økning de neste årene. Første innlegg på forumet ''PetroNor - Oljeselskapet der pengene renner inn'' forklarer caset og mange spennende triggere i selskapet fremover.

1. Pen
2. Pnor
3. Bwe

Shelf er selskapet på oslo børs som gir mest giring mot olje. Ingen andre er i nærheten!

Er ganske så enig der, kanskje PGS matcher

Med russiske prosenter så tenker jeg mangegangeren på et år. Usikkert om bwe er en såkalt russerkandidat. Men de skal helt klart over 30 før sommeren. Shlf er også mitt soleklare førstevalg. Hvis shlf smeller opp, tror jeg også borr smeller opp (eller omvendt). Dvd om du har tålmodighet (den vil minst dobles med en kontrakt/salg seg ila året).

Blir spennende å se oljens utvikling den kommende uken! Ser vi 87/88$ kanskje?

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/drone-attack-abu-dhabi-tanker-explosion-fire-82304054
Mer uroligheter i Midtøsten, høyere oljepris, dette lover bra for 100$ fatet. Jeg tipper vi ser 100 inn mot sommeren i år

3 drept og greier , gir f… vi så lenge kursen går oppover😂😂

Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude will hit $90 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, while JPMorgan has forecast oil to hit $125 a barrel this year and $150 in 2023. Meanwhile, Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis, Claudio Galimberti, says if OPEC was disciplined and wanted to keep the market tight, it could boost prices to $100.

Med forstyrrelsene i verdikjedene og inflasjonspresset tror jeg vi skal se $148 fat.. Bare teknisk ser jo brent ut til å skulle dit..
https://twitter.com/mpskar/status/1483467552936321024

Hvordan vil en eventuell krig i Ukraina påvirke oljeprisen?

Olja sterk ikveld! Oppe å lukter på 88$ fatet nå. API tall slippes senere ikveld. Forventes kanskje trekk nok en gang?;) Angående krig i Ukraina vil nok dette være en trigger for oljeprisen da det kan hindre forsyning. Men vi får håpe for alles beste at dette ungås.

Olja ligger nok nå å vaker opp mot 88 på forventninger til lagertrekk, selv om de eksakte tallene kommer imorra.
Noe geopolitisk også selvfølgelig.
Men hadde vært litt action å bikket 90 i løpet av uka

Jeg synes det fokuseres altfor mye på lagertallene i USA.

Er jo bare en indikasjon på forbruk, helheten som teller

Både API- og EIA-tallene kommer en dag senere enn normalt pga helligdag i US i går.

https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/api-weekly-statistical-bulletin#tab-release-schedule

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

mvh

Rundt $88.50 nå. Begynner å bli heavy

Eksplosiv stemning på en del av seismikk - trådene 💤💤

Eksplosjon stopper oljeledning fra Irak til Med, 450 tusen bpd. Bl. a. DNO: https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1483566903176146950?s=21

Fra Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-18/explosion-halts-iraq-turkey-pipeline-botas-says

That OPEC’s spare oil production capacity was a problem that was only going to get worse with time became clear last year when the first reports began to emerge that the cartel and its partners led by Russia are not adding as much oil to their monthly output as agreed. Now, the gap between commitment and output has deepened, adding fuel to an already strong price rally.

In December, OPEC+ added 253,000 barrels daily to its combined production falling well short of its 400,000-bpd target for yet another month in a growing row. Naturally, this fueled concern about the security of global supply amid forecasts from the International Energy Agency that oil demand is going to exceed pre-pandemic levels later this year.

This latest forecast could be confusing to many who follow the agency’s output. In December, the IEA said that oil demand growth was going to slow down this year. It also forecasted a possible oversupply on the oil market for the current quarter, citing the effect of the Omicron variant on fuel consumption and rising non-OPEC production.

To be fair, the agency noted the oversupply would materialize if several things happen, among them, Saudi Arabia and Russia pumping at record rates as “remaining OPEC+ cuts are fully unwound.” Yet it appears to have greatly underestimated the resilience and strength of demand. No wonder a lot of other forecasters are talking about oil reaching and topping $100 per barrel.

“These monthly [OPEC] additions are increasingly nominal,” Bill Farren-Price, director of intelligence at consultancy Enverus, told the Wall Street Journal this week. “They are not fully backed by real barrels.”

“Oil has been on a remarkable run in recent weeks, driven by very bullish fundamentals as disrupted supply struggled to keep up with strong demand,” OANDA senior analyst Craig Erlam told City A.M.

“OPEC and the IEA have referenced the resilience of demand since the emergence of omicron in recent weeks and the inability of OPEC+ to hit their production targets, or even come close, has led to the kind of one-way price action we’ve been witnessing,” Erlam added.

Morgan Stanley’s Martijn Rats said in a note to clients that Brent crude could hit $100 this year during the second quarter, as global stocks of crude decline and investment in new production remain constrained. He added that high prices could persist through next year as well.

Not everyone believes oil will reach $100, regardless of all the bullish factors currently at play. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, for instance, told City A.M. that the momentum behind the oil price rally was slowing down, and we could see a correction soon. As for the Ukraine tensions, which have also been named among the factors driving oil higher, Hansen noted these were more likely to affect natural gas prices in case of an escalation rather than oil prices.



Whatever the immediate future moves of oil prices, the fact remains that OPEC and Russia and their Central Asian partners don’t seem to be able to stick to their production quotas for reasons varying from political trouble in Libya to technical problems in Nigeria and dwindling spare capacity in Russia and most of OPEC.

The strength of oil demand appears to have been consistently underestimated by some forecasters, and this could add more upward potential for prices—and not only over the immediate term. More upward potential will come from the other looming problem in the oil industry: not enough investment.

Saudi Arabia and OPEC’s former secretary-general warned that underinvestment would come to bite last year. At the time, most forecasts bet on a consistent decline in oil demand as low-carbon energy took the spotlight, but reality has proved different, and it is only a matter of time before the spotlight is shined on the world’s increasingly limited oil production capacity.

Morgan Stanley is projecting that global spare oil production capacity will shrink from 6.5 million bpd at the moment to just 2 million barrels daily by the middle of the year. This would be the result of OPEC and its partners ramping up production as per their agreement to return to pre-pandemic production levels. And this decline in spare capacity, according to the investment bank, would push Brent to $100 and beyond.

Yet the problem with underinvestment is a more serious one because it effectively means that there is a shrinking pool of opportunities to expand this shrinking spare production capacity. Just as a few years ago, the market got worried about Big Oil’s reserve replacement ratio, now it is beginning to get worried about the whole industry’s ability to produce as much oil as the world still needs in spite of the energy transition drive.

OPEC doesn’t want oil at $100. Some officials from the cartel have said as much. Excessively expensive oil is not good for exporters because it dampens demand. But this time, there seems to be little OPEC can do about it except hope that demand doesn’t grow too fast too soon so that prices remain relatively unchanged from where they are now.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Tenke seg et oljeprissjokk.
Vi har fått et strømprissjokk.

Ikke utenkelig at oljepris, og dermed drivstoff priser kan lide samme sjebne?

Noen tar til orde for 200dollar.
Det er snart 15 år siden olja nådde 140. Nå er den under 90.
Et sjokk kan sende den til ath test igjen.

Doug King, head of the Merchant Commodity Fund, enjoyed record returns last year, gaining 74 percent in 2021 and beating its previous record of 59 percent set in 2014—another boom year for oil right before the bust. But now, King is expecting further gains in the price of oil, saying it could even reach $200 per barrel over the next five years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Really-Reach-200.amp.html

Brent crude touched $90 per barrel briefly this week for the first time in years. This latest jump was attributed to tensions around Ukraine, but this is the most transitory reason for oil price rises. The bigger reasons all have to do with fundamentals. And $90 per barrel of Brent may be only the beginning.

A lot has been written recently about OPEC's spare capacity and the not too rosy outlook for it. That spare capacity is in decline for several reasons, but chief among them appears to be underinvestment. As a result, JP Morgan earlier this month warned that Brent could rise to $125 per barrel as OPEC's spare production capacity falls to 4 percent of total capacity by the fourth quarter of 2022.

The International Energy Agency has gone even further, warning OPEC spare capacity could fall by half to just 2.6 million bpd in the second half of the year. The agency then went on to say that, "If demand continues to grow strongly or supply disappoints, the low level of stocks and shrinking spare capacity means that oil markets could be in for another volatile year in 2022."

It is not just OPEC, however. The biggest non-OPEC producer of oil—and biggest oil producer globally—is pumping less than it can. Pressure from shareholders on public oil majors in the United States has increased, as has an insistence that companies focus on greening up their operations instead of looking for more oil and gas to extract. As a result, the U.S. is pumping less oil than it could and, many would argue, should.

As a result, the stage seems set for another expensive year in oil, which happens to coincide with an expensive year overall as central banks begin tightening monetary policies in response to stubborn inflation that, like the IEA's oil demand forecasts from the early days of the pandemic, proved to be far from the transitory glitch the Fed said it was last year.

"The oil market is heading for simultaneously low inventories, low spare capacity and still low investment," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note cited by the Wall Street Journal this week, summing up the situation quite nicely. In this situation, $90 for a barrel of Brent may be just the beginning.

Related: Shell’s Gas Trading Booms While Oil Trading Slows

Indeed, the Wall Street consensus seems to be that Brent will reach $100 by the summer because of all the reasons listed by Morgan Stanley and also because breakeven costs are also on the rise, thanks to inflation trends and labor shortages, at least in the United States. Yet the biggest driver of prices will remain physical demand.

The International Energy Agency admitted physical oil demand has proven stronger than previously expected in its latest Oil Market Report. Based on this surprising turn of events, the IEA revised up its 2022 oil demand forecast by 200,000 bpd. And based on its track record, it might well turn out it has once again underestimated demand robustness. Even with this estimate, oil demand will not only return to pre-pandemic levels but exceed them, reaching 99.7 million bpd by the end of the year.

In such a situation, higher prices for oil are all but certain since there is precious little—bar another round of lockdowns which is highly unlikely—anyone can do about them. The question, then, becomes how high oil can go before it begins to go down?

The answer is tricky. U.S. public oil companies are still beholden to their shareholders, who seem to be taking to heart forecasts that oil has no long-term future. They have limited space for doing what they want. Private companies will be drilling as WTI continues climbing higher. And OPEC will be drilling as well, but it may choose to keep controls on production rather than switching to "pump at will," mostly because only a few OPEC members actually have the capacity to pump at will.

Excessively high prices tend to discourage consumption, regardless of the commodity whose prices are getting excessively high. However, there is a caveat, and it is that the commodity must have a viable alternative to discourage consumption when prices rise too high. Judging from Europe's nightmare autumn and winter this year, alternatives to fossil fuels are not yet up to par. This basically means that the impact of high oil prices on demand will be slow to manifest and slow to push prices down.

Where does this leave the world? The short answer is "Not in a good place." Higher oil prices will lift the prices of everything else, and this is the last thing you want—if you're a government—when you're already struggling with inflation. It may well be that the pandemic will end for good this year, but the real fallout from it may only be starting to show.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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