Beste april på 82 år på Dow og S&P 500! Er jo nesten så man ikke tror sine egne øyne når man ser dette og kjenner bakteppet for samfunn og økonomi i april og undres over og tenker på hva som venter...Med dagens nye 4 millioner arbeidsledige har vel f.eks. USA nå fått 30 millioner nye arbeidsledige bare i løpet av april og noen få marsdager...

In One Chart

After the best April for the Dow and S&P 500 in 82 years, is ‘sell in May’ in the coronavirus era a smart strategy?

Published: April 30, 2020 at 3:37 p.m. ET
By Mark DeCambre

It’s shaping up to be the best monthly return for the Dow and S&P 500 since 1987

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-blockbuster-april-for-the-dow-and-sp-500-is-sell-in-may-in-the-coronavirus-era-a-smart-strategy-2020-04-30?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/bors/2020/05/01/7523435/gary-shilling-tror-aksjer-kan-falle-40-prosent

Coronaviruset gjør at BNP-veksten faller, arbeidsledigheten stiger kraftig og strenge tiltak mot viruset gjør at økonomien har stoppet opp i stor grad. Tross en rekke stygge makrotall har aksjemarkedene hentet inn store deler av nedgangen i mars.

«Dette ser ut som et bear-market rally, som ligner på det vi hadde i 1929-1930. Med en påfølgende nedgang på 30-40 prosent som venter i aksjemarkedet når den dype globale resesjonen strekker seg til 2021. I sterk motsetning til den V-formede utviklingen mange tror på», skriver Shilling.

SPAIN'S GOVERNMENT FORECASTS 2020 UNEMPLOYMENT AT 19%, 2021 UNEMPLOYMENT AT 17.2%

https://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/12203196/data/amp-data.jpg

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-stocks-and-us-futures-fall-as-trump-threatens-china-with-tariffs-and-earnings-spook-investors-2020-05-01?mod=mw_latestnews

British stocks and U.S. futures moved lower early on a quiet Friday as investors digested earnings warnings, gloomy economic data and the potential resumption of U.S.-China trade tensions.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said: “The FTSE extended losses on Friday as investors turned their backs on mining, travel and financial stocks. Weighing on stocks were renewed tensions between the U.S. and China, with Donald Trump claiming to have evidence that coronavirus started in a Chinese lab, thus stoking fears that another trade spat will emerge.”

Sentiment in the U.S. was further soured, after optimism over medical developments, as two of the biggest hitters reported earnings.


40 min siden
Birk Helle
Frykter økonomien ikke henter seg inn før 2022

Den europeiske sentralbanken ECB tror økonomien i eurosonen vil vokse igjen i siste halvdel av 2020, men anslår at det vil ta lang tid før den er på samme nivå som før koronakrisen.

Ikke før 2022 vil økonomien ha tatt igjen tapene viruset har påført landene i EU, anslår banken ifølge Reuters.

Banken venter at BNPen i eurosonene vil falle med 15 prosent i andre kvartal. Før den vil stige med rundt seks prosent i tredje kvartal og tre prosent i fjerde kvartal.

Bare elendighet, og børsene prises som ingenting har hendt? Og ingen vet hvordan det går når samfunnet åpner opp igjen. Håper virkelig de finner en vaksine som virker. Ellers blir det langvarig slow motion, og ett konkursras uten like. Man kan undres på hvorfor EQNR prises til 144kr med en oljepris på 25-26usd, samtidig som de taper 200-250mill kr hver dag. Det er totalt galemattias. Men, tenker det roer seg nå, når fonda har vektet seg opp igjen. Og olja skal mest sannsynlig droppe langt ned igjen.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-years-of-eurozone-economy-wiped-away-after-historic-first-quarter-drop-2020-04-30?mod=mw_latestnews

Ja, hvor ille kan dette bli? Salig Jens Bjørneboes 'Vi som elsket Amerika' blir bare mer og mer aktuell for hver eneste dag som går nå. Dessverre. Denne artikkelen er skremmende lesning, men svært relevant, etter min mening. Bør leses i sin helhet. Så følg linken.

Tump and GOP to Nation: Go Bankrupt, Drop Dead

They’re promoting policies that could push not only the economy but the US system of government to the breaking point.

By Sasha AbramskyTwitterTODAY 5:47 AM

TODAY 5:47 AM

EDITOR’S NOTE: The Nation believes that helping readers stay informed about the impact of the coronavirus crisis is a form of public service. For that reason, this article, and all of our coronavirus coverage, is now free. Please subscribe to support our writers and staff, and stay healthy.

In normal times, a report by the UN’s International Labor Organization predicting that 1.6 billion people, whose incomes support fully half the world’s population, are on the verge of losing their livelihoods would be the only thing anyone on Earth would be paying attention to. But in the Covid-19 moment, such extraordinary predictions become mere footnotes.

Take a deep breath, however, and ponder what is being said here, for it is, without a doubt, today’s Signal. Half of the world’s population is at imminent risk of economic devastation: hunger, endless debt, closed schools, the collapse of entire social systems.

In normal times, the US president would be coordinating a global response to mitigate this disaster—coordinating distribution of medical supplies, shoring up global food distribution systems, working with the IMF and other agencies to extend desperately needed credit and aid to countries whose economies risk complete system failure. The alternative is a cascading economic crisis that could send much of the world back into the Dark Ages.

But these aren’t normal times. Instead, as The New York Times documented in a remarkably detailed analysis, Donald Trump, who has been absent as a global leader, holds propagandistic press briefings—even less credible than the daily briefings by US generals during the Vietnam War—in which he either congratulates himself, mocks his political opponents, peddles conspiracy theories, or promotes quack cures for Covid-19 such as injecting bleach.

https://www.thenation.com/article/society/trump-gop-coronavirus-immigration/

New York Times analysen det henvises til:

260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus

By Jeremy W. Peters, Elaina Plott and Maggie HabermanApril 26, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/26/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-briefings-analyzed.html

FED'S KAPLAN: MUCH OF FED SUPPORT NOW IS RELIEF, NOT STIMULUS -- FOX BUSINESS NETWORK
- US GDP Could Decline At 30% Annual Rate In Q2
- Contraction For The Year Likely To Be 4.5-5%

KUDLOW SAYS U.S. IN "PAUSE MODE" FOR NEXT 20-30 DAYS, WANTS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH LATEST TRANCHE OF FINANCIAL HELP
det kan bli spennende
Fed's Kaplan: Will Take Until Second Half Of 2021 Or Into 2022 To Work Off Excess Oil Inventory
Fed's Kaplan: In Near Term, Disinflation More Likely Than Inflation
- Interest Rates Will Stay Low For Long
- Will Need To Do More To Bridge This Period


Skal se at FED tar en pause, og vil se hvordan markedet reagerer. Da er det ikke vanskelig å spå hvilken vei det vil gå. Kun FED som har holdt oppe markedet. Og gjelda er ventet å øke i USA til over 115% av BNP. Helt utrolig.

Det er ikke alltid de som brumler mest og som tar størst plass, er de som får mest rett.

Hvordan gikk d m oss i april? Var beste april for børs siden 1987, seier dom...

Omans. Du som er så glad i charts. Likner ikke oppgangen i april på en velkjent bull-trap? Og om historien er representativ for hva som kommer etter, bør en ny og lavere bunn komme. Verden har ikke vært i så dårlig forfatning siden depresjonen i 1929, og børser prises til verdien på høsten 2019, etter 11 år med bull-marked. Flott for de som har tjent gode penger i april, takket være FED, og deres forgjelding på over 100% av BNP ved kjøp av junk og store støttepakker, uten å ha pengene. Men, de må også tenke på inflasjon og en balansegang. Må vel snart ha en trillebåre med dollar for å kjøpe ett brød.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-return-to-normal-could-mean-disaster-for-the-stock-market-2020-04-22?mod=home-page

Ta en titt på chartet, og se hvor vi ligger og hva som kan forventes videre. Hint: Fear and capitutulation.

Man kan dreie alt som skjer til sitt syn. Et chart kan dreies til å passe sitt syn. (Tolkning)
Sannsynligheten for krakk, er lavest etter at det faktisk har inntruffet.
Om indeks skulle få litt pullback etter en så god måned, er det sikkert at profetene slår på stortromma, og sier at nå kommer den virkelige downturn..

Enda mere ræva tall, og det skal vist bli værre:

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/makro/2020/05/01/7523475/aktiviteten-i-industrien-i-usa-har-sunket-til-det-laveste-siden-finanskrisen

Nye, endelige tall fra IHS Markit viser at aktivitetsnivået i USAs produksjonsindustri er på det laveste nivået på 11 år, etter det som oppgis å være den største nedgangen i produksjonen som noen gang er målt, som følge av covid-19-pandemien.

Den endelige, sesongjusterte innkjøpssjefsindeksen (PMI) for industrien i april viser 36,1 poeng. Dette er den laveste målingen siden mars 2009, ifølge Reuters.

Den opprinnelige målingen var på 36,9 poeng, mens indeksen var på 48,5 poeng i mars.

I en kommentar til tallene sier Chris Williamson, sjeføkonom i IHS Markit, at produksjonsfallet i april overgikk selv det man så da finanskrisen var på sitt verste.

Elon Musk sier rett ut at TESLA er alfor høyt priset:

17:19:22
Leila Feratovic
Tesla-aksjen ned etter Musk-utspill

Administrerende direktør Elon Musk sa at aksjeprisen på Tesla var "for høy" noe som fører til aksjen synker fredag ettermiddag norsk tid.

Tesla sank med syv prosent etter Twitter-meldingen.

Det melder CNBC.


Elon Musk declared that he's selling 'almost all' of his physical belongings and 'will own no house,' and that Tesla's stock price is 'too high'

Det ligger an til at DOW vil slutte ned over 3 % i dag. Ned 2,5 % nå tre timer før klokken ringer, og siden det er helg så vil det nok på en rød dag etter de siste ukenes kraftige rekyl melde seg flere selgere enn kjøpere.

Vi får se hva som kommer av nyheter neste uke om dette er starten på en større korreksjon ned. Uansett vil jo dagens fall smitte over på Asia-børsene og Europa som vil åpne markert ned mandag

Men alle vet jo nå av erfaring at det ikke skal mer enn en Twitter-melding fra en gul (gal?) gammel mann til å snu opp ned på det meste!

Samtidig sies det (jeg har ikke sjekket selv) av de som har saumfart tidligere nedturer, at S&P i snitt når bunnpunktet 90 dager etter at vix-en topper ut. Hvis dette er statistisk signifikant skal det da i så fall med en overvekt av sannsynlighet komme en bunn rundt St. Hans.

Selvsagt kjipt for de med Tesla-aksjer på en allerede vanskelig børsdag så føler med dem, men...

BUSINESS NEWSOP-ED Published: May 1, 2020 6:07 PM UTC

Elon Musk Had the Guts to Do What the Fed Won’t: Call the Stock Market a Bubble
---------------------
Elon Musk crashed Tesla stock on Friday with a tweet claiming it is overvalued.

After years of CEOs blindly ignoring a growing bubble in asset prices, Musk’s comments are a breath of fresh air.

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve could learn something from the tech billionaire.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-tweets-that-tesla-shares-are-too-high-2020-05-01?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

FED reduserer kjøpsprogrammet sitt: FED SLOWS PACE OF TREASURY BUYING TO $8B/DAY FROM $10B/DAY

Og historisk er muligheten for ny bunn større enn det motsatte:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-tumble-back-to-its-coronavirus-lows-in-march-about-92-years-of-sp-500-history-says-theres-a-good-chance-2020-05-01?mod=mw_latestnews

Lå an til å få rett, men så kom den gule mann med en melding 3 minutter før børsslutt som trakk DOW opp til "bare" et fall på 2,55 %:

03:57 Trump says Gilead gets emergency FDA authorization for remdesivir to treat coronavirus: reports

Det er pullback nå pga Trump sin uavsluttede handelskrig med Kina og litt rasling med sabler, ergo flere får påskudd for å selge etter den historiske oppgangen.

Vix har nok ikke steget like mye på så kort tid før, og avslutningen 18 mars d.å. var ath closing. (82). Intradag var den oppe i 89 ifm finanskrisa, men stengte aldri høyere enn 79. En sentiment måling jg fulgte med på viste en så ekstrem frykt, at instrumentet var sprengt til det ytterste, ikke mulig å måle sterkere frykt, på skala fra 0 til 100 så jeg 1 eller 0, der 0 er størst frykt og 100 er størst grådighet. Nå er den på 43.

Vix kan indikere at bunnen er tilbakelagt:
https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2020/04/27/why-2020s-crash-isnt-lining-up-with-the-2008-financial-crisis

Alle gode ting er tre så nå lar ikke børsene seg lenger lure med, sier investorene nå?

Børsene er allerede pumpet utrolige 6% i to omganger på i beste fall lindrende virkning av Gileads Remedisivir (hvor mye penger snakker vi om da?????). Nesten 4% 17.april og ++2% i forgårs 29.april. I Kina floppet forøvrig medisinen helt i et forsøk for flere uker siden (les mer om det i innlegg på denne tråden: https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/97918/view)

Gilead-aksjen mottok forøvrig flere nedgraderinger i dag.

Gilead Hit With Downgrades on Questions of Remdesivir Profit

Bloomberg
Bailey Lipschultz
BloombergMay 1, 2020

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-slapped-downgrades-questions-remdesivir-122217073.html

Mulig den er bak oss. Her hjemme har vi et nivå nå som er lik 21 sept 2017, eller pullbacknivået romjulen 2018. Samtidig så har vi realøkonomiske utsikter foran oss nå som ikke er i nærheten av den "normaltilstand" vi var i da. Motsatt har vi nå den enorme likviditetstilførselen i markedene nå, som vi ikke hadde den gang. Hva er halveringstiden for "likviditets-dop", mon tro?

Jeg tror vi skal ned igjen, men det kan være biased av ønsketenkning (paradoksalt nok) for å få lastet opp long:-)

https://www.borsen.no/nyheter/frykter-grafen-ignoreres---undergangens-budbringer/72397595

- Mange forstår nok ikke at krisen på etterspørselssiden bare så vidt har begynt å åpenbare seg. Se på oljeindustrien, luftfarten, hele turistbransjen, barer og restauranter, retail og mye mer. Det er ei lang liste over sektorer som kommer til å få ordentlig juling av denne krisa.

- Det kan igjen oversettes til høyere arbeidsledighet, og et tegn på at krisa på etterspørselssiden av økonomien og sjokket det utgjør bare så vidt er i gang, fortsetter hun.

- Altfor tidlig

Hun mener dessuten det er god grunn til å forvente at Norge, og mange andre av verdens land, vil ha uvanlig høy arbeidsledighet i flere år framover.

- Det vil kunne vare helt fram til vi har en vaksine, mener hun og forklarer:

- Selv om barer, restauranter, butikker og sportsarenaer åpner igjen som følge av at restriksjonene løftes, så er det trolig at både ansatte og kunder vil være forsiktige med å returnere som følge av smittefrykt.

«Det er altfor tidlig å være skråsikker på hvor stor lavkonjunkturen som mange land er på vei inn i vil bli, eller hvordan de vil komme ut av det på andre siden. Etter vårt syn så er oljeprisutviklingen undergangens budbringer, og den må ikke avvises som bare et mål på den pågående etterspørselskrisa.»

Hun mener derimot at de lave oljeprisene er et klart tegn på at oppturen på verdens aksjemarkeder er bygd på ustø grunn. Hun tror at oppgangen vil komme mye seinere enn det mange ser ut til å tro.

- Vi har bare fått et lite glimt av krisa. Jeg tror det fortsatt vil ta lang tid før vi får et godt bilde av hvor hardt økonomien rammes, og hvor raskt det er mulig for de ulike landene å løfte seg igjen, sier Foley til Børsen.

La oss iallefall først og fremst håpe at kostnader når det gjelder liv og helse i forbindelse med gjenåpning av samfunn og økonomi, f. eks. i USA, ikke blir for stor. The Guardian er ei bra avis som man vel kan tro på. Miksturen av aggressive ønsker overfor delstatene fra føderalt hold om snarlig gjenåpning (nå også akkompagnert av støtte til delvis bevæpnede grupperinger som demonstrerer for hurtigere gjenåpning i noen delstater) og et testregime som fremstår som kaotisk, sett i et nasjonalt perspektiv (alle 50 delstater opererer på egenhånd pga manglende sentral styring og koordinering) virker litt skummel.

No leadership and no plan: is Trump about to fail the US on coronavirus testing?

Declarations of false victory and a vacuum of federal leadership have undermined testing as experts warn reopening the US could result in disaster

Sat 2 May 2020 10.00 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/02/donald-trump-us-coronavirus-testing

Trump tweets support for Michigan protesters, some of whom were armed, as 2020 stress mounts

Kevin Liptak-Profile-Image
By Kevin Liptak, CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/donald-trump-michigan-gretchen-whitmer-protests/index.html

Updated 1922 GMT (0322 HKT) May 1, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-unrealistic-about-the-economys-recovery-from-the-coronavirus-and-this-black-hole-illusion-will-cost-us-2020-04-29?mod=mw_latestnews

Prices for stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets have become disconnected from fundamentals. They will need to fall much further if the coronavirus crisis continues for longer than expected, resulting in a deep downturn and a slow recovery.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200502-france-extends-covid-19-health-emergency-until-july-24

50 min siden
NTB
NHO-sjefen: Økonomien vil være preget av koronakrisen i minst ti år

Den økonomiske krisen vi er inne i nå, kommer til å vare i lang, lang tid, advarer NHO-sjef Ole Erik Almlid.

– Økonomien kommer til å være preget av dette i minst ti år fremover – kanskje lenger. Og de næringene som er mest rammet, kommer til å merke det veldig tydelig i lang tid, sier han i et intervju med Budstikka.

Han understreker at selv om krisen kan vare lenge, så betyr det ikke at livet blir dårlig for alle. Situasjonen nå er annerledes, samfunnet er mer robust og har et langt bedre sikkerhetsnett enn på 1930-tallet, da den forrige virkelig store krisen rammet verdensøkonomien.

Almlid tror også at folks evne og vilje til å bruke digitale verktøy har økt betraktelig med krisen, og at flere i arbeidslivet dermed får økt digital kompetanse.

Sell in may and go away.
Dette ordtaket har nok aldri vært mer på sin plass enn nå!

MARKET NEWSOP-ED Published: May 2, 2020 6:00 PM UTC

Warren Buffett Still Preparing for a Market Crash With $137 Billion Cash Pile

Berkshire Hathaway's first quarter SEC filing reveals Warren Buffett is still sitting on a $137 billion cash pile, an epic market snub.

W. E. Messamore @thehuli

Warren Buffett is still sitting on a $137 billion cash pile.

Instead of “buying the dip” Berkshire Hathaway went selling in Q1.

That’s a gloomy stock market prophecy from the Oracle of Omaha.

The 2020 bear market isn’t over yet.

https://www.ccn.com/warren-buffett-still-braced-for-a-market-crash-with-137-billion-cash-pile/

Med andre ord... Currently huge amounts of stupid money in the stock market ...

Zombie-selskapene flyr høyt på S&P 500!

April 2020 var zombie-selskapenes store måned på S&P 500. Vil zombie-selskapene som knapt tjener penger, ikke greier å betale ned på sine lån, men til nå såvidt greier å betjene renter fortsette seiersmarsjen i mai og videre fremover?

MARKET NEWS OPINION Published: May 2, 2020 10:00 PM UTC

S&P 500 ‘Zombie’ Apocalypse Looms for the Stock Market

A stunning April statistic on the share price growth for "zombie" companies versus the S&P 500 reveals a lot of froth in the price rally.

W. E. Messamore @thehuli

The S&P 500 just marked its best month since 1987.

But “zombie” companies that barely earn enough to service interest on corporate debt outperformed the index by more than ever before in April.

Even the usually bullish Jim Cramer says, “The market got ahead of itself,” and advises to wait “for the market to go lower to do any buying.”

April was the S&P 500’s best month since 1987. The large-cap index opened the month at the 2,498.08 level and closed Thursday at 2,912.43 for a whopping 16.5% rally.

But ballooning valuations may not be justified by the underlying finances of many S&P 500 companies. While earnings crashed in the first quarter and will likely be worse for quarter two, a corporate debt bubble remains a ticking time bomb for many companies.

The rise of “zombie” companies, just barely able to service the interest on their debt without paying down the principal, poses a severe risk to the stock market rally.

https://www.ccn.com/sp-500-zombie-apocalypse-looms-for-the-stock-market/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/buffett-on-why-he-hasnt-made-any-big-investments-we-dont-see-anything-that-attractive.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-never-developed-intl/index.html

Bare i løpet av de siste 5 ukene er det oppgitt at 30 millioner mennesker har blitt arbeidsledige i USA. Et nærmest ufattelig høyt antall. Nå viser imidlertid statistisk materiale innhentet i perioden 22.mars til 18.april at katastrofen trolig er enda mye større fordi registreringssystemet er overbelastet og mer eller mindre har brutt sammen. Således kan det faktiske antallet nye arbeidsledige i USA siste 5 uker være så høyt som 45 millioner! Helt utrolig!

Posted April 28, 2020 at 7:00 am by Ben Zipperer and Elise Gould

Unemployment filing failures

Millions of the newly jobless are going without benefits as the unemployment system buckles under the weight of new claims, according to our new national survey, conducted in mid-April.

For every 10 people who said they successfully filed for unemployment benefits during the previous four weeks:

Three to four additional people tried to apply but could not get through the system to make a claim.

Two additional people did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so.

These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis. To quantify the undercount, we look at the 21.5 million workers who filed for unemployment benefits from March 22 to April 18. Our results suggest:

An additional 7.8 to 12.2 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier.

After accounting for these workers—who applied but could not get through or did not try because of the difficult process—about half of potential UI applicants are actually receiving benefits.

When we extrapolate our survey findings to the full five weeks of UI claims since March 15, we estimate that an additional 8.9–13.9 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier.

These findings on the millions of frustrated filers and the UI system’s low payment rate highlight the need for policies to improve rather than hinder the UI application process. At a minimum, states should presume everyone is eligible and immediately pay benefits, only verifying eligibility and reviewing claims after the unprecedented wave of claims slows down

New survey confirms that millions of jobless were unable to file an unemployment insurance claim

https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-filing-failures-new-survey-confirms-that-millions-of-jobless-were-unable-to-file-an-unemployment-insurance-claim/

Mer protese må til (så lenge det går) .

Fed says it will start buying corporate bond ETFs in early May

Published: May 4, 2020 at 10:17 a.m. ET
By Sunny Oh

The Federal Reserve said it would start buying corporate bond exchange-traded funds in early May, as it offered up further details on its planned purchases of debt from U.S. businesses on Monday. Soon after, the central bank will start purchasing debt issued by companies directly, and from the market. The Fed also said it could buy an entire sale of corporate bonds by itself. Even without having yet bought bonds, the central bank's announcement of the lending programs have been enough to arrest turmoil in corporate bond trading, and has allowed businesses like Boeing to issue debt to raise cash.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-says-it-will-start-buying-corporate-bond-etfs-in-early-may-2020-05-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts


‘That kind of behavior makes no sense,’ Chamath Palihapitiya says about buybacks and dividend payouts over the past decade

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-companies-spent-7-trillion-on-buybacks-and-dividends-and-been-rewarded-by-coronavirus-bailouts-says-social-capital-ceo-2020-04-22?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

This year is lining up exactly like the 2000 dot-com bubble crash — stocks will drop 40% from here, former Goldman manager says

Published: May 4, 2020 at 11:50 a.m. ET
By Callum Keown

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-year-is-lining-up-exactly-like-the-2000-dot-com-bubble-crash-stocks-will-drop-40-from-here-former-goldman-manager-says-2020-05-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts


Disney stock falls after analyst warns of ‘incredibly harmful’ fallout from COVID-19

Published: May 4, 2020 at 11:32 a.m. ET
By Emily Bary

Stock downgraded at MoffettNathanson due to concerns that impact to parks and other businesses could take ‘longer than most anticipate’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disney-stock-falls-after-analyst-warns-of-incredibly-harmful-fallout-from-covid-19-2020-05-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Capitol Report

The U.S. Treasury plans to borrow a record $3 trillion in the second quarter to fight coronavirus—more than twice what it borrowed in all of fiscal 2019

Published: May 4, 2020 at 3:31 p.m. ET
By Greg Robb

Agency sees need to borrow additional $677 billion in July-September quarter

The numbers: The Treasury Department said Monday it expects to borrow a record $3 trillion in the second quarter to pay for the coronavirus relief measures passed by Congress. Looking ahead to the third quarter, Treasury said it expects to borrow $677 billion.

What happened: In February, Treasury had been assuming a modest paydown of debt. This is relatively normal as April 15 is the tax deadline for households. But borrowing plans were upended by the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the country. The borrowing estimate assumes a cash balance of $800 billion at the end of June and at the end of September. Additional details of the borrowing needs will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday.

Big picture: Congress has approved nearly $3 trillion to aid businesses and workers hurt by the virus and the stay-at-home orders and Treasury has to issue new debt to pay for the spending. The government also lost revenue from the deferral of taxes from April until July. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said lawmakers will likely need to pass additional measures if the economy is to rebound strongly later this year.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-treasury-plans-to-borrow-a-record-3-trillion-in-the-second-quarter-to-fight-coronavirusmore-than-twice-what-it-borrowed-in-all-of-fiscal-2019-2020-05-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

LIVE UPDATE FRA Washington Post. Perfect setting for mer børsfest? Ja, skal man tro på US futures som real-time indikerer børsåpning i overkant av +1% når USA-børsene åpner.

Live Updates

Live updates: Draft report predicts 3,000 daily coronavirus deaths by June as states push to reopen

By
Teo Armus and
Antonia Noori Farzan
May 5, 2020 at 11:22 a.m. GMT+2

As President Trump cheers on governors who cast aside public health benchmarks to reopen their states’ economies, a draft government report predicts that the daily death toll from the coronavirus could reach 3,000 by June 1 — twice the current rate. The alarming projections come as the Senate returns to work and a smattering of states begin to slowly lift restrictions on gyms, beaches, restaurants and retail stores.

Meanwhile, financial woes from the pandemic continue to mount. As the U.S. government tries to stave off economic collapse, the Treasury Department plans to borrow $3 trillion over three months — nearly twice the total amount of debt it took on last year.

Here are some significant developments:

A Family Dollar security guard in Flint, Mich., was fatally shot after telling a woman that her child had to wear a face mask to enter the store, according to prosecutors.

Meanwhile, a California man wore a Ku Klux Klan hood to go grocery shopping after San Diego County made face coverings mandatory in public. Police are looking into the incident.

U.S. pork production is down 50 percent, despite Trump’s order keeping meat plants open, Tyson Foods says.

Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, reiterated on Monday that it is unlikely that the coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, China, despite recent remarks from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump.

A Colorado man who drew attention for using social media to orchestrate an armed rally to protest stay-at-home orders was arrested after pipe bombs were found in his home.

The Supreme Court made history on Monday by hearing oral arguments via teleconference, allowing members of the public to listen in for the first time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/05/coronavirus-update-us/

Coronavirus has mutated

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-coronavirus-mutated-and-appears-to-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html


-----------------
"We are now in the ‘already squeezed the reasons for optimism out of the toothpaste tube’ phase and into ‘the hard part 2.0.’”

Summer could bring “hard economic data collapsing like we’ve never seen before, terrible corporate guidance, stories of pending bankruptcies,”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-trap-awaiting-the-stock-market-ahead-of-a-grim-summer-warns-nomura-strategist-2020-05-05?mod=article_inline

Løfter om at gull og grønne skoger venter etter at økonomien har passert en strekning med litt humpete vei, har vært å høre fra morgen til kveld hver eneste dag siden Fed kom på banen med 'all guns blazing' ultimo mars, og på disse løftene har børsene steget jevnt og trutt, lenge, 8men...


U.S. trade deficit soars 12% in March as coronavirus slams exporters and tourism

Published: May 5, 2020 at 9:43 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

Global pandemic causes tourism and travel to collapse

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-deficit-soars-12-in-march-as-coronavirus-slams-american-exporters-2020-05-05


'STARTING TO FEEL GOOD' Trump says US is coming back from coronavirus and blasts ‘FALSE’ leaked report daily deaths will DOUBLE by June

Mollie Mansfield, News Reporter
5 May 2020, 13:27Updated: 5 May 2020, 15:03

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11553127/trump-us-coronavirus-comeback-false-leaked-memo/


BREAKING|6 796 views|May 5, 2020,10:42am EDT

Trump Lashes Out At ‘Loser’ Anti-Trump GOP Group For Attack Ad

Jack Brewster
Jack BrewsterForbes Staff
Business
I'm a news reporter for Forbes.
Updated May 5, 2020, 12:58pm EDT

TOPLINE President Trump lashed out on Twitter Tuesday morning at the Lincoln Project—a group of anti-Trump Republicans—for an attack ad they made criticizing the president’s response to the coronavirus.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/05/05/trump-lashes-out-at-loser-anti-trump-gop-group-for-attack-ad/#1369c8ce7da8


DEBT

Consumer debt hits new record of $14.3 trillion

PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 5 202011:00 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/consumer-debt-hits-new-record-of-14point3-trillion.html


No, the Fed can’t save the junk bond market, Goldman warns

Published: May 5, 2020 at 4:06 p.m. ET
By Andrea Riquier

Over $6 billion has poured into the two biggest below-investment-grade bond funds since the Fed said it would start buying

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-the-fed-cant-save-the-junk-bond-market-goldman-cautions-2020-05-05


Disney earnings plummet more than 90% as coronavirus wipes out more than $1 billion

Published: May 5, 2020 at 4:28 p.m. ET
By Jeremy C. Owens

‘https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disney-earnings-plummet-more-than-90-as-coronavirus-wipes-out-1-billion-in-theme-park-sales-2020-05-05?mod=article_inline

Presidenten bare feier helsefaglige råd fra egen ekspertise (CDC) bryskt til siden. Børsfest it is... koste hva det koste vil... Dance Macabre ... en sikker vinner ... seiersdansen?

Coronavirus update: U.S. death toll tops 73,000, as Trump administration shelves ‘too cautious’ CDC guide on reopening

Published: May 7, 2020 at 11:24 a.m. ET
By Ciara Linnane

Tesla is gearing up to reopen California plant, and retailers Gap and Kohl’s are starting to open stores again

The number of U.S. fatalities from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 climbed above 73,000 on Thursday, as President Donald Trump’s administration said it is shelving recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on reopening safely because they were too cautious.

The Associated Press was first to report that the government had rejected the advice of its own public-health agency and had told the CDC a draft guide on reopening schools, restaurants, summer camps, churches, day care centers and more “would never see the light of day.” The recommendations included detailed flow charts to be used by local officials.

The news comes as an impatient Trump has repeatedly pushed for states to reopen, supported protests against lockdowns and other restrictions and contradicted medical advice from experts on the task force created to manage the pandemic.

“Local leaders and small businesses are looking to Washington for help ensuring safety for themselves, their workers, and their customers as this pandemic continues to ravage the country,” said Kyle Herrig, president of Accountable.US, a nonpartisan group. “Instead of offering them assistance, Trump is opting to hide the expertise of his own administration’s scientists and public health professionals. What could Trump possibly gain by hiding this guidance, besides covering up his rush to reopen and his administration’s failures with the COVID-19 response?”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-us-death-toll-tops-73000-as-trump-administration-shelves-too-cautious-cdc-guide-on-reopening-2020-05-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Helt utrolig å se hvordan elendig makro og real økonomi blir skubbet til side. Det er totalt mørke tall all over, men bobla hypes til bristepunktet. Når smeller det?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-devastating-the-jobs-number-will-be-bad-but-the-reality-is-actually-much-worse-warns-the-feds-neel-kashkari-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-pricier-than-its-been-since-the-dot-com-bubble-even-as-earnings-forecasts-continue-to-plunge-2020-05-06?mod=mw_latestnews

Vi er fortsatt i bull-trap og fornektelse. Men deretter kommer frykt og kapitulasjon:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4342873-great-bear-trap-bull-trap

Vanskelig å si, men ser ikke lenger bort fra at de greier å holde ballongen oppblåst til Q2 resultatene fra selskapene begynner å tikke inn med den innsatsviljen som legges for dagen for å holde børsene oppe. Er vel av frykt for disse presidenten nå går berserk og feier alle helsefaglige råd til side og fremstår som helt desperat etter å få fart på økonomien, uansett hva det vil koste i form av enda flere tapte menneskeliv. Faren med dette er selvsagt at landskapet kan bli for makabert for de fleste. Hvis et slikt backflash inntrer, sprekker nok bobla mye tidligere, på ganske spektakulært vis, vil jeg tro. Tall for det siste døgnet i USA viser 2 400 nye dødsfall og 24 000 nye smittede.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-daly-says-her-contacts-dont-expect-quick-economic-recovery-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

Two Federal Reserve district bank president said Thursday they don’t expect a quick rebound in economic activity even as states scale back lockdown measures.

“No one who I talked is looking at a V-shaped recovery, they really think this will be gradual and it will take time to build confidence back up for both workers and consumers,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

In a separate talk, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was also pessimistic.

“I think...for the country the short-term outlook is really bleak,” he said.

“The best case scenario would be a quick bounceback, but it’s hard for me to see that until we get some type of technological breakthrough in a vaccine or a therapy,” Kashkari said.

“We should plan for a much more gradual recovery,” he said.

Bare presidenten & Co som har troa nå. Fed var mye mer optimistisk med henblikk på 'quick recovery' ultimo mars. Har også brent mye krutt...

S&P 500 henger nå noe enormt på voldsom oppgang i 5 av 500 aksjer.

May 07, 2020 01:09 PM 13 MINUTES AGO

FAANGs plus Microsoft increase hold on S&P 500 index

CHARLES MCGRATH

The FAANGs and Microsoft made up more than a fifth of the market cap of the S&P 500 index as of Tuesday. That hold, about 22%, increased from 18% at the end of the fourth quarter and 17% as of Sept. 30. Netflix and Amazon.com have led the group as the services of the two online giants have been even higher demand than before stay-at-home mandates were passed.

With Microsoft, Apple and Amazon all boasting $1 trillion-plus market caps, the performance of the index is more dependent on the success and failure of a smaller-than-ever number of holdings. Their combined market cap compared to the total size of the cap-weighted index rose 1.7 percentage points over the first four months of the year.

Netflix stock is up about 34% on the year; its streaming traffic has spiked as users remain homebound. Amazon shares are 27% higher in 2020 with shoppers avoiding brick-and-mortar stores due to COVID-19. The online retailer's 2017 acquisition of grocer Whole Foods has also helped drive revenues as the demand for grocery-delivery services has exploded. Returns in 2020 for Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook haven't been as robust as there contemporaries; the two have outperformed the S&P 500 by 12.4% and 13%, respectively.

https://www.pionline.com/interactive/faangs-plus-microsoft-increase-hold-sp-500-index

En lammende pandemi og enorm arbeidsledighet legger (foreløpig) ingen demper på ellevill børsfest. Tvert imot...

The Nasdaq is now up for the year — here are the index’s best-performing stocks

Published: May 7, 2020 at 4:29 p.m. ET

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-now-up-for-the-year-here-are-the-indexs-best-performing-stocks-2020-05-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Det er vanskelig å skjønne at både arbeidsledigheten og New York børsen kan stige samtidig.